Fresno State vs Kansas Prediction

[SBR Andy]

Week 0 CFB action features a matchup between the Bulldogs and Jayhawks and SBR's Isaiah Sirois shares his early Fresno State vs Kansas prediction:

Kansas -12.5 (-110 Caesars)

"When making our Fresno State vs. Kansas early predictions, it’s impossible to ignore how unremarkable new Fresno State quarterback E.J. Warner has been.

The journeyman quarterback led the American in interceptions in the last three seasons. The gunslinger’s risk tolerance has helped his team score some wins, but last year saw him record a career-worst passing efficiency rating of 120.7.

Jalon Daniels wasn’t any better at avoiding interceptions last year, as he led the Big 12 in them, but that marked a career-worst performance. Daniels sports a career passing efficiency rating of 137.7, much better than Warner’s 124.6, all while averaging 28.1 rushing yards per game. Warner, not unlike his father, lacks that degree of athleticism. He averages negative rushing yards per game due to sack yardage.

Kansas head coach Lance Leipold hasn’t turned this team into a juggernaut, but after a shaky first few years, his Jayhawks are 14-11 against the spread since 2023 - and 9-4 at home. New Fresno State head coach Matt Entz did a lot of things right at North Dakota State, but trotting out Warner and a “gritty” roster probably won’t be enough to keep this within the current number.

When Daniels opened at home last year, the Jayhawks throttled FCS Lindenwood by 45. The year before, Daniels made his first start in Week 2 and sank Illinois by 11, and in 2023, he opened the year with a 46-point win over FCS Tennessee Tech. Fresno State could bounce back in 2025, but probably not against the experienced tandem of Daniels and Leipold."


Can Fresno State keep it close or will this be a Kansas blowout? Posts your prediction below.

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Rob Paul posts his Fresno State vs Kansas pick as part of his NCAAF spread picks for Week 0:

Kansas -12.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"While it was a tough year for Kansas last season, five of its seven losses were by one score and it closed out the year by winning three of its last four games (all against ranked opponents). The Jayhawks return QB Jalon Daniels and rank No. 31 in the country in projected SP+ on offense, and are top 80 in returning production. Fresno State, on the other hand, has a new head coach in Matt Entz and is No. 116 in returning production. The Bulldogs named E.J. Warner (son of Kurt) their starting QB, who has substantially more turnover-worthy plays (62) than big-time throws (39) in his career."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Mike Spector is going the other way here:

Fresno State +14 (-118)

"If this game is close in the fourth quarter, look for Kansas to get tight after finishing 1-5 in one-possession games last season."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Gabe Henderson highlights some Fresno State vs Kansas betting notes in his Week 0 CFB betting trends:

- Kansas finished 5-7 ATS overall and 3-3 ATS at home* last season
- Tim Skipper covered at a 50% clip as Fresno State's interim head coach last season
- The Jayhawks are 4-0 SU and ATS in opening games under Lance Leipold
- Fresno State and Kansas combined to go 12-11-2 to the Under during the 2024 campaign
* Kansas played its home games in Kansas City with David Booth Memorial Stadium undergoing renovations

Prediction: Kansas -12.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Should you side with the familiar tandem of Leipold and Jalon Daniels at home, or the unknown of Matt Entz and E.J. Warner on the road? The answer should be obvious. Warner is too turnover prone to trust in a tough road environment, and Daniels is too good to slip up in this spot."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Rob Paul shares his best Fresno State vs Kansas player prop:

Jalon Daniels Under 205.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

"Taking the Under on Daniels' passing yards has more to do with the success I expect Kansas to have than with any questions about the senior QB. The Jayhawks are a double-digit favorite, and I'm taking them to cover in my college football Week 0 against the spread picks, so I don't think Daniels will need to go to the air often enough to hit this Over.

Last season, Daniels averaged 204.5 passing yards per game, and he fell short of this mark in seven of 12 games. With the Jayhawks still having a run-first approach under Lance Leipold, even with Devin Neal off to the NFL, I'm expecting Daniels and running backs Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Leshon Williams to carry the load on the ground.

With Matt Entz taking over as head coach, Fresno State has a lot of new faces and ranks just No. 104 in returning production, with most of last year's front seven gone. This same prop is set as low as 198.5 elsewhere with the same odds as this wager at BetMGM."