JDS Week 11 CFB

[jds07v]

I am playing a much smaller card this weekend. Instead of playing amateur psychologist with the big matchups, looking for revenge, bounce back, and let down spots, i will stick to what i know, ACC football.

4 Unit --- Clemson -6

Clemson has everything to play for in acc play, as they control their own destiny. I think they take this game heavily backed by the sunshine state speedsters in cj spiller and jacoby ford. deandre mcdaniel also leads the acc in picks. russell wilson is taking chances with the ball this year as he already has 11 interceptions. NC State is losing the turnover battle by 2 per game in ACC play.

I will likely sprinkle in some mid-week games, but will not have extensive writeups. expect 1 unit plays

[jds07v]

4 Unit --- Miami -3.5

More of the same in this game. In what I see as a lower scoring game, there is 3 important things to look at. Turnovers, Red zone success, and the big play.

In conference, the tarheels are at about -1 for turnovers per game. every time tyler yates drops back, tarheel fans must hold their breath. Miami is slightly better in TO's in conference, as they are + through their games.

UNC also struggles to score in the red zone, as they score a td only 40%. Miami holds the staggering advantage here, as they score a touchdown over 60% of the time inside the 20.

The big play factor is dominated by Miami. They are loaded with speed and the best place to showcase this might be special teams. Huge advantage here for UM

[jds07v]

2 Unit --- Wake Forest -4.5

Christian Ponder is out for this game with a separated throwing shoulder. Florida State brought a young QB last time they faced Wake Forest and it did not turn out very well. I'll take my chances with a veteran laden team with an experienced QB

Wake's style of offense is a perfect matchup with this FSU defense. This is the most undisciplined defense I have seen from FSU in 10+ years. Wake runs a ton of misdirection, which will put wake's skill players in space against a very poor tackling FSU squad. They were forced to play assignment football against Georgia Tech and we see how epic of a failure that was.

FSU has nothing to play for except an extremely low Prestige bowl bid. It would be easy for them to fold on the road after their season is, in effect, finished

[HoulihansTX]

4 Unit --- Miami -3.5 More of the same in this game. In what I see as a lower scoring game, there is 3 important things to look at. Turnovers, Red zone success, and the big play. In conference, the tarheels are at about -1 for turnovers per game. every time tyler yates drops back, tarheel fans must hold their breath. Miami is slightly better in TO's in conference, as they are + through their games. UNC also struggles to score in the red zone, as they score a td only 40%. Miami holds the staggering advantage here, as they score a touchdown over 60% of the time inside the 20. The big play factor is dominated by Miami. They are loaded with speed and the best place to showcase this might be special teams. Huge advantage here for UM

N. Caro. starting RB is out also.

[jds07v]

yeah draughn was their explosive back. i'm thinking we might see Little getting a lot of touches out of the backfield. i love the thought of yates having to throw the ball

[jds07v]

1 Unit --- Buffalo / Ohio over 46

[jds07v]

1 Unit --- Toledo +17

[jds07v]

1 Unit --- BGSU -3.5

1 Unit --- Bears +3

1 Unit --- Rutgers -2.5

1 Unit --- N. ill. / Ball St Over 46

[jds07v]

2-1-1. Up .9 Units for the day

[jds07v]

1 Unit --- Temple -4.5

1 Unit --- West Virginia / Cincy Under 55.5

[jds07v]

2-0, +2 Units

Sticking with my saturday plays, will not add any until sunday

saturday card:

4 Unit - Clemson -6

4 Unit - Miami -3.5

2 Unit - Wake Forest -4.5

[majorB]

Playing those 3 also... GL man

[jds07v]

same side?