Takes Money To Make Money (NCAA Week #11)

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 01:28 AM

LEANS, I repeat LEANS

Tuesday Night Play

Ohio U/ Buffalo UNDER???
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Wednesday Night Play

Central Mich -16
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Thursday Night Plays

Miami (OH) +3

Rutgers/S. Fla UNDER
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Temple -4.5

UCF +5.5

Iowa +14.5

Stanford +11

Fresno St. (+)

Norte Dame +7

Michigan/Wincy OVER

Iowa/Ohio St UNDER

Kentucky/Vandy UNDER

Troy/Arkansas OVER
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Sunday Night Play

ECU +6
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LEANS, I repeat LEANS

**Ralphie1412** · 11-09-09, 01:39 AM

Stanford +11 looks like sex on a stick

**Ralphie1412** · 11-09-09, 01:41 AM

Tennessee +3 and the UNDER

Ole Miss is garbage and they wont be able to score on monte and the boys. If Crompton can score a few times they should win outright.q

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

Tennessee +3 and the UNDER Ole Miss is garbage and they wont be able to score on monte and the boys. If Crompton can score a few times they should win outright.q

Tenn has won the last ten meetings in a row. Don't beat against streaks. Will be adding them.
Ole Miss has looked like garbage of late.

The only thing that I'm concerned about w/ Stanford is USC wanting Revenge, but that was two years ago.
Stanford looks like the better team right now.

**Ralphie1412** · 11-09-09, 01:48 AM

USC just isnt good. plain and simple. Im not as worried about revenge as I am stanford being in a letdown position. They just ROLLED Oregon, now I can see the public hammering that 11 to 9 and then the real USC showing up.

**eastvan09** · 11-09-09, 01:49 AM

Congrats Houlihan on a good week! I was 3/4 on totals won Oh St/ Pen State, Ok/Neb and Nev/SJ St... those 3 helped me beat the prick as well...ND/Navy generated enough yds for an over but left too many pts on field.

GL this week!

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

Stanford +11 looks like sex on a stick

Would you dare take them ML. I think I'm going to have to. USC is still getting to much credit.

**Ralphie1412** · 11-09-09, 01:56 AM

it might be worth a little sprinkle. nothing too crazy. This USC though is like the chicago bears, you never know who is going to show up. The more I look at South Carolina at home against Florida the more i like it. Columbia is a tough place to play and that defense is nasty. They will be fired up to play a florida team that hasnt looked too great. If you struggle with vandy at home you will struggle in columbia.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

USC just isnt good. plain and simple. Im not as worried about revenge as I am stanford being in a letdown position. They just ROLLED Oregon, now I can see the public hammering that 11 to 9 and then the real USC showing up.

I dont see anyone leting down when facing USC, if anything they should have been looking ahead during the Oregon game. USC is the most hunted team on the West Coast. Boise St. is a close second.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by eastvan09

Congrats Houlihan on a good week! I was 3/4 on totals won Oh St/ Pen State, Ok/Neb and Nev/SJ St... those 3 helped me beat the prick as well...ND/Navy generated enough yds for an over but left too many pts on field. GL this week!

Appreciate it. This week looks just as profitable for us. Beating the Prick?? Do you get paid for that?

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 02:01 AM

The spreads I really like are Iowa +14.5 & Fresno (+)

Ohio St still isnt any good, and they are in a letdown spot. Plus Iowa never won a game b/c of QB play. Its all about D with Iowa, and Pryor can kill Ohio St. at anytime.

Nevada hasnt played anyone of note for the past few weeks, and Fresno St. is one of the best underdog bets in the Nation. Fresno should win in a shootout. They will be my other ML bet.

**eastvan09** · 11-09-09, 02:06 AM

Keep the profitable weeks going! Stanford +11 is a strong lean, will be huge game for both. I learn a lot from your analysis as I'm a novice at betting cfb.

Beat the Prick contest is great for small stakes bettors like me. 4 picks per week and win when you finish with more units than the prick. you win a small stake at a different book each week (4x rollover). Also season end $10,000 grand prize purse.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 02:08 AM

Added Lean:

Sunday Night Play

ECU+6
-- Lets be serious, Tulsa sucks this year. This lean is purely from a Coaching advantage standpoint.

Skip Holtz > Tulsa's HC

**mcbaseball10** · 11-09-09, 02:44 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

The spreads I really like are Iowa +14.5

Ohio St still isnt any good, and they are in a letdown spot. Plus Iowa never won a game b/c of QB play. Its all about D with Iowa, and Pryor can kill Ohio St. at anytime.
.

Houl did you see the end of the Iowa game on Saturday? Vandenberg was absolutely terrible. He was 9 of 27 for 82 yards. Ohio State will blitz the hell out of him. Playing against Ohio State's defense at home this has the makings of a big win. Iowa will struggle to score and OSU's defense might be able to cover the spread as it did against Wisconsin.

I might be wrong on this, but if you really like Iowa you should wait till kickoff because this line should move in your favor.

**mcbaseball10** · 11-09-09, 02:50 AM

BTW, congrats on another nice week.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by mcbaseball10

Houl did you see the end of the Iowa game on Saturday? Vandenberg was absolutely terrible. He was 9 of 27 for 82 yards. Ohio State will blitz the hell out of him. Playing against Ohio State's defense at home this has the makings of a big win. Iowa will struggle to score and OSU's defense might be able to cover the spread as it did against Wisconsin. I might be wrong on this, but if you really like Iowa you should wait till kickoff because this line should move in your favor.

I wont knock a guy for having to come into a game, when not expecting to play. I will be waiting for line movement for all of the Dogs I play.

Also this isn't a lean on Iowa, as much as its a lean against Ohio St. Ohio St. is getting a lot of love for beating a bad Penn St. team, while Iowa is getting crushed for losing a game that their starting QB was INJ in. Its helps Ohio St. that this happened on the same day.

Perception vs. Reality = There isn't a 15 point separation between these teams, and conservative-ball on both sides equals a close low scoring game.

**mcbaseball10** · 11-09-09, 03:26 AM

I agree with you that it will be low scoring. Have you seen any numbers for the over/under yet or have any thoughts on what you think it should be?

I just don't see Iowa having the ability to score with Vandenberg. I understand what you are saying about him having to come into a game, but he is still a freshman with no experience starting his first game at Columbus. Turnovers and field position will lead to points for Ohio Sate. He also has no real threat at running back to help him out.

I guess I need to factor in Tressel's ultimate conservative nature, but they did try to mix it up a bit in the second half on Saturday.
Ohio State does always find ways to keep teams in games, but I think their defense will shut Iowa down completely.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 03:30 AM

Originally posted by mcbaseball10

I agree with you that it will be low scoring. Have you seen any numbers for the over/under yet or have any thoughts on what you think it should be? I just don't see Iowa having the ability to score with Vandenberg. I understand what you are saying about him having to come into a game, but he is still a freshman with no experience starting his first game at Columbus. Turnovers and field position will lead to points for Ohio Sate. He also has no real threat at running back to help him out. I guess I need to factor in Tressel's ultimate conservative nature, but they did try to mix it up a bit in the second half on Saturday. Ohio State does always find ways to keep teams in games, but I think their defense will shut Iowa down completely.

The O/U will be in the 42.5-40 range. UNDER is my play, no matter what.

Dont forget Pryor is still the QB, and Iowas D is very competent. Pryor cant make the intermediate throws, and will be forced to take shots down field. Iowa plays zone coverage, and will be able to shut that down. Expect a heavy run-oriented game on both sides. Defense is the biggest factor on Iowas side, and Ohio St. offense isn't scaring anyone.

**bypp** · 11-09-09, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

OVERALL Totals
(14-2) 88%

Very impressive. GL this week

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-09-09, 10:45 AM

I would not touch the Stanford-USC game. Remember, USC has played 6 out of it's first 9 games on ther road. Their two losses came on the road. The first words out of Pete Carroll's mouth after the Arizona State game were these: "We finally get to go home. We will turn this thing around." USC has no more away games. Stanford may be in let down mode. They may be just starting to roll. There are way too many intangables in this game to try and make any sense out of it.

**tblues2005** · 11-09-09, 11:51 AM

I am kind of shocked that you don't like Kansas State against Missouri. Missouri has been playing terrible as of late by losing to Baylor even. K. State beat a decent KU team last week.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by tblues2005

I am kind of shocked that you don't like Kansas State against Missouri. Missouri has been playing terrible as of late by losing to Baylor even. K. State beat a decent KU team last week.

Letdown spot after beating inner state rival Kansas. They will more than likely cover that spread, but I'm beating against teams in those kind of spots.

**wal66** · 11-09-09, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

it might be worth a little sprinkle. nothing too crazy. This USC though is like the chicago bears, you never know who is going to show up. The more I look at South Carolina at home against Florida the more i like it. Columbia is a tough place to play and that defense is nasty. They will be fired up to play a florida team that hasnt looked too great. If you struggle with vandy at home you will struggle in columbia.

Ralphie.........understand I am not trying to change your mind I am merely trying to give you a little info. The South Carolina game used to mean nothing arounf here, it was just another ho hum event. Even initially when Spurier took over it was just another game. Meyers looks at South Carolina and especially Spurier COMPLETELY differently. Call insecure, call it ego whatever but he always tries to put the hammer down on this team. I guess it's somehow something he feels he has to do to squash the lingering love for the Ol' Ball Coach here. There is a lil extra going into motivation this week. I know the points loos inviting and maybe they will pay off but just really look hard at this one from every angle.

Houl's hella week bro. Hella a run lately and those Totals..........out there in the big leagues. Keep up the great work guy.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 07:30 PM

Added Leans

Indiana +22

West Virgina +10

S. Carolina +15

Tenn +3

**Cougar Bait** · 11-09-09, 07:45 PM

Looks good Houlihans...some solid plays in there. Can't say I would put any money on ND, although I think that was one of your leans.

**eastvan09** · 11-09-09, 07:47 PM

FYI
At The Greek I see Iowa at +17, Indiana +27, W. Vir +10, and S. Car +15. Some serious line movement... I'm not ready to jump on these yet. Maybe Indiana get get above +28.5 by Sat...

**eastvan09** · 11-09-09, 07:48 PM

err i edited S.Car to +15...

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 07:54 PM

I haven't looked at the lines since this morning, but That Indiana line is getting ridiculous. They are catching Penn St. in a letdown spot, after losing to Ohio St. as a favorite. That will make it to the Official play list.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-09-09, 07:57 PM

I am pretty sure I will have to play Indiana as well. Had it on my leans at +22...

**eastvan09** · 11-09-09, 08:03 PM

I wonder if Indiana will get to +28 or if it will move down later in the week due to sharp $.... Anyone seen a total for Buffalo/Ohio, my books don't have one yet.

Ohio +1? Buffalo looked bad ag Bowling Green last week.. Fade Buffalo perhaps

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 08:09 PM

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**ackem19** · 11-09-09, 08:26 PM

good job last week. your picks look pretty good with the exception of Stanford. I would just be worried they are in a let down on spot on the road and if USC beats them, perhaps they can feel a bit redeemed (considering Stanford beat Oregon and Oregon beat USC). I will definitely be tailing your totals though haha.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 08:34 PM

*Official Plays*
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Tuesday Night Play

Ohio U/ Buffalo UNDER???
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Thursday Night Plays

Miami (OH) ML

Rutgers/S. Fla UNDER???
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Temple -4.5

UCF ML

Iowa +17

Indiana +27

West Virgina +10

S. Carolina +15

Tenn (+)

Michigan/Wincy OVER??

Iowa/Ohio St UNDER??

Kentucky/Vandy UNDER??

Troy/Arkansas OVER??
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Sunday Night Play

ECU (+)
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*Official Plays*

I'm done. The Dog plays have no lines, because I'm waiting for them to move in the Dogs favor. Totals will be posted once the lines are released. Look out for my Underdog ML plays, both of their opponents are primed to be upset.

GL to all this week. I'm open to discussion with all of my plays.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

good job last week. your picks look pretty good with the exception of Stanford. I would just be worried they are in a let down on spot on the road and if USC beats them, perhaps they can feel a bit redeemed (considering Stanford beat Oregon and Oregon beat USC). I will definitely be tailing your totals though haha.

I dropped them for better plays, but they will still cover. Totals look solid this week. Look at our Situational thread as I added some for this week. GL this week.