Someone Talk me out on Air Force ML

[andrewaxia]

AIR FORCE:
Top ranked pass defense
Top 5 ranked rushing offense
Houston's run defense ranks in the bottom 3rd

Air Force went nose to nose with TCU earlier this year and game come down to the final minute

Weather conditions call for rain at last check.

[BiffTFinancial]

you'd better ask someone other than me. AFA, 32-27. top D vs top O, i like the top D. plus, it's the ARMED FORCES BOWL. the refs won't want to discourage the troops during a time of war.

[MJT1212]

Don't ****in do it

[BigdaddyQH]

You can get the Air Force as high as +175. They lost to TCU by 3, Navy by 3 in OT, and to Utah by 7. These two teams got together lat year in a Bowl Game and Houston at 7-5 beat the Air Force, who was 8-4, by 6 points. The MWC is red hot, as Wyoming, BYU, and Utah has proven. All 3 dogs. All 3 outright winners. I certainly would not talk you out of taking the Air Force at +170 or higher.

[nick2060]

I can't say i want to talk you out of it. Personally dont like it enough to play it but history says the better defense usually wins in a situation like that.

[LLXC]

I took the points.

[masr]

Air Force lost one game all year by more than 7 points and that was a 38-21 setback at BYU in the season finale. The Air Force defense held everyone else to 23 points or less, and 8 teams were held to 17 points or less. The Falcons rank 3rd nationally in rushing offense while the Cougars rank 112th against the run. Houston boasts the top passer in QB Case Keenum, but he was No. 2 last year. Air Force has the nation's top-ranked pass defense. These teams met last year in the same postseason game and Houston won 34-28.
Damn its tempting, I took the pts.

AF+7 -140

[THE PROFIT]

Bowl teams off a loss in the same bowl they played LY are 3-12 ATS
MWC 3-0 SU & ATS so far all as dogs
Service academies 20-8 in bowls. 12-2 ATS in bowls if they allow less than 20 points per game.

Oh shit, I'm sorry! you wanted talked OUT of it!

[THE PROFIT]

AF wins by 3-6 but back it up with the points just to be safe!

[Snowball]

I wouldn't attempt to talk you out of it, but I am on Houston because I don't believe AF has faced any passing attack as high-powered as Houston's this year.
We're talking about averaging 450 yards per game in the air.
Who on this list can do that ?

http://www.goairforcefalcons.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/afa-m-footbl-sched.html

[2daBank]

nor has keenan faced a pass defense even ranked in the top 80...so saying air force hasnt seen a passing attack like this doesnt mean a whole lot as hou hasnt saw a pass defense anything close to this...the 1 thing that we should all be able to agree on is the thing air force does well offensively hou is less than pathetic at stopping...hard not to like air force in this one with the points and ml..

[Hilljacademics]

I took the points, AF +5

[Kustac]

good point about the rain - sounds like this could be a very good call

[andrewaxia]

Updated weather forcast calls for little or no rain, although it sounds like QB Tim Jefferson will play.

[PAULYPOKER]

According to my poll series experiment of yey ney it is not looking good for Air Force
unless my poll drastically changes before game time the position of outcome that Air Force is in according to my poll lost 6 out of 8 times you are welcome to check this out for yourself and use info if you want out

PS this is the score as of now New POLL SCORE HOU.3 1/2 AIR F. 8

[Busterflywheel]

Air Force offense vs. Houston defense
• Houston has the size up front and the team speed to slow an Air Force ground game that is one of the most productive in the country. However, the Falcons' option, designed quarterback keeper and misdirection packages will test the discipline of what can be an overaggressive Cougars defense. While they aren't much of a threat to break long runs, QB Tim Jefferson and FB Jared Tew make the most of what the defense gives them. Jefferson reads his keys well when running the option and his blocks well when he keeps the ball -- whether it's off the option or on a designed quarterback keeper. Tew has the lateral mobility to find seams inside and he shows good burst through the hole. Of even greater concern for Houston is RB Asher Clark. If the Cougars' perimeter defenders get caught too far inside or collapse on Jefferson prematurely, Clark has the burst and shiftiness to make them pay.

• Playing sound assignment football isn't the only concern when it comes to slowing Air Force's ground game. Much like Georgia Tech, the Falcons' offensive line makes up for its glaring lack of size (average weight: 261 pounds) by attacking the legs of opposing defensive linemen. Houston's front four will have to use their hands to push down and fight over these blocks while keeping their eyes up so they can locate the ball. In addition, Air Force is effective at covering up defenders at the second level, so the Cougars' linebackers must be strong and aggressive with their hands and get off those blocks quickly -- something they struggled with during the Conference USA championship game.

• Since Air Force runs more than five times as often as it passes, Jefferson doesn't get many chances to throw downfield. In the limited looks we have had of his throwing the ball, he's shown the arm strength necessary to strike deep when the defense bites on play-action. However, it's important for him to make sure that CBs Jamal Robinson and Brandon Brinkley jump up before he looks for one his receivers on the outside because both are playmakers. In addition, Jefferson's deep ball can sail on him, and his fundamentals must be sound. The Falcons have to give him space to step into his throws and follow through when they do look to stretch the field.

Scouts' Edge
On paper, this shapes up as a close game. After all, Air Force appears capable of controlling the clock and keeping Keenum on the sidelines by establishing the run against a penetrable Houston run defense. In addition, the Falcons' stingy pass defense should be able to slow Keenum down. Don't be fooled by the statistics in this case, though. Air Force's pass defense buckled against BYU in the regular-season finale, and it will have an even tougher time keeping Houston under wraps. Look for Keenum to help the Cougars build a first-half lead, and the run-heavy Falcons aren't built to come from behind.

Prediction: Cougars 35, Falcons 21 ESPN INSIDER SCOUTS

[andrewaxia]

Reverse line movement in this game.

58 % on Houston yet the line has come down to 4.5

[JamesBrown]

Both Air Force QB's are questionable, although they run a crap load anyways. I still like Houston to win by 7 here. Good Luck

[HoulihansTX]

Reverse line movement in this game. 58 % on Houston yet the line has come down to 4.5

That is not RLM.

Besides the 58% represents the number of bets, not amount of money on either side.


Al that said I snatched AF +5 about 3 weeks ago knowing that the line would drop.

[andrewaxia]

Jefferson is healthy and playing

[Flight]

Besides the 58% represents the number of bets, not amount of money on either side.

If that is true, the consensus number really doesn't mean much? How many $5 bettors are there at 5Dimes?

[angelodebo]

loving Air Force. These "high powered" offenses usually are a little rusty after taking a few weeks off. I think Air Force jumps on them early and controls the game through their offensive attack (running the ball).

I like Air Force!

[andrewaxia]

Very good start

[andrewaxia]

Touchdown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[andrewaxia]

Too easy

[Slate]

Hope no one talked you out of Af ml.

[xxbadazxx]

BRILLIANT!!!!!