Louisiana Tech/Nevada FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

riggs · 10-06-09, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Will someone explain why Nevada is a 10.5 point favorite here? What because they killed UNLV? So what? Line started at 7 too...did Dooley get hit by a bus or something?

I think La Tech ML might be a nice value play here C-Bait, whatcha think?

Great job last week, who you like this week?

ronjon619 · 10-06-09, 11:28 PM

Conference game. Nevada had a brutal non conf schedule. LaTech beat up a very bad Hawaii team last week. Game is in Reno and Nevada's offense gets off in this game. IMHO.

stocker08 · 10-06-09, 11:54 PM

I saw this too and thought to myself that nevada isn't that good. They have however played a rough non conference schedule and smoked UNLV last week. Louisiana Tech had a good game against Hawaii last week, but it was closer than the score shows. They are going to have a tough time against a better opponent. Plus Nevada is at home. I am not touching this game.

Ralphie1412 · 10-06-09, 11:59 PM

UNLV beat hawaii luckily by one and then lost to wyoming.

Cougar Bait · 10-07-09, 06:24 AM

Ralphie,

Yes my point is UNLV is not that good...

Riggs,

I'll be posting my plays later tonight.

TPowell · 10-07-09, 08:32 PM

LOVE Tech in this spot, 10.5 sounds great

Cougar Bait · 10-08-09, 04:17 PM

I totally agree TP, let's cash some weeknight games...just like last week

cs11787 · 10-08-09, 04:25 PM

UNLV really isnt that great but that might have just been the game Nevada needed for a little momentum. Kaepernick had a GREAT game against them and when that kid gets rollin he gets rollin. He started off not so hot early in the season. Of course on paper LTech should cover this game easy but Im not so sure. Good luck to those on LTech though.

Joe_Shabadoo · 10-08-09, 04:48 PM

I watched last season's matchup. LA Tech executed well and played with sound technique as UNR was rather inconsistent starting up their running attack; their interior men two-gapped quite a bit and created a new line of scrimmage, while their DEs and safeties were spot-on in the alley, as Kaepernick's speed was largely marginalized.

That being said, I went back to the '07 matchup here in Reno and saw Dooley's squad rather befuddled.

Mind you, I know that the '08 film should be more representative of what to expect tomorrow night, but one should expect UNR's defense to really make Ross Jenkins have to make most of the key plays on Friday, and I don't think that he will come through.

Just my opinion.

I look for a 14-pt. win by UNR, and for the total to go under 58.

Cougar Bait · 10-09-09, 04:29 PM

I can't say I completely agree with your analysis Joe, especially when you consider the differences between this team and the 2007 team. I love trends as much as the next guy, but I rarely wager based on a trend. In fact, it is one of those things that I sometimes wholly disregard. I think it is much less important than matchups, player abilities, look-ahead games, travel, weather, injuries, and on and on...That being said, Nevada is favored here for a reason. I am just not exactly sure what that reason is.

twincities77 · 10-09-09, 04:35 PM

Nevada has the second best YPC (6.9) in the nation, behind Florida. Nevada appears to have a better run defense in a game where both teams figure to try to establish the run first. Basically it looks like Nevada just runs at will with their QB and RB. Nevada's QB also appears to be an efficient short range passer. Nevada's biggest weakness is their passing defense as they've gotten scorched this year, but I'm not sure that LT has the offense (both talent and playcalling wise) to exploit this consistently. Throw in the home field on a weekday night in front of national TV and there's the 10 points. BTW, I don't love Nevada or anything, just answering your question.

paco · 10-09-09, 04:35 PM

This game will be FUN.

jjgold · 10-09-09, 04:37 PM

La Tech looks too easy

Cougar Bait · 10-09-09, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Nevada has the second best YPC (6.9) in the nation, behind Florida. Nevada appears to have a better run defense in a game where both teams figure to try to establish the run first. Basically it looks like Nevada just runs at will with their QB and RB. Nevada's QB also appears to be an efficient short range passer. Nevada's biggest weakness is their passing defense as they've gotten scorched this year, but I'm not sure that LT has the offense (both talent and playcalling wise) to exploit this consistently. Throw in the home field on a weekday night in front of national TV and there's the 10 points. BTW, I don't love Nevada or anything, just answering your question.

Let's keep in mind that 559 of Nevada's rushing yards this season came in one game against UNLV. That probably has a lot to do with their yards per rush. In fact, they only topped 170 rush yards one other time this year, and that was against Missouri.

tin8shusd · 10-09-09, 04:56 PM

Cougar, La Tech is 116th against the run on the road this year. Nevada is first in home rushing in the country. Tread carefully, my friend.

YTD: 20-18 +26.5*

BobHarvey · 10-09-09, 04:57 PM

Nevada 17-3 ATS under Chris Ault at home.

Cougar Bait · 10-09-09, 04:58 PM

tin,

Only have 1 unit on it. It won't break me, but thanks. La Tech has also played Navy and Auburn let's remember, two teams who are very good at running the football. I think Nevada will score, I just have to like Tech's chances to keep it close, or cover.

JamesGenius · 10-09-09, 04:59 PM

LOVE tech here +10.5 +102 is a steal even if tech plays one of their worst games of the year they only lose by 10 honestly this is a no brainer

teaserpleaser · 10-09-09, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

I can't say I completely agree with your analysis Joe, especially when you consider the differences between this team and the 2007 team. I love trends as much as the next guy, but I rarely wager based on a trend. In fact, it is one of those things that I sometimes wholly disregard. I think it is much less important than matchups, player abilities, look-ahead games, travel, weather, injuries, and on and on...That being said, Nevada is favored here for a reason. I am just not exactly sure what that reason is.

its that LT has the 105 ranked run defense in the nation and Nevada looked like the nevada of last year running all up and down the backs of the unlv defense last week, they expect more of the same in this game with the pistol read option. LT defense looked good vs hawaii but the warriors are far from a running team.

twincities77 · 10-09-09, 05:00 PM

Taua ran for 6.3 against ND and 6.8 against CSU before getting hurt (he's reportedly back tonight). Lippincott got 5.8 against CSU and 5.0 against Mizzou. I have no reason to believe that LT is as good at run defense as any of these teams.

cs11787 · 10-09-09, 05:02 PM

Nevada wins by 17+ tonight.

kompulsive · 10-09-09, 05:23 PM

This is getting interesting. I still can't decide which way to pull the trigger or whether it's too hot to handle!

unde0087 · 10-09-09, 05:28 PM

Nevada has covered 16 of the last 19 at home, LT has failed to cover 24 out of the last 29 road games when getting points. LT has an aweful rush defense and they will see a heavy dose of wolfpacks rushing attack. I also think this could be a route like the last time LT came to Nevada.

iwantcougars · 10-09-09, 05:36 PM

the under is the play here

obamaismyuncle · 10-09-09, 05:41 PM

Nevada -10 1/2 and the over

BiffTFinancial · 10-09-09, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by iwantcougars

the under is the play here

bingo.

brock · 10-09-09, 05:54 PM

Nevada -10 1/2 I liked the opening line better. Still OK.

Cougar Bait · 10-09-09, 06:28 PM

I like the back door cover I'll get.

kompulsive · 10-09-09, 06:41 PM

Hmm...I'm liking the under on this one...

Joe_Shabadoo · 10-09-09, 06:47 PM

There aren't that many people on UNR as people would tend to think with Nevada's perception being about as high as it can get this year sans a victory over Boise.

A friend of mine who lets me know of big plays down in Vegas, and my casual knowledge of some whales here in Reno making huge plays have, as some would've guessed, driven this line up to 11.

This type of movement on the weekdays represents significant data pointing towards a UNR cover.

Cougar Bait · 10-09-09, 06:49 PM

Joe's logic here is actually well documented, but I have to stick to my play. GL everyone

SmackdownV · 10-09-09, 06:50 PM

Well I already put 4 units on the over.........and now realize that I am up shit creek.

Over 70% are on the over and the over is coming down.

Thanks Vegas..............Stick it in my ass again.

****ers.

Housemoney · 10-09-09, 06:55 PM

I just put a unit on over 55.5 too. Thinking about LT first half too.

GL Smack

SmackdownV · 10-09-09, 06:58 PM

Actually I have a 4 Unit 2 gamer:

Over 56.5 and Nevada -11

Really did not want to admit taking the Nevada part............I'm so ashamed of this play.

So ashamed.