Pags' Plays 10/4

**StogieMan** · 10-01-09, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by blackbeSSt

his picks have already been made in the early pages of this thread. his write up's on said games will come prolly later today or tomorrow.

Thanks, I was reading past week threads and it looked like posts for Sat games came late Thurs/early Fri morning.

**birdman779** · 10-01-09, 09:49 AM

ive gotten ripped early on on pags but i know hes always on his game sooner or later we will turn it around im 1-0 this week after la tech last nite

**Flaghunter** · 10-01-09, 09:56 AM

Pags it is hard to believe the amount of bonehead people who are giving such wonderful support. I read some of them and just laugh. They can't cap on thier own and find someone who gives them something to read and think about and yet they still bitch when they don't hit the games. You my friend are an ICON! I have yet to meet anyone with such a reach from a computer. Everyone forget's that this is freewill. Just awesome information to digest to find games to watch and possibly lay a wager on, yet when THEY lose it is someone's else's FAULT. I'm sure these are the same people who are the first one's to show appreciation when they win also. Pag's just be you and we will enjoy your threads.Peace....

**DunLee** · 10-01-09, 10:02 AM

Thursday NCAA Football

Colorado +17

**Dana4U** · 10-01-09, 11:31 AM

Miami, OH Stat

Pags - I know you don't play MAC games, but I wanted to post a stat from HardCore Sports Radio last night .... if you don't mind. I know some of the people in here have been posting on the Cincinnati vs. Miami, OH game this weekend. The stat given last night was this .... Miami, OH is 103-3 when they are home dogs and the spread is greater than 21 points. Makes you think twice about taking Cinci and laying the 28 or 29 points.

**spongerat** · 10-01-09, 12:08 PM

not really, past trends don't control the future. Different players and different teams entirely

**wal66** · 10-01-09, 12:09 PM

Goodluck on the card this weekend.

You know pags, acknowledging them only encourages them to continue.

**clowncar** · 10-01-09, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

Pags - I know you don't play MAC games, but I wanted to post a stat from HardCore Sports Radio last night .... if you don't mind. I know some of the people in here have been posting on the Cincinnati vs. Miami, OH game this weekend. The stat given last night was this .... Miami, OH is 103-3 when they are home dogs and the spread is greater than 21 points. Makes you think twice about taking Cinci and laying the 28 or 29 points.

Interesting trend for sure.

I would make sure gameday weather was good prior to betting on the bearcats as well.

**wal66** · 10-01-09, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

Pags - I know you don't play MAC games, but I wanted to post a stat from HardCore Sports Radio last night .... if you don't mind. I know some of the people in here have been posting on the Cincinnati vs. Miami, OH game this weekend. The stat given last night was this .... Miami, OH is 103-3 when they are home dogs and the spread is greater than 21 points. Makes you think twice about taking Cinci and laying the 28 or 29 points.

Is that the Sirus radio show? Those guys are more degenerate than the worst on here. I love that show. Bought a new head unit with Sirus built in but for some reason that channel won't come in. Called serious and they say it's not them it's the head unit. I'm like it's a digital unit it's not like the numbers won't appear WTF.

**namathfan** · 10-01-09, 12:30 PM

Something not quite right about that Mia.Oh stat.

I don't think there is any way they have been home dogs of more than 21 points on 106 different occasions.

**Lilffkid** · 10-01-09, 01:28 PM

pags love what I see from you so far...I'm wondering if u have any input on two teams that I love at first glance

Wisconsin+3(currently2.5)
Alabama-15.5

Guys feel free to give any input

**bkny2cnc** · 10-01-09, 02:22 PM

pags11 i wanted to try the virginia tech-17,but noone else seems to think this is a good pick against a not so strong duke team.what would be your advice and always appreciate your threads.gl

**Dana4U** · 10-01-09, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Is that the Sirus radio show? Those guys are more degenerate than the worst on here. I love that show. Bought a new head unit with Sirus built in but for some reason that channel won't come in. Called serious and they say it's not them it's the head unit. I'm like it's a digital unit it's not like the numbers won't appear WTF.

Yes sir! It's the Morency show that's on beginning at 4:00pm (EST). It's channel 98 on Sirius. Morency is very much hard core! Met these guys last year when they were in Vegas. They are even better in person!

**Dana4U** · 10-01-09, 02:47 PM

Spongerat ... you a financial advisor or stock broker? I am reminded of that exact statement every damn time I meet with my financial advisor.

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 03:39 PM

Bread,

I'm thinking it's another winning week...

StogieMan,

yep I'll have the write-ups posted tonight...thanks for stopping by...

blackbeSSt,

wal66,

I respect your opinion but as you know I'm a renegade...

clowncar,

sharp stuff as usual...

Lilffkid,

a lot of people I respect are on Minnesota although I don't have an opinion on the game...no way I would bet against Alabama right now, especially with Kentucky...but that is a lot of points to lay on the road in the SEC...

bkny2cnc,

I would have looked at Duke at +20 or more...no interest in Va. Tech in that one...

**oda11** · 10-01-09, 03:49 PM

Good luck this week pags! I am liking the unit size

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 03:56 PM

oda,

**PortsDave** · 10-01-09, 06:05 PM

Best of luck this week Pags

I have all the plays booked as usual.

**masr** · 10-01-09, 08:20 PM

Good luck this week..

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 08:32 PM

PortsDave,

masr,

thanks brother...

**polson22** · 10-01-09, 08:32 PM

i didn't know morencie and stewart are available in the USA. those guys are completely degenerate, but fun to listen to.

where do they do the show from? montreal??... they sure do alot of NCAAF, which i love.

**puggie** · 10-01-09, 09:58 PM

Ok...not enough crap being talked here...pags..your picks are snail dung...no..in fact they are lower then that. I followed you and went broke...you aren't the jesus everyone around here sez. You owe me money!!! I'm gonna fade you the rest of the year just to prove my point and become wealthy!!!

It's about time for one of those..so I took a preemptive strike!

**Cougar Bait** · 10-01-09, 10:03 PM

You went broke in a month? How pathetic.

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 10:10 PM

puggie,

you amuse me for some reason...

**ToneLoc88** · 10-01-09, 10:30 PM

Pags,

Gonna be tailing all your picks this weekend. After that awful WVU loss, I think I trust you much much more than myself. Hoping for a big weekend but don't let the haters get to you if it's not. Us rational ones know you're due soon.

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 10:33 PM

toneloc,

sorry to hear you were involved in that one...thanks and GL...

**puggie** · 10-01-09, 10:56 PM

Pags,
I aims to please!

Can't wait for Saturday....I would have crapped if I had WVU tonight...but I take your advice and lay off these weekday trauma sessions.

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 10:59 PM

that game was crazy wasn't it puggie? I was glad I wasn't involved...wow...

**DeluxeLiner** · 10-01-09, 11:03 PM

Good luck this week sir. Our card looks very similar.

**pags11** · 10-01-09, 11:09 PM

deluxeliner,

good to hear

**ToneLoc88** · 10-01-09, 11:29 PM

Also had UAB +10 and the under 58 in UAB-So. Miss, but WVU just ruined what could have been a nice thurs night. Either way, I think this is the week your picks are golden. There's been an upward trend each week with your picks and I just have a feeling this is the one where it all comes together. The only pick I'm concerned about is Miami. I really think OU is just fine with Landry Jones at qb and they have a d line that can pressure Jacory like VT did. I definitely see your rationale, just think that may be the one pick I don't go with. Otherwise, card looks great and can't wait for the weekend.

**pags11** · 10-02-09, 12:06 AM

toneloc,

sharp thoughts man...

**pags11** · 10-02-09, 12:58 AM

Vanderbilt +9.5

This is going to be a tough game to watch as Vanderbilt does not play a very pretty style of football. One thing they do well, though, is play defense and they catch Ole Miss, a team they match up well with, off a tough loss that dropped them out of the Top 5. Bobby Johnson is a solid coach and he has had the same coaching staff for the last seven years, which is a sign of a cohesive coaching staff. The Vandy staff will need to have their defense prepared because the Ole Miss offense does have some playmakers, particularly Dexter McCluster. Look for Vandy to put pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead who has been particularly accurate thus far. I’ve also noticed that the Ole Miss offensive line isn’t holding up as well this year which is affecting both their running game and passing game. Vandy will also have to keep an eye on WR Shay Hodge and RB Brandon Bolden. If the Vandy defense can stay disciplined in their assignments I think they have the chance to keep this a low-scoring, grind it out game where the points will be come more valuable in the fourth quarter. Offensively, a lot will rest on Vandy QB Larry Smith. The best way I can describe Smith is that he’s a poor man’s Dennis Dixon. He can make plays with his feet and doesn’t throw the prettiest ball but he does know how to move the chains by getting the ball to his receiving corps who has six pass catchers with over six receptions. The problem is that they only have one TD catch between all of them, which is why the return of RB Jared Hawkins, last year’s leading rusher, is especially important when the team reaches the red zone. Vandy is typically a tough home dog in conference play and while the game may give you an ulcer while watching it I think Vandy can turn this game into a defensive battle and give themselves a shot in the fourth quarter this week.

**pags11** · 10-02-09, 01:14 AM

UCLA +6

I respect what Stanford has done thus far this season but UCLA has quietly built themselves one of the better defensive units in the country and that alone should give them a real shot in this game. If you give me Rick Neuheisel with two weeks to prepare that also perks my interest as he is showing many people why he is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. He will be facing “Captain Comeback” Jim Harbaugh this week in what should be a good match-up of coaches. Much is being made about UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft starting this week and while Craft did struggle last year I was able to watch him play against Kansas State and he looked much improved. Craft won’t be asked to do much as he will be handing off to workhorse RB Johnathon Franklin (4.7 ypc, 2 TD). Expect back-up Derrick Coleman (6.4 ypc, 1 TD) to get his fair share of carries as well. WR’s Taylor Embree and Terrence Austin combine to form an explosive pass catching duo and they should get some one-on-one matchups as the Stanford D will look to stack up against the run. I’ve watched Stanford’s secondary and feel these two guys can bust them for a big play or two, which will go a long way when we have the better defensive football team, catching points to boot. Stanford’s offense revolves around one player, multi-sport athlete RB Toby Gerhart (5.7 ypc, 5 TD). UCLA’s defense is stout against the run and should be able to keep Gerhart from breaking many long runs. QB Andrew Luck has two favorite targets in possession receiver Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu. The UCLA secondary will be challenged, especially by Owusu who has already returned three kickoffs back for a TD, but they are very talented unit. If UCLA can prevent any big kickoff returns and make Stanford earn it down the field they have a shot to win this game. They also have the best kicker in the nation in Kai Forbath and he could make a big difference in this game. Give me Slick Rick, a great D, Forbath and his leg and the points please.

**pags11** · 10-02-09, 01:27 AM

Cal +6

The Cal team that was destroyed last week by Oregon is not the Cal team we will see this week. The thing about college football, as most of you know, is that a team is never as good as they may have played one week and never as bad as they may have played another week. We are going to get Cal’s best effort and part of the reason is that they are playing at home. The difference between Cal’s performances at home compared to that on the road is overwhelmingly eye opening. They will be extremely motivated this week as they will be facing conference rival USC, a team they have struggled with for the better part of the last decade. If there was ever a time for Cal to catch USC it’s now as USC is still breaking in their talented freshman QB Matt Barkley and they unfortunately will be without their red zone RB Stafon Johnson, who was injured in a weight lifting accident earlier this week. While I do see some issues with the Cal linebackers, I think they have a particularly stout defensive line and a very experienced secondary. Cal will have to eye RB Joe McKnight and WR Ronald Johnson, USC’s top two playmakers. If they can limit big plays from these two players they will be able to get their defense off the field vs. a USC offense that is really struggling to convert third downs. Offensively, USC will look to load the line of scrimmage against talented Cal RB Jevod Best. I like that Best has dropped out of the Heisman talk as I think it will motivate him to have a big performance in a national spotlight game. He may have to do some of his damage through catching passes as the USC run D is also very strong. Back-up tailback Shane Vereen, who could start for many other teams in the country, could also play a role in this game. Cal QB Kevin Riley missed a lot of throws last week, but like most of his teammates, he performs a lot better at home. Despite the loss of veteran WR Nate Boateng, Cal has Verran Tucker (22 ypr, 3 TD) still and three other talented guys in Marvin Jones, Jeremy Ross and Anthony Miller. These two teams match-up quite well and anytime I can get a running dog, at home, off a bad loss, vs. a conference rival, I will usually bite.