ackem's week 11 early leans (with writeups)

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

Houston -5 UCF was just dismantled by Texas' Spread Option offense and this week they will be dismantled by Houston's Spread offense. Houston has struggled with teams who can move the ball on the ground and UCF is not one of them. UCF averages 3.3 yards per rush and only 117 ypg. Their offense is nothing to be worried about and I expect Houston to have a field day against the UCF pass defense.

Tennessee +2 Ole Miss has just been playing bad football. They couldn't do anything against Alabama in their 22-3 loss at home. In that game they only had 197 total yards of offense. Tennessee's defense is almost as good as Alabama's and I think they will struggle hear as well. Monte Kiffin will mix up their pass rush giving Jevin Snead a difficult time all day. these are just leans.

Here is the real angle on Houston.. This game isn't on turf. Houston has played 5 out of their 8 games on turf.
Grass game #1: upset Okla St.
Grass Game #2: loss to UTEP. It was a let-down spot.
Grass Game #3: 2nd lowest point total at Miss St.
Grass Games allowed running yards: Houston has been out-rushed, by 388 yards

Turf is their home field, and surface of choice. It allows all of those cutting routes that Houston runs to always be precise. Absent of slipping, and loss of traction. Grass not so much.

Houstons D is no-existent, and will let UCF to do what they please. Houston has been winning on borrowed time. I feel these close games will wear on them.

I'm on UCF ML

I love Tenn in this spot. They are playing out of their mind, and Kiffin has the offense progressing week-to-week. I'm on them also.

**ackem19** · 11-09-09, 09:36 PM

For me to bet against that explanation would just be thick-headed. I'll just stay away from that game. I appreciate the analysis.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

For me to bet against that explanation would just be thick-headed. I'll just stay away from that game. I appreciate the analysis.

Will always offer my 2 cents to fellow cappers. I have them in a letdown spot also. If you watched that Tulsa game last week you would have seen the incredible FG Houston's kicker hit to win the game. Borrowed time my friend. B2B road trips. On Grass. Primed to be upset once again.

**ackem19** · 11-09-09, 09:45 PM

Although I don't think it will effect my decision to not play this game, the UTEP game was on AstroPlay, not grass. Houston is actually 5-0 SU on grass and 4-0 ATS on grass this season. You can check it out on Statfox. http://www.statfox.com/cfb/expanded~...0091114UCF.htm

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

Although I don't think it will effect my decision to not play this game, the UTEP game was on AstroPlay, not grass. Houston is actually 5-0 SU on grass and 4-0 ATS on grass this season. You can check it out on Statfox. http://www.statfox.com/cfb/expanded~...0091114UCF.htm

Good job looking up the stats. I thought Houston HomeField was Turf. I guess we are on opposing sides. Gl on your other plays. HAHA

**ackem19** · 11-09-09, 10:00 PM

I thought their home field was turf as well but it turns out it's grass. Any thoughts on Clemson and TT? I'm also feeling pretty strong about Pitt .

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

I thought their home field was turf as well but it turns out it's grass. Any thoughts on Clemson and TT? I'm also feeling pretty strong about Pitt .

NO opinion on those games, but I leaned Norte Dame.

**ackem19** · 11-10-09, 02:24 AM

here are my weekday plays.

11/10/09 Buffalo -1 and Under 46
11/12/09 Miami (Oh) +3
11/12/09 N. Illinois -17
11/12/09 USF -1
11/13/09 Temple -4.5

**jds07v** · 11-10-09, 03:21 PM

ackem what are your thoughts on your canes? i dont like betting on my fav team but wanted to see what you would lean towards

**ackem19** · 11-10-09, 09:29 PM

jds07v,
the last few weeks, i've been really impressed with the tar heels pass defense. I like the Canes' backs but they lack consistency on the o-line and I think they're going to struggle to move the ball against UNC. plus, UNC at home. I hate to say it, but i'd lean towards UNC as the home dog.

**jds07v** · 11-10-09, 09:34 PM

thanks for your input. unc lost yet another starting rb. i like the idea of tyler yates throwing the ball as he is probably the most turnover prone qb in the acc

**joeygats** · 11-10-09, 09:36 PM

hou should blow out ucf..best game this week is indiana+26 its a gift.

**ackem19** · 11-12-09, 12:34 AM

Current Leans
Tennessee +5

Clemson -8

TCU -17
Utah has had one of the weakest schedules this year and yet they are ranked 16. TCU knows how important it is to beat Utah this week because if they do, they will solidify they're spot ahead of Boise St in the polls and give them the opportunity to play in a BCS Bowl game. TCU has been blowing out their opponents including a 28-7 victory @ BYU. TCU should run all over Utah.

Iowa +17
Even though they don't have Stanzi, they still have that Defense. Pryor has been inconsistent and inaccurate all year and that inaccuracy is going to kill OSU against an Iowa team that is great at forcing Turnovers. Ohio St. is primed for a Let Down this week after the high profile win at PSU and going home to play an Iowa team that is without their starting QB. OSU may win this won, but I don't see them covering the 17 point spread.

Fresno St. +7
In what should be a shootout, I think Fresno St will cover the spread and may even win outright. Ryan Matthews leads the nation with 7.1 yards per carry and Nevada hasn't played a good team since week 3 when they lost to Missouri. UNR is 2-4 ATS in games played on a Saturday while Fresno St is 6-1. Fresno St is 4-0 ATS this year in games played on turf while UNR is 3-2 ATS.

Notre Dame +7*(Still on the fence about this, i've been going back and forth and I may end up just dropping this game.)
Last year ND had one their best games in a 36-33 loss vs. Pitt. ND is in a situation as a road dog coming off a SU loss as double digit home favorite after the first month of the season and in that situation, teams are 35-12 ATS since 1992 (courtesy of Matt Fargo). No team this year has been able to stop the passing attack of ND and with the addition of Micheal Floyd, their passing attack will only be that much more dangerous. Plus, ND is coming off a game with a poor performance on National TV and the public should be on Pitt because of that. ND knows that a win here against a top 10 team would redeem their loss last week. On a personal note, everytime I've bet on a team with 3 straight ATS wins, they've lost. Examples include: Temple vs. Miami (OH). Duke vs. UNC. Cincinnati vs. UConn. Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M.

**2daBank** · 11-12-09, 02:14 AM

REALLY like the temple play

..i looked at tcu for quite awhile as much as id like to take them just seems like alot of points w 2 teams that run the ball so much..when i went through and saw what each of these 2 have been holding there opponents to the under seems like a good play 2 me