Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Prediction

[SBR Andy]

Week 0 of college football features a Conference USA matchup and SBR's Phillip Wood breaks it down in his early Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky prediction.

Sam Houston +10 (-110 BetMGM)

"When making the best Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky early predictions, you have to look at what each team returns. Sixteen of the Hilltoppers’ 22 offensive and defensive starters are transfers making team debuts on Saturday. Even if all of these players are great, there’s going to be a learning curve, as the entire offensive line gets used to playing together in front of a brand-new quarterback and running back duo.

Meanwhile, things are not nearly as different for the Bearkats. Eight of their 11 offensive starters were with the program last season, and running back Elijah Green is a welcome addition from Indiana. Defensively, the Bearkats got a makeover, with eight of 11 starters transferring from other programs. This could be a problem, but I expect mistakes from the Hilltoppers’ offense to offset any errors from the Bearkats’ defense.

Most of the best sports betting apps have this spread set at 10 points, and the public has been backing the Hilltoppers since the line for the game was announced. I’d happily take the Bearkats getting 10, but if you want to buy the extra half-point for safety, that wouldn’t be a bad idea."


Can Sam Houston hang in there or will Western Kentucky pull away? Post your prediction in this thread.

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Rob Paul shares his Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky pick as part of his NCAAF spread picks for Week 0:

Western Kentucky -9.5 (-122 FanDuel)

"While you could argue that Western Kentucky is dealing with more change than Sam Houston, that's nothing new to Hilltoppers head coach Tyson Helton. He's one of the best Group of Five head coaches when it comes to hiring coordinators and utilizing the transfer portal, and Helton is at his best when he makes a hire and brings in said hire's QB (see: Bailey Zappe, Zach Kittley).

This time, Helton hired Abilene Christian offensive coordinator Rick Bowie, who brings QB Maverick McIvor with him, and the pair should thrive against Sam Houston. The Bearkats are No. 109 in SP+ and No. 116 in returning production, plus they have a new head coach after K.C. Keeler went to Temple. And I, for one, am not convinced that hiring a newly fired offensive coordinator as your head coach is smart.

Though Phil Longo's air raid might work long-term for Sam Houston, playing basketball on grass in Big Red's house against a WKU team that also added Matthew Henry (Western Illinois), Jairus Mack (Charlotte), and La'Vell Wright (Austin Peay) is ill-advised."

[SBR Andy]

Another vote of confidence for the Bearkats from SBR's Mike Spector:

Sam Houston State +10.5 (-105 Caesars)

"Sam Houston finished in the top 10 of all FBS teams in turnover margin last season, and turnovers can be an important part of an upset. The Bearkats also return more offensive production (56%) than Western Kentucky (38%), and the Hilltoppers could start slow after breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Gabe Henderson offers some Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky betting notes as part of his Week 0 CFB betting trends:

- Sam Houston was 7-6 ATS last season
- Western Kentucky is 43-35-2 ATS under Tyson Helton, including 7-7 last year
- The Conference USA contenders combined to go Under at a 62.96% clip in the previous campaign
- The Hilltoppers are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS versus the Bearkats since the latter joined the FBS
- Sam Houston and Western Kentucky's previous two meetings have gone Under the total

Prediction: Western Kentucky -10.5 (-108 DraftKings)

"Helton has a knack for turning FCS transfers from Texas into stars in Bowling Green, Ky. - just ask Bailey Zappe. His newest recruit, Abilene Christian transfer Maverick McIvor, makes his FBS debut in this Conference USA clash.

Phil Longo also makes his FBS debut as a head coach for a Sam Houston team that's been unable to beat the Hilltoppers in the last two seasons. I believe the wait for that elusive win will have to wait another year, as I trust the experience of the home team more than I do a road underdog.

The Bearkats returning zero defensive starters ultimately scares me off the Under, which seems like an obvious bet based on the trends. There are too many changes on both sidelines for me to bank on previous results."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Rob Paul shares his best Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky player prop:

Maverick McIvor Over 280.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

"Tyson Helton loves to bring in transfer QBs, and Maverick McIvor is the latest. He comes over from Abilene Christian with Rick Bowie, the Hilltoppers' new offensive coordinator, after throwing for the fourth-most yards in the FCS last season (3,814) - that included going for 502 in the Wildcats' lone game against an FBS team (Texas Tech).

Although Sam Houston had a top Group of Five team last season, this is a completely different-looking program with bench boss K.C. Keeler now at Temple and Phil Longo taking over as head coach. Longo's Bearkats sit just No. 109 in returning production, and SP+ has them ranked No. 135 on defense heading into the season.

Given Longo's offensive approach, don't expect Sam Houston's defense to get much rest in what could be a high-scoring game in The Houch. McIvor has plenty of weapons to expose the Bearkats, too, with FCS All-American Matthew Henry poised to shine."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Phillip Wood added a few player props for Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky:

Hunter Watson Over 180.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

"Last season, Watson was inconsistent. He threw for fewer than 100 yards four times, while topping 200 the same number of times. But it’s his performance against the same Hilltoppers that he’ll face Saturday that stood out to me.

Despite playing less than a half of football, Watson threw for 128 yards and two touchdowns, in what was setting up to be a back-and-forth game. With the total set at 61.5 on Saturday, and the Hilltoppers heavily favored, I expect Watson to rely heavily on his arm in this game. Against a defense with eight transfers starting, he has the clear advantage.

Right now, FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering this prop. They’re asking -114 for the Over, which implies a 53.27% chance Watson hits this mark."


Michael Phoenix II to score a touchdown (+210 Caesars)

"Phoenix was the Bearkats' fifth-leading receiver last season, but he should see an increased role this year with three of the four players who finished ahead of him no longer with Sam Houston. Plus, he had a season-high 56 yards and a touchdown last season against Western Kentucky, so he should be comfortable Saturday."


Maverick McIvor u1.5 TD Passes (+152 FanDuel)

"McIvor threw for 30 touchdowns last season, but he is about to take a huge step up in competition, as the Bearkats' defense is tougher than any he faced last year."