SBR moderator and statistical handicapping expert Justin7 and SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak once again tackle college football with a preview of Week 11, and Justin reveals his pick of the week, yet again a huge 30+ point underdog.
Mississippi St. has attracted attention on SBRForum.com as a side with possible value as a double-digit home dog to No. 3 Alabama. Mississippi St. has hung tough at home with similarly elite teams multiple times this year, losing by less than the posted total in this game in each one, including one game against top-ranked Florida. Mississippi St. is also off of a bye week, which may help them in the health and preparation departments, and this is a game that should be run-oriented and relatively low-scoring, which could further serve to keep the score close. Alabama though, does have a truly great defense, and a big question in this game is how Mississippi St.’s quality running game led by star back Anthony Dixon will fare against Alabama’s elite run D.
No. 22 BYU is a 26.5-point road fave at New Mexico, but that kind of margin of victory on the road against bad teams has proven to be easily attainable by the Cougars this year. Loshak and Justin are split on their leans in this game.
No. 8 Pittsburgh is only a 6.5-point home fave over Notre Dame, who fell out of the Top 25 last week with an outright loss to Navy as an 11-point home fave, a game previewed by Loshak and Justin on SBR.tv where Justin expressed a lean in favor of Navy. The Fighting Irish again bring their awesome passing attack but little else to this game, and their glaring weaknesses on defense and on the run may be too great to keep this game competitive.
No. 11 USC normally dominates No. 25 Stanford at home, but this year could provide a different result as Stanford is much improved while USC looks more vulnerable than they have been in a while. Justin comments on the line of USC -10.5, and gives an interesting way to possibly look for value in this game at the half.