South Florida/Syracuse analysis-GRIZ

**sweetjones55** · 09-29-09, 05:19 PM

"If your leaning and this isn't enough to push then I don't know what is"

How about the fact that the line opened up at USF -7 and with a whopping 84% on USF the line has dropped down to USF -6.5. You can't ignore line movement like that my freind especially when it's going down from a critical number in college football, 7 to 6.5. GL.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 05:50 PM

Little early in the week to be 2nd guessing your play. All I can say is look back to last week in the Mizzou/Nevada game. Same concept.....Everyone was all on Mizzou and the line didn't move. What happened...?

When you suck....you suck.

BTW The line opened between 6 and 9 depending on where you shop. Where did you get the percentage info on betting percentage??? Your book? Some program that is paid to put up BS #'s to confuse people? If you want to get the gauge then get into a book or contact someone who does.

BTW.....I don't mind different viewpoints or comments (Helps us all learn)---GL on your play. -GRIZ

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-29-09, 05:55 PM

I hammered USF when I saw the line open at -7. I am now worried as hell now that the line is -6.5

What the hell does Vegas know that we don't? USF freshman QB on the road? USF's defensive line may be the best in CFB. They have some athletes that beat the hell out of FSU. I really don't see how Cuse can compete here but I'm nervous.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 06:09 PM

I'm confident 4 us MAC!!!!!! Don't stress too hard....Like I said if all someone does is sit around and watch line movements....then they aren't a handicapper. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this up at -9 probably fully expecting it to hit -10 with the push.....

All I can say is I like it....I've researched the stats and I've made a decision that suits me (If I'm wrong then it's on me) but I can say one thing......EVEN SHARPS don't hit 100% and what stat is out there that points to Syracuse---oh, a line movement or history says if a team comes off a big game then bet this way.....IMO your a slave to the system if you do that.....CAP the game and have fun with it....

IMO, we are in on a good play with the information at hand....

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-29-09, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by mtgrizzly

Little early in the week to be 2nd guessing your play. All I can say is look back to last week in the Mizzou/Nevada game. Same concept.....Everyone was all on Mizzou and the line didn't move. What happened...?

When you suck....you suck.

BTW The line opened between 6 and 9 depending on where you shop. Where did you get the percentage info on betting percentage??? Your book? Some program that is paid to put up BS #'s to confuse people? If you want to get the gauge then get into a book or contact someone who does.

BTW.....I don't mind different viewpoints or comments (Helps us all learn)---GL on your play. -GRIZ

Griz... Listen to Sweetjones, this has all the makings of a huge TRAP.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-29-09, 06:15 PM

I'm already in for $1G... I thought about hammering it even more but I'm going to stick and pray.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 06:23 PM

I think your okay on your play....this is a reverse trap and I'm already in on my play so we will have to see how it works itself out. NICE PHOTO IN YOUR PREV POST!!! LOL

**fadethepublic1** · 09-29-09, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by mtgrizzly

Been looking at this hard and I've finally satisfied my curiosity on this one and heres my analysis if someone is leaning on South Florida---If you are Hesistating....DONT! I'm locked at -6.5 (-110) and I think it is still available.....

Some key offensive stats from this year are as follows:

South Florida Syracuse
PPG 37.8 26.3
Rush yds gm 207.3 98.8
Pass yds gm 226 229
Total yds gm 433 328
3rd down % 48.9 % 20%
4th down % 100% 66.7%

Syracuse played MAINE last week and won 41-24.....What you may not know is Maine was up 17-13 after two quarters and put up 340 yards passing against Syracuse. Syracuse was 1 for 8 on 3rd down against Maine and this is the first time they have won back to back games since 2006.

Syracuse lost to Penn State (28-7) and Minnesota (23-20 OT) this year and has beaten NWestern (37-34) and Maine (41-24). Syracuse is 2-2 overall.

South Florida is 4-0 with wins coming against Wofford (40-7), on the road at Western Kentucky (35-13), Charleston Southern (59-0) and on the road at Florida State (17-7).

I won't even get into the defense but lets just say SF dominates and Syracuse (well read above vs. Maine)---

Screw that BS about coming off a big win on this one because that win over Florida State on the road isn't going to mean anything to S. Florida if they turn around and lose on the road to Syracuse....SF up big early and they will keep it that way!

If your leaning and this isn't enough to push then I don't know what is.....GL ALL-----GRIZ

I'm sure you're forgetting a pretty good piece of the pie that you left out regarding this matchup. Ever wonder why USF's stats are sooooo inflated? Let me let you in on a lil secret...

SOS rating
USF = 12.8
CUSE = 29.5

I can guarantee you if Cuse played the same schedule they would fare just as well as USF. Aloha from Hawaii.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-29-09, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by fadethepublic1

I'm sure you're forgetting a pretty good piece of the pie that you left out regarding this matchup. Ever wonder why USF's stats are sooooo inflated? Let me let you in on a lil secret...

SOS rating
USF = 12.8
CUSE = 29.5

I can guarantee you if Cuse played the same schedule they would fare just as well as USF. Aloha from Hawaii.

You've totally lost me here... If I'm reading your post above correctly then USF has played much better opponents

Why would Cuse fare just as well against tougher opponents

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 06:34 PM

Here we go....Let's talk about the SOS real quick.....SYRACUSE has left to play WV, CIN, PITT and LOUISVILLE. SF has left to play WV, CIN, PITT, LOUISVILLE and MIAMI----As far as teams that stand a chance against either....

Mahalo to you as well my pineapple consuming friend! GL-GRIZ

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-29-09, 06:36 PM

Sagarin has USF's SOS at 131 and Syracuse's is 76... That would make more sense but still SOS can sometimes be stupid as teams haven't gotten in the meat of their schedule. Still doesn't mean the team sucks.

All I know is that USF's offense looked explosive versus FSU and the defensive line was BEASTLY. I went with the eye contest on this one and I hope I don't need glasses.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 06:42 PM

Exactly MAC....those sites can put up whatever the hell they want and people think it's the gospel truth. SF has OWNED and I mean OWNED these guys for four years and everything points to a SF WIN and COVER here. Why play it any other way ....Anybody out there have stats that points to Syracuse winning (or this even being close???) then let's hear what you have to say.....

Vegas isn't infallible to errors guys....don't bet your first born male child....but take a look at this for a 3 or 4 unit play- Best of luck either way you go-GRIZ

**stocker08** · 09-29-09, 07:30 PM

They took Minnesota to OT and beat northwestern. Believe it or not, Paulus is getting better as the season progresses. Now, I cannot make a judgement on this game because I simply don't know enough about USF, but I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Syracuse is going to get killed. And with the line moving how it is, it could be quite the trap game.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 07:48 PM

Intelligent counterpoint Stocker.....I just have a hard time giving alot of attention to a lack of line movement....especially when the books don't HAVE to move it if they feel strongly about the line # or play. I know they like to have the line even on both sides...but it absolutely doesn't mean that the line is set in stone.

Stats and how the teams are playing here are what it's about and the bottom line is South Florida has proved it this year against a formidable opponent and Syracuse hasn't.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 10:45 PM

Appreciate it Shab-GL-GRIZ

**sweetjones55** · 09-29-09, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by mtgrizzly

Little early in the week to be 2nd guessing your play. All I can say is look back to last week in the Mizzou/Nevada game. Same concept.....Everyone was all on Mizzou and the line didn't move. What happened...?

When you suck....you suck.

BTW The line opened between 6 and 9 depending on where you shop. Where did you get the percentage info on betting percentage??? Your book? Some program that is paid to put up BS #'s to confuse people? If you want to get the gauge then get into a book or contact someone who does.

BTW.....I don't mind different viewpoints or comments (Helps us all learn)---GL on your play. -GRIZ

Originally posted by sweetjones55

"If your leaning and this isn't enough to push then I don't know what is"

How about the fact that the line opened up at USF -7 and with a whopping 84% on USF the line has dropped down to USF -6.5. You can't ignore line movement like that my freind especially when it's going down from a critical number in college football, 7 to 6.5. GL.

Don't be a jerk, I am just trying to help you out. No one is going to want to comment on you with responses like that. I thought this website was common knowledge to everyone. This site is VERY LEGIT.
www.sportsinsights.com, easiest way to get to the percentages is just go to google.com and type in public bet tracker and it's the first site that pops up.

Covers.com also has almost 70% of bettors on USF and a drop in the line from -7.5 USF to -6.5 USF. There is HEAVY RLM on this game whether you want to believe it or not.
covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?sport=NCF&eventid=26915

**mtgrizzly** · 09-29-09, 11:42 PM

Easy fella---We can't have a debate without getting all fired up about a comment? My issue is with sites that put out BS sporting info to confuse people who are already confused enough about handicapping...I'm not saying your site has bad info, but rather that there are sites like that out there.....Also LM is only relative when you know what is pushing it....lines move just because a book wants to get into alignment with what all the other books have for a line or a line may stay put even though there is heavy action...LM is a little more complicated than most people think but it can also be overanalyzed. No disrespect intended towards you directly. I could have rephrased my answer a little better. (Like I said in my previous post, "It's how we all learn). Peace -GRIZ

**sweetjones55** · 09-29-09, 11:53 PM

What do you think is the reason for the line movement in this game from -7.5 to -6.5 USF? There HAS to be a reason for a drop in 1 point and below that critical number 7 and it ain't the books trying to even out the sides because everone is on USF. If you can't come up with a good answer then you gotta ask yourself if you really have every angle of this game covered and if it is worth a BIG bet.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-30-09, 12:09 AM

Well I can think of a bunch of good reasons why this line would move and one of them includes folks not giving them any respect with a 2nd string QB, on the road, against a school named Syracuse, who just beat their last opponent by 2 TD's + and who just won their first back to back games in 3 years......I don't even want to get into the size of fan base discussion and other factors ....We will see sweetjones- Like I said, Even Linesmakers don't hit 100%---there are lines that are off and in my opinion, I just see this one being out of whack. I could be wrong...have been before...but I'm confident on this one-

**fadethepublic1** · 09-30-09, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by mtgrizzly

Here we go....Let's talk about the SOS real quick.....SYRACUSE has left to play WV, CIN, PITT and LOUISVILLE. SF has left to play WV, CIN, PITT, LOUISVILLE and MIAMI----As far as teams that stand a chance against either....

Mahalo to you as well my pineapple consuming friend! GL-GRIZ

Your point has no validity. What do these teams' future schedule have anything to do with the opponents that they already have played. USF has played a grueling & battled tested schedule against the likes of W. Kentucky, Charleston Southern & Wofford. Do you use formulas or systems when capping a game my friend? cuz my system comes out to Syracuse getting the cover. And I admire the loophole you leave when you say "i could be wrong", just in case it loses. You have your points & i have mine. I would hope you would take all educated info & opinions into consideration before you start judging people. And for the record, I do not eat pineapples. Please do not disrespect my culture & ethnicity again. i did not come on here to disrespect you or your culture. Aloha from Hawaii.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-30-09, 03:16 AM

Sometimes you have to look at RLM with a grain of salt. This could be a case of Cuse being in a much more populated NY area getting a lot of small timers betting on their recent success. You also have alot of basketball people who are now following them because of Paulus as well. Their are a lot of these folks and they are all wanting Cuse to win. USF has a much smaller fanbase and everyone thinks they are down because Groethe is out for the season. Smart money may be with USF but alot more homer money maybe with Cuse.

I'm not going to second guess myself and go with my gut and eye test on this one. USF's defensive line is Beastly and their LB's are great. I think based on that alone will make the difference. Syracuse's defense is trash and this freshman QB will rip it to shreds, even if they put 8 or 9 in the box. I just don't see Cuse covering even at home...

**sweetjones55** · 09-30-09, 08:47 AM

If line movement were everything then we'd all be millionaires. I just think that this line movement should make you think twice before putting a huge bet instead of just a normal size bet.

**stocker08** · 09-30-09, 10:06 AM

Well, considering the way USF played last week, I would expect them to win this game. To do that however, they will need good play out of their db's. Paulus I believe threw for over 400 yards a week or two ago and has a very good reciever in Mike Williams (its mike, right?). Considering they beat flordia state last week pretty convincingly, USF should be able to contain, but a few big plays and this could be a very different game.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-30-09, 11:47 AM

Fade the Public- If you just wanna argue for arguments sake then get married. You say look at the SOS and as soon as I give you the goods to counter your SOS argument, you tell me it makes no difference who they play down the road? How do you think that SOS is formulated?

BTW----I said "I could be wrong".... because there is NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING in this game. If you want the truth about handicapping.....(Anyone can be wrong at anytime).

And finally, you need to be a little less sensitive...you know damn well my comment was a "What's up" and props to Hawaii.....not something disrespectful as you are trying to portray. Knock it off and let's talk football.-GRIZ

**mtgrizzly** · 09-30-09, 11:56 AM

Sweetjones is exactly right and that is the whole point....A Sportsbook knows people watch LM and will counter a line movement or refuse to move a line or will move it in an opposite direction just to counter such tactics.....you really need to know what is making that line move before you push a bet-

**AdaBarber** · 09-30-09, 12:28 PM

I did the math on this and I have S.Florida winning by 19. The line is soft because of the QB situation. We are talking about Syracuse man. I don't care who S. Florida played. They are way faster on offense and defense. Just think of Miami or Fla St. Playing Cuse. There wouldn't even be a discussion. I played S. Florida-7.

**fadethepublic1** · 09-30-09, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by mtgrizzly

Fade the Public- If you just wanna argue for arguments sake then get married. You say look at the SOS and as soon as I give you the goods to counter your SOS argument, you tell me it makes no difference who they play down the road? How do you think that SOS is formulated?

BTW----I said "I could be wrong".... because there is NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING in this game. If you want the truth about handicapping.....(Anyone can be wrong at anytime).

And finally, you need to be a little less sensitive...you know damn well my comment was a "What's up" and props to Hawaii.....not something disrespectful as you are trying to portray. Knock it off and let's talk football.-GRIZ

Who says I'm trying to argue w/you. I'm bringing up valid points & trying to share info or my opinion on games that I am betting on or have a feel for. I've been in this situation one too many times and know how it will go 85% of the time. And like you said, I may lose the Cuse bet or you may lose the USF bet but don't automatically call the USF wager a great one. I'm simply stating that w/the Schedule that USF has played (key word: has) and the teams that Cuse has played, this is why USF's power rating is high, they public perception is high & their stats are high.

I play off of two major things when wagering on a game...
1. Public perception of a team
2. Situation/Trends that a team may fit in.

After that I use alot of filters to make the game an actual wager, such as...
-home team
-dog
-lookahead games
-letdown spot
-my formula/system
-running dog (GoSooners system)

So as you see, I allocate alot of information & resources before just saying I'm gonna bet on Cuse. They fit in at least 3 of the criteria that I look for when betting a game. Cuse is a)home team b)dog c)public eye on USF d)letdown spot for USF. So believe me when I say I am not on here to argue. On the contrary, I am here to lend/share information & knowledge as well as learn from people who know a thing or two about sports wagering. Aloha from Hawaii.

**mtgrizzly** · 09-30-09, 01:14 PM

Each handicapper has his or her own methods that work for them---Would like to hear what other's thoughts are or are most people waiting or staying away from this game----All I can say is, I am on it and will say I would have made the same play even if Syracuse pulls an Appalachian State out of their ass-

**fadethepublic1** · 09-30-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by AdaBarber

I did the math on this and I have S.Florida winning by 19. The line is soft because of the QB situation. We are talking about Syracuse man. I don't care who S. Florida played. They are way faster on offense and defense. Just think of Miami or Fla St. Playing Cuse. There wouldn't even be a discussion. I played S. Florida-7.

Do you honestly think that talent & speed is ALL that determines the outcome of a game? If that was the case then USC wouldn't have lost to UW or Appalachian St wouldn't have beat Michigan, or Boise wouldn't have beat OK in the Fiesta Bowl. There are so many factors when matching up teams. I am not going to lay my hard earned money on whether a team has more talent or speed on one end of the ball. C'mon, there's way more that you need to open up to Barber. Aloha from Hawaii. BTW, my formula has USF winning by 3.

**sweetjones55** · 09-30-09, 09:59 PM

I watched USF's win last week and 14 of their 17 points came off of horribly blown assignements on defense from FSU's secondary, FSU's forte so far this year. They had the one passing TD of 70+yards and then on another drive they gave up another pass of 77yards which lead to a TD shortly after. Give all the credit in the world to USF's defense in that game but I wouldn't praise USF's offense too much. If it weren't for two blown coverages there's a great chance USF doesn't even put a touchdown agasint FSU. USF only put up a total of 3 points in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarter against FSU.

**mtgrizzly** · 10-03-09, 02:31 PM

final: Sf --- 34
syr--- 20