Early in the season I like to look for mismatches and am not afraid to lay the big lumber with superior teams. Don't think for a second that the coaches aren't aware of how much they're supposed to win by (ie, the Vegas spread.) When they come up short of the predicted margin of victory, they drop down in the computer ratings. Nobody wants to be like Utah last year, when they went undefeated but were unable to factor into any talk about the national championship. You think the Boise States and Brigham Youngs aren't thinking about avoiding a repeat of that scenario when they roll up their scores against cupcake teams? Think again.
That said, I only found a few attractive heavy favorites on this week's card. The rest of the plays are on good teams who are trying to right their ships.
COLORADO -7 against WYOMING
Not sure the Buffalos qualify as a "good team" just yet, but surely they can't be as bad as they've looked the first two weeks. As if losing to Colorado State in the home opener wasn't bad enough, they follow that up by getting donkey punched by Toledo on national TV. Here it is, only mid-September and Colorado and Coach Hawkins are faced with a must-win game. Well, the good news is they're back home facing a Wyoming team still licking its wounds from last week's tussle against Texas. Gotta believe that the Cowboys are gonna be a bit flat to start this game. Colorado finally gets its passing game untracked and wins by over a TD.
AKRON -4 against INDIANA
The Zips are excited about playing in their brand new stadium. Last week they christened it with a 41-0 blanking of Morgan State. Now they have an opportunity to please their fans by taking down a Big-10 team, albeit a lousy one. The Hoosiers are coming off two home victories, but common sense dictates they won't go 3-0. Akron is superior on the ground and through the air and should win by about 10.
NOTRE DAME -10 against MICHIGAN STATE
Coach Weis and the Fighting Irish are eager to get the foul taste of last week's Wolverine defeat out of their mouth. But it's plain to see that Michigan is a vastly improved team this season. They've added a lot of athleticism and speed. That's not the case with the Spartans, who got tripped up at home last week by Central Michigan. This week I look for QB Clausen to have a big game and for Notre Dame to get back in the victory column in a big way.
FLORIDA -29- against TENNESSEE
Everybody knows that new HC Kiffin went out of his way to piss off Coach Meyer and his Gators. No one can quite figure out WHY he did that. Maybe he's just stupid....or a loose-lipped punk. Whatever the case, he's about to eat crow. The Gators would whoop the Vols by over 4 TDs on just a regular Saturday, but throw in the added incentive and they'll probably win by 6. The Vols D is stout, but they won't be able to overcome the bad field position their impotent offense leaves them. Kiffin catches the first of many SEC bitch-slaps.
NEVADA -3 at COLORADO STATE
Colorado State sure looked good on opening week against Colorado, but not so much last week when they struggled to beat Weber State. The whole nation got to see Nevada lay a giant egg two weeks ago when they got goose-egged by Notre Dame. It just wasn't their day. This week they get a mulligan on starting their season over. They had an off week last week to re-tool. I look for their vastly superior rushing attack to be too much for the Rams to handle. Nevada gets on track and wins by over a TD.
BYU -7- against FLORIDA STATE
Who do you figure has got more mojo heading into this game? The Cougars, who stunned the football world by outmuscling Oklahoma, then solidified their new ranking by pasting Tulane....or the Seminoles, who lost the season opener at home to hated rival Miami, then had to fight tooth and nail to avoid an upset by Jacksonville State? Add in the fact that it's the home opener for BYU, where the altitude is over 4000 feet. Traditionally, giving over a TD to the Seminoles is a bit dangerous. But I think this Cougar team is on a mission this year. They're gonna own the air in this game and win by about 2 TDs.
UNLV -7 against HAWAII
Tough scheduling spot for the Warriors. They had to travel from the big island to Washington State last week to tangle with the Cougars. They looked surprisingly good, winning with ease and rolling up over 600 yards of offense. After the game, they opted not to fly home but rather headed on to Las Vegas in preparation for this week's game. Gotta figure that a bunch of kids from Hawaii who find themselves staying in Sin City for a week....it's probably not the best mode of preparation. I know that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, but my money says that the Warriors will wilt under the lure of the neon lights and this UNLV team, who looked pretty good against Oregon State last week, lights it up.
As always, best of luck.
Harry
ncaa last week 5-2 (12-2 for season)
ncaa totals last week 2-2 (6-2 for season)
nfl last week (3-2)
nfl totals last week (3-0)
That said, I only found a few attractive heavy favorites on this week's card. The rest of the plays are on good teams who are trying to right their ships.
COLORADO -7 against WYOMING
Not sure the Buffalos qualify as a "good team" just yet, but surely they can't be as bad as they've looked the first two weeks. As if losing to Colorado State in the home opener wasn't bad enough, they follow that up by getting donkey punched by Toledo on national TV. Here it is, only mid-September and Colorado and Coach Hawkins are faced with a must-win game. Well, the good news is they're back home facing a Wyoming team still licking its wounds from last week's tussle against Texas. Gotta believe that the Cowboys are gonna be a bit flat to start this game. Colorado finally gets its passing game untracked and wins by over a TD.
AKRON -4 against INDIANA
The Zips are excited about playing in their brand new stadium. Last week they christened it with a 41-0 blanking of Morgan State. Now they have an opportunity to please their fans by taking down a Big-10 team, albeit a lousy one. The Hoosiers are coming off two home victories, but common sense dictates they won't go 3-0. Akron is superior on the ground and through the air and should win by about 10.
NOTRE DAME -10 against MICHIGAN STATE
Coach Weis and the Fighting Irish are eager to get the foul taste of last week's Wolverine defeat out of their mouth. But it's plain to see that Michigan is a vastly improved team this season. They've added a lot of athleticism and speed. That's not the case with the Spartans, who got tripped up at home last week by Central Michigan. This week I look for QB Clausen to have a big game and for Notre Dame to get back in the victory column in a big way.
FLORIDA -29- against TENNESSEE
Everybody knows that new HC Kiffin went out of his way to piss off Coach Meyer and his Gators. No one can quite figure out WHY he did that. Maybe he's just stupid....or a loose-lipped punk. Whatever the case, he's about to eat crow. The Gators would whoop the Vols by over 4 TDs on just a regular Saturday, but throw in the added incentive and they'll probably win by 6. The Vols D is stout, but they won't be able to overcome the bad field position their impotent offense leaves them. Kiffin catches the first of many SEC bitch-slaps.
NEVADA -3 at COLORADO STATE
Colorado State sure looked good on opening week against Colorado, but not so much last week when they struggled to beat Weber State. The whole nation got to see Nevada lay a giant egg two weeks ago when they got goose-egged by Notre Dame. It just wasn't their day. This week they get a mulligan on starting their season over. They had an off week last week to re-tool. I look for their vastly superior rushing attack to be too much for the Rams to handle. Nevada gets on track and wins by over a TD.
BYU -7- against FLORIDA STATE
Who do you figure has got more mojo heading into this game? The Cougars, who stunned the football world by outmuscling Oklahoma, then solidified their new ranking by pasting Tulane....or the Seminoles, who lost the season opener at home to hated rival Miami, then had to fight tooth and nail to avoid an upset by Jacksonville State? Add in the fact that it's the home opener for BYU, where the altitude is over 4000 feet. Traditionally, giving over a TD to the Seminoles is a bit dangerous. But I think this Cougar team is on a mission this year. They're gonna own the air in this game and win by about 2 TDs.
UNLV -7 against HAWAII
Tough scheduling spot for the Warriors. They had to travel from the big island to Washington State last week to tangle with the Cougars. They looked surprisingly good, winning with ease and rolling up over 600 yards of offense. After the game, they opted not to fly home but rather headed on to Las Vegas in preparation for this week's game. Gotta figure that a bunch of kids from Hawaii who find themselves staying in Sin City for a week....it's probably not the best mode of preparation. I know that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, but my money says that the Warriors will wilt under the lure of the neon lights and this UNLV team, who looked pretty good against Oregon State last week, lights it up.
As always, best of luck.
Harry
ncaa last week 5-2 (12-2 for season)
ncaa totals last week 2-2 (6-2 for season)
nfl last week (3-2)
nfl totals last week (3-0)
