MIAMI OHIO vs Bowling Green

**Scorpion** · 11-12-09, 11:34 AM

Gold Sheet CFB

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12

*Bowling Green 31 - MIAMI-OHIO 23—Miami has covered 5 of last 6, thanks
in large part to blossoming frosh QB Dysert (1118 YP, 7 TD passes last 3
games), but RedHawks have just 1 SU win. But BG QB Sheehan (2nd in the
nation in total offense) unlikely to be out-produced by Dysert, especially
considering the fact that Falcs have won 3 in a row SU away and have covered
14 of last 17 on the road.
(08-Miami 27-B. GREEN 20...M.17-14 M.43/218 B.26/80 B.21/34/1/224 M.11/24/0/129 M.0 B.0)

(08-Miami +9' 27-20 07-MIAMI -1 47-14 06-Miami +4 9-7...SR: Bowling Green 35-25-5)

**Scorpion** · 11-12-09, 11:35 AM

Marc Lawrence

Thursday, November 12

MIAMI OHIO over Bowling Green by 1

The 4-5 Falcons kept their bowl hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory
at Buffalo last Tuesday and if they want to keep it going they’ll have to do
it against an opponent who they’ve only defeated once since 1997. The 1-9
RedHawks have dominated the series, winning 9 of the last 10 SU and 8 of 10
on the ATS scoreboard, including all four SU and ATS as dogs. While the Falcons have been money in the bank on the road against losing opposition with a 10-0
SU and 9-1 ATS log, and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win, we’ll lean to the
hard-trying ‘Hawks who have cashed a trifecta by winning the last 3 games SU
in the series – all as pups. Make it a superfecta!

NO ILLINOIS over Ball St by 20

Gonad fans have been nothing but blue since starting the 2008 season 12-0.
A win over lowly Eastern Michigan, despite passing for only 1 yard, may have
halted the Cardinals’ 9-game losing skid (and HC Stan Parrish’s personal 32game
skein), but fans once again have their heads hanging low after a 20-17
Halloween home loss to Ohio U. And it only gets harder as they end their
season with the top three MAC West contenders, including this Thursday
night visit to Dekalb. Jerry Kill’s 6-3 bunch will be looking to avenge a 4514
thrashing from last season and they have the Huskies to do it. They’re
averaging over 30 PPG and their three losses were by a combined 12 points.
Talk about a “Ball-drop” – the Cardinals were installed as 8.5-point favorites
two years ago on this field and now arrive as 17-point dogs. Don’t let the
double-digits scare you, as the hosts are a solid 3-0 ATS in LHG’s versus
conference opponents. Our system book says NIU will go for the “Kill” and
so do we.

South Florida over RUTGERS by 3

The Big East joins the weekday mix but this one’s not worth missing ‘CSI’ or
‘The Mentalist’ over. Both squads will be bowling for the 5th straight season
but minor ones at best. Good and bad ATS numbers litter both sides as Greg
Schiano’s Scarlet Knights are a solid 7-1 ATS at home with rest but just 4-9 ATS at
home off a SU dog win. Meanwhile, Jim Leavitt’s crew enters with a steady 5-1
ATS mark off a SU dog win but a winless 0-4 ATS Thursday log. With the visitors
looking to avenge a 49-16 home loss last season – their worst ever in Big East
competition – we’ll jog with the Bulls tonight in New Brunswick.

**Scorpion** · 11-12-09, 11:36 AM

Gold Sheet CFB

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12

*Bowling Green 31 - MIAMI-OHIO 23—Miami has covered 5 of last 6, thanks
in large part to blossoming frosh QB Dysert (1118 YP, 7 TD passes last 3
games), but RedHawks have just 1 SU win. But BG QB Sheehan (2nd in the
nation in total offense) unlikely to be out-produced by Dysert, especially
considering the fact that Falcs have won 3 in a row SU away and have covered
14 of last 17 on the road.
(08-Miami 27-B. GREEN 20...M.17-14 M.43/218 B.26/80 B.21/34/1/224 M.11/24/0/129 M.0 B.0)

(08-Miami +9' 27-20 07-MIAMI -1 47-14 06-Miami +4 9-7...SR: Bowling Green 35-25-5)

*NORTHERN ILLINOIS 30 - Ball State 20—NIU controls its fate in MAC
West, and Huskies have won and covered all 3 conference games at home, by
aggregate 115-19 score. Jr. RB Spann (15 TDs in ‘09, 455 YR last 3 games)
and a stout defense have led the surge, overcoming injury to QB Harnish. But
id, Ball State is 3-0 as a road dog TY, and sr. RB MiQuale Lewis (461 YR last
3 gms.) settling in behind young but improving OL. TV—ESPNU
(08-BALL ST. 45-N. Ill. 14...B.25-12 B.40/219 N.29/160 B.19/23/0/310 N.14/22/1/115 B.0 N.1)
(08-BSU -9' 45-14 07-Bsu -9 27-21 06-Niu -6' 40-28...SR: Ball State 20-14-2)

*RUTGERS 23 - South Florida 16—Scrambling USF RS frosh QB Daniels an
unpredictable wild card, leading Bulls to home win over West Va. with 3 TDP
& 104 YR in last game, a week after contributing just 104 total yards (and 2 ints.)
in blowout loss at Pitt. Prefer more reliable Rutgers, which has won 6 of 7 since
opening wipeout by undefeated Cincy. Blue-chip true frosh QB Savage
ascending rapidly for Scarlet Knights, who have enough athleticism on defense
to pin down Daniels. TV—ESPN
(08-Rutgers 49-S. FLA. 16...S.25-20 R.35/127 S.28/76 S.31/48/3/328 R.19/30/2/294 R.0 S.3)
(08-Rutgers +8 49-16 07-RUTGERS +2 30-27 06-Rutgers -3' 24-22...SR: Rutgers 3-1)

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-12-09, 11:37 AM

So what I see is that none of these games are good wagers. They are split outright on two games and are split spreadwise on the third.

**Scorpion** · 11-12-09, 11:41 AM

or maybe they are just bad handicappers

**Scorpion** · 11-12-09, 11:59 AM

Winning Points CFB

Miami O.* over Bowling Green by 1 (Thursday)

Sometimes a very tough loss is the precursor to a break-through win, and the way
that the RedHawks competed from behind at Temple last week sets them up to get
over the hump vs. the soft Falcon defense (only three takeaways in six M.A.C.
games). MIAMI 31-30.

Northern Illinois* over Ball State by 14 (Thursday)

A late-season bye can be a boost for the Cardinals, who are 1-4 in league play
despite winning the rushing battle four times, and that ground game can slow this
tempo to make the pointspread look even larger. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 30-16.

South Florida over Rutgers* by 2 (Thursday)

Bulls should arrive with a vengeance after viewing films of last year’s 49-16 home
debacle vs. the Scarlet Knights, especially since it was more of a giveaway (six
turnovers) than any kind of physical domination. SOUTH FLORIDA 24-22