neeed help and opinion on 1Q lines.. very interested.. READ

mdemps9190 · 11-14-09, 01:55 AM

My book (bodog unfortunately) closes quarter lines about 15-20 minutes before kickoff for this reason i assume. I'd say its a pretty big advantage and whoever you bet with isn't very smart.

zerodegre · 11-14-09, 01:59 AM

thanks man.. maybe i can make some money this way!!

zerodegre · 11-14-09, 02:02 AM

i also noticed something else.. 1q lines juice is wacky.. example

UAB is +135 -1/2 point tomm
missourri +130 -1/2

why is this??

zerodegre · 11-14-09, 02:38 AM

anyone else's opinion... going to test this tommorrow on a few 12 oclock games.. please give opinion

MTek · 11-14-09, 02:49 AM

a similar edge is....1/2 time bets of a game ur watching...if the momentum is really going in 1 teams favor, bet them at 1/2 time.
The books dont watch the games and generally split the "game" numbers in half giving a huge advantage to a team that's rolling

it sounds simple and I generally make out better with 1/2 time bets then I do betting the whole game

zerodegre · 11-14-09, 02:54 AM

but do you think it is an advantage to play the 1q team getting the ball first?

Nguyen · 11-14-09, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by zerodegre

Ok guys, the online guy i bet with will allow me to do this.. not sure if they are aware. When a game is about to start, i can still put a bet in after I know who gets the ball first to start the game. i have about a minute window to get it in.. almost till the balll is kicked.

I played the bears 1q last night +1/2 cause they got the ball first and won..

Question.. do other books allow this?? and do you this is a big advantage or not for 1q lines??

thanks guys.. need feedback!!

Who is your sportsbook?

zerodegre · 11-14-09, 04:18 AM

independent

do you think it is an advantage to bet the team who gets ball first?

AZZY · 11-14-09, 08:51 AM

I've tried this strategy intermittently over the past 2-3 years with intermittent success.

First, it's a hassle watching, waiting, in the ready position, to see who's won the toss and who's receiving and then srambling to place the bet -- about 50% of the time I click the wager button and miss the timeline by a few seconds. That can be frustrating, but still, about 50% of the time I have time to place the wager.

Then it seems things always go one of three ways during the 1Q:

a) The receiving team goes down the field and scores -- or at least has the ball two possessions to one -- and leads at the end of the first quarter, and I congratulate myself on a great win and wonder why I didn't wager more [knowing the stats were in my favor!]. or

b) The receiving team doesn't score on the first possession -- or even worse, fumbles or gives up a pick-6 -- and is down right away... or at least (given no score and the team has to punt) it's 50-50 at that point with each team getting about one scoring drive opportunity before the end of the quarter. or

c) Some other wierd combination of events occurs that no one could have ever predicted!

So I've won a few of these bets but lost a few too. Can't tell you off the top of my head the exact percentage, but probably about 40-50%.

Statistically it seems to make sense to take the receiving team as they generally [can be expected to] have two scoring opportunities to their opponent's one [and I have a feeling that if stats could be gathered over every game in the last 20 years, the receiving team in the 1Q would have a slight scoring edge], but... it seems almost anything can happen in just one randomly-selected quarter (at least the quarters I bet).

I too would be interested if anyone's been keeping stats/results or if anyone has found success with this technique...

GL/AZZY

iceminers26 · 11-14-09, 08:58 AM

I have to agree with Azzy on this one.

First, it is an advantage because you know who gets the ball, but what you don't know is what the hell they are going to do with it. There are numerous outcomes, td, fd, punt, fumble, pick/6, etc. Therefore, I don't really agree with this philosophy and feel you might push yourself to bet plays you normally would not make, especially under the gun as time is running out to make the play.

In the end, I think your better to just lay off this approach. However, if you have enough time where you get to see where the receiving team returns the ball to on the kickoff, that would be a huge advantage.

zerodegre · 11-14-09, 11:57 AM

thanks