Toby's System Tracking

[tobycsh39]

The past 4 years I have been betting on College Football I have been gathering information to make a system but never actually sat down and did anything. Well, the past month I have been working on a system for picking College Football winners. The system is based on hard driven Team Performance stats, Turnover margin, MOV, SOS, Home/Away Status, and more without going too in depth into the system. Picks are narrowed down also according to other factors as well.

The purpose of this thread is to track the performance of the system. I am not encouraging anyone to bet or fade any of these plays, they are simply for tracking purposes. I figure if I did all the work to develop the system and update it, I might as well let everyone at SBR share the information. Remember, we are all out to beat the bookies, not each other.

The system has been running for two weeks but I have not been tracking the games on here nor betting the system purely(which has cost me). The system has two types of plays, Level 1(Money) and Level 2(Play). Level 1 have better than a 10% advantage on the current line and Level 2 is anything less. Below are the records for the previous two weeks the system has been running.

Week 4
Level 1(Money): 7-2; 77.8% (Mizzou -7, USF +14, Indy +21, Ohio St -14, UCF +10, Idaho +16, Kentucky +21, Col. St +17, ASU +12.5)
Level 2(Play): 7-3: 70.0% (SC +4, Cincy -17, Miss St +12.5, BC -2, Air Force -17, Bama -18, Pitt +1, Atm -14, Iowa +10, Houston +1.5)

Week 5
Level 1(Money): 6-2; 75% ( USF -7, Marshall +2.5, BC +5, Idaho +3.5, Tulsa -15.5, ATM +1.5, Auburn +2, La Monroe -5)
Level 2(Play): 7-6; 53.8% (Pitt -7, Utah St +25, Vandy +10, Mich PK, No Illinois -7, Iowa St -3, ASU -4, UCF -7, Stanford -6, Cal +5.5, SMU +28, Iowa -20, Wyoming +3)

Early Selection Leans are developed on Monday or Tuesday but system selections are not made final until Fridays (unless weeknight game). I hope everyone enjoys this thread and it keeps spitting out winners.

Good luck to everyone!

[tobycsh39]

Week 6 Early System Leans
Middle Tenn St +5
Missouri +3
BC +13.5
Wake Forest -11
Indiana +7
Pittsburgh -8.5
Temple -14
Wyoming -11
Stanford -1.5
Georgia Tech +3
Wisconsin +14
Ohio -4
Colorado St +7
Toledo -8
South Carolina -10.5
Auburn -3
Navy -13.5
SMU +6
Iowa -8
Idaho +4

Updates will be made throughout the week and final system selections will be made on Friday.

Good luck to everyone.

[HoulihansTX]

MOst of those plays look solid.

Make sure you don't bet Iowa though. They won't ever cover as a favorite, especially more than a TD.

[pags11]

very interesting stuff toby...keep up the good work...

[morri1962]

Which picks would fall under which level ????

[tobycsh39]

Houlihans,

Thanks. Iowa barely fell into an initial lean, it probably wont make it on the final selections come Friday.

Pags,

Thanks bud, good luck to you this week, I see we are on some of the same.

[tobycsh39]

Level 1 (Money) - Leans
Middle Tenn St +7
Wake Forest -11
Indiana +7
Temple -13.5
Wyoming -10
South Carolina -9.5
Auburn -2.5
Idaho +4
Wisconsin +16

Level 2 (Play) - Leans
Missouri +3
Boston College +13.5
Stanford -1.5
Pittsburgh -8.5
Georgia Tech +2.5
Ohio -4
Colorado St +7
Toledo -8
Navy -13.5
SMU +6
Iowa -8
Alabama -6.5

Still Waiting to see lines for Southern Miss/Louisville and OK State/Texas ATM

Good luck

[tobycsh39]

Tuesday Night System Selection
Middle Tenn St +7

[HoulihansTX]

MOst of those plays look solid. Make sure you don't bet Iowa though. They won't ever cover as a favorite, especially more than a TD.

I've changed my mind on this. Iowa all the way.

[tobycsh39]

Thursday Night
Lean Missouri +3 - No Play

[tobycsh39]

Saturday System Selections
Level 1 (Money) - 76.5% YTD
Wake Forest -12.5
Indiana +6.5
Wyoming -10
Temple -14
Auburn -2
Idaho +4.5
Texas ATM +5
Central Mich -23

Level 2 (Play) - 61% YTD
GT +3
Toledo -9
Pitt -7
SMU +6
Iowa -7
Ohio -3.5
Colorado St +7.5
Mich St -4

FYI, I only play Level 1 plays and 1 or 2 Level 2 plays. Good luck this week to everyone.

[dvb02]

good luck....Hope you cash it big!!

[tobycsh39]

Saturday System Selections
Level 1 (Money) - 76.5% YTD
Wake Forest -12.5 - LOSS
Indiana +6.5 - LOSS
Wyoming -10 - WIN
Temple -14 - LOSS
Auburn -2 - LOSS
Idaho +4.5 - WIN
Texas ATM +5 - PUSH
Central Mich -23 - WIN
Middle Tenn +7 ( Thursday) - LOSS

Level 2 (Play) - 61% YTD
GT +3 - WIN
Toledo -9 - LOSS
Pitt -7 - LOSS
SMU +6 - WIN
Iowa -7 - LOSS
Ohio -3.5 - WIN
Colorado St +7.5 - WIN
Mich St -4 - WIN

Week 6
Level 1: 3-5 37.5%
Level 2: 5-3 62.5%

Slow weekend for the system. Wake giving up late td to Maryland hurt. Luckily I hit big on Florida and GT games at night. Anyways, making a few corrections to the system, fine tune how it selects the picks and hopefully we will get back on track next week. Good luck

[tobycsh39]

Leans will be up later today. Some good games I like.

For anyone who can help, my pm's are disabled and have been for quite some time, it would be nice to get them back. Anybody with any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

[tobycsh39]

Forgot to post some of the initial early system leans, obviously this list will be shortened down dramatically by Friday. Good luck this week

System Leans (not categorized yet)
Boise -9
South Florida +3.5
Ohio State -13
Virginia -3.5
Wake Forest +7
Central Mich -6.5
Ohio -13
Alabama -17
UCLA +3
Houston -17
Texas ATM -5.5
Missouri +7
Colorado St +22
New Mexico St +19
Idaho -10
Stanford +5
Indiana +2
UCF +15.5
Fresno -19

Some road chalk in here that scares me a little, lets see what happens come Friday.

[tobycsh39]

Adding Iowa and Navy to leans

[Ralphie1412]

so the only time you actually posted the picks before the week it was mediocre? got it

[tobycsh39]

so the only time you actually posted the picks before the week it was mediocre? got it

Exactly correct! Thats why I am posting it so I can track it on here so C0cks like you dont come around being pricks and commenting in other peoples threads for no reason. You think I just made those picks up out of thin air, only reason I started posting the picks is because they were doing good. I am doing no benefit to myself by posting in here but hoping this system hits above 55% for the year in hopes of cashing big for the future. Thanks for your kind words and far more than intelligent post for the information you have gladly added to the much benefit of the people at SBR. Ya, picks had a lousy week, I am not telling anyone to follow, thats why its called System tracking. I am doing no harm in posting these system picks, they may continue to good or may not, whats it to you if the only week I started posting they went 8-8 for the week. Best of continued good luck to you this year but stay out of my thread if you are going to be an ignorant prick.

[tobycsh39]

Week 7 System Early Leans
Level 1
Ohio -13.5
UCF +16
Pitt -3
New Mexico St +20
Central Mich -6.5
Ohio St -13
Virginia -4.5
USF +3
Missouri +7
North Texas -1

Level 2
Boise -9
Indiana +2
Fresno -19.5
Wake +6
Texas ATM -5.5
Stanford +5
UCLA +3
Bama -17
Navy -7

Games will be narrowed down by Friday. Thanks and good luck to everyone here on beating the house.

[tobycsh39]

Wednesday System Selection
Boise -9.5

Boise is play today under Level 2. Sorry for the late notice

[tobycsh39]

Tough loss, guess thats what happens when laying that many points on the road during week night game. Still thought Boise was the right side, 2 big plays, 2 turnovers, and that field goal from the 1 killed it. Hopefully weekend turns out better. Good luck.

[tobycsh39]

Thursday System Selection
Level 1
USF +3

Rest of the plays will be up late tonight or tomorrow morning. Good luck to every one

[tobycsh39]

Final System Selection Card
Level 1
Ohio -14
UCF +15
Central Mich -6
Ohio St -13
USF +3 (Pending)

Level 2
Pitt -5
Texas ATM -5
Missouri +7
Fresno -19
Stanford +5
UCLA +4
Boise -9 - LOSS
Good luck to everyone this week.