Wal's College Football Week #3

[wal66]

Thursday September 17, 2009
7:30
Georgia Tech @ Miami

Records:
Georgia Tech 2-0 (0-1 ATS)
Miami 1-0 (1-0 ATS)

Trends:
Under is 15-6 in G-Techs last 21 Thursday games.
Under is 9-3 in Miami’s last 12 Thursday games.
Miami is 13-32-1 ATS in their last 46 homes games.

Head to Head:
Georgia Tech is 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 meetings.

X-Factor:

Georgia Tech comes into this game off 2 wins to start the season. They had a less than impressive walkthrough win over Jacksonville St 37-17 where they racked up 335 yards rushing on 50 attempts. Then last Thursday night they played a dominate first half of football coupled with a couple key big plays and then held on in the second half to get a victory over Clemson 30-27. G-Tech again rushed for over 300 yards because that is what they do and they do it as good as practically anyone in the country.

Miami opened its season on the road against in-state rival and conference foe Florida State. In a very entertaining, very athletic, momentum switching game Miami won 38-34.

Miami comes into the contest against G-Tech with an extra week to prepare. Pretty sure they didn’t just start game planning for Tech’s offense this week past though. Georgia Tech racked up 472 yards rushing on 58 attempts last year so that had to be a lingering thought in the minds of many. You could tell how much improved the run defense was against a decent running team like FSU where the Canes allowed only 109 yards on 30 attempts. Miami does still have issues on defense and they are in the secondary. While very fast and athletic they are still young and find themselves out of position at times.

Georgia Tech is the team many have picked to win the ACC Title this year. There is good reasoning behind this thought process.
A: they have one of the best rushing attacks in the country
B: they have a much improved defense
C: they are in the ACC and with the conference on the decline Georgia Tech appears to be a solid choice.

In my personal opinion Miami is the team to beat this year. I’m not saying Miami is back but I am saying they are on the rise. Proof was on display last Monday night. While FSU is not the same caliber team it was in the 90’s they are a much improved team. Miami showed poise and confidence, much more than one might expect out of such a young team. Miami isn’t all the way back yet but they are very good.
Miami 27 Georgia Tech 17


Play:

Miami -4.5*

[wal66]

September 19, 2009
7:45 PM
Georgia @ Arkansas


Records:
Georgia 1-1 (0-2 ATS)
Arkansas 1-0 (0-0 ATS)

Trends:
Under is 24-9 In Georgia’s last 33 September games.
Over is 7-3 in Arkansas’s last 10 conference games.

Head to Head:
Georgia is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS since 1987.

X-Factor:
We have had an opportunity to see Georgia play its first two games of the season. In watching the game against Oklahoma St in which they lost the excuse could be made that it was a long road trip in a hostile environment with a new quarterback. All true by the way. Last week they got a win at home against a gamey South Carolina team in which South Carolina pretty much won every statistical category with the exception of return yards.

This week the Dawg’s are once again on the road at Arkansas. Arkansas opened its season two weeks ago at home with a walkthrough effort against Missouri State 48-10. The Razorbacks racked up 447 yards passing and 144 yards rushing in that game. Not much can be made of the total yards or final score in that game considering the level of competition and the rotation of players. In fact everything we have to go on with Arkansas is what they did last season. From that we can theorize what they are capable of this season.

I can’t say Arkansas is ready to be a beast in the SEC yet because they aren’t. What they are however is a team on the rise. Bobby Petrino is changing the mindset and attitude of both players and fans alike. They are enthused and capable.

Georgia on the other hand looks like a team still searching. While Cox appears like he will improve through the season as of yet they don’t have the running game to take the pressure off.

I don’t think Arkansas can apply the same defensive pressure that either Oklahoma St or South Carolina could but I do think they will be able to apply enough. They certainly should be able to puts some points on the board. I’m inclined to think this game will put up some quality numbers. Arkansas 34 Georgia 27

Play:

Arkansas -1*

[wal66]

Even though the write-ups provided are the games I am on and the wagers I am placing I still like to hear comments either negative or otherwise. While confident in the plays I post I'm not cocky enough to assume I know all.

Feedback always welcome.

[wal66]

September 19, 2009
7:00 PM
Northwestern @ Syracuse


Records:
Northwestern 2-0 (0-1 ATS)
Syracuse 0-2 (2-0 ATS)

Trends:
Under is 6-2 in Northwestern’s last 8 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-3 in Syracuse’s last 10 games against Big Ten.

Head to Head:
Northwestern won last year 30-10 at home as a 12.5 favorite.

X-Factor:
Both teams have played two games thus far and they have had completely opposite results in those games. Northwestern has had basically two tune-up games. They beat Towson 47-14 in their opener and beat Eastern Michigan last week 27-14. They gave up 320 total yards as a 21 point favorite to the Eagles as a 21 point favorite. On the flipside Syracuse opened at home against Minnesota as a 7 point dog losing 23-10. Then they were on the road last week against Big Ten powerhouse Penn St losing 28-7 as a 28.5 point dog.

While judging last weeks performance against Penn St is hard to evaluate on paper I watched them in the Minnesota game and they were in it and the better team throughout except in the final score.

I think this game comes down to a couple key factors. The first is home field. If the Orange’s come out and make the noise in full support of their team as they did in the opener then it could be very difficult on Northwestern. Secondly if Greg Paulus can manage the game as he did against Minnesota Syracuse has a very real chance of winning this game outright.

I’m not discounting Northwestern in this game but just see Syracuse as the better of the two at this point regardless of what the records indicate. Syracuse 34 Northwestern 27.

Play:

Syracuse +4*

[sean1981]

I don't agree with your last pick. Northwestern should be a 7+ point favorite in this game. BOL, though, man. Well, unless I go with NW

[pags11]

wal,

nice write-up on the Georgia vs. Arkansas game...BOL to you this week bud...

[wal66]

These are leans at this time. Some may become plays before the week is done but for now we’ll wait and see.


Buffalo @ Central Florida

Why this game is on my radar I can’t really explain. When bad teams get together often bad games are the result. I just am not ready to write Buffalo off yet though. I lost with them last week against Pitt and I could not have been any further off in my post of that game. I won’t get much into this game just in case it becomes an official play later.
Buffalo 27 Central Florida 23


Tennessee @ Florida

Much has been made about Lane’s comments upon arriving at Tennessee. Urban has downplayed it in the media, saying how this game is about the players and not coaches. While that is true it didn’t stop the clippings from being posted in the weight room and on the lockers so all could be reminded. Not that any player on the team needed reminding. When a team has held a dominate edge over another team sometimes they become complacent and it becomes easy to take things for granted. I doubt very seriously Florida fell into that category but after the comments there is no doubt they are focused and wanting to send a message home with the Vol’s new coach. That message? Simple…….while Volunteer’s are great when you wanna have a barn raising, when it comes to the Swamp them Vol’s just plain ole’ Gatorbait.
Florida 45 Tennessee 9


UL Lafayette @ LSU

LSU have won both their game thus far but in the eyes of many have been less than impressive in doing so. There is no denying that LSU is a very talented team and the fact they haven’t covered a spread yet is a cause for concern especially when this will be the largest margin to date. Don’t think it’ll matter though.
LSU 49 UL Lafayette 13


Texas Tech @ Texas

I’m sure this will be a heavy action game and I am just as sure it will be heavily favored by the public for Texas. The reasons are simple. First you have a Tech team without the prolific passer Graham Harrell and college stud NFL biatch Micheal Crabtree. Secondly Texas does have for the most part the same team as last year. Lastly it’s because of last year and the upset that has been replayed over and over and over again. So like everyone has said this is revenge time.
Texas 45 Texas Tech 23

[wal66]

I don't agree with your last pick. Northwestern should be a 7+ point favorite in this game. BOL, though, man. Well, unless I go with NW

Northwestern could easily win this game and win it by more than the spread. I am banking alot here on motivation and while that isn't enough to win a game on it's own, sometimes it's enough for that extra umph that's needed.

[wal66]

wal,

nice write-up on the Georgia vs. Arkansas game...BOL to you this week bud...

..............to you as well pags. and coming from the write-up guru your liking one of mine I consider a valued compliment. i just hope my analysis equals the write-up.

[Masterbettor]

I like the Miami, Syracuse picks.

[GatorFan]

Agree with you on the Tennessee @ Florida

[wal66]

Masterbetter.................cool, will admit the Miami game concerns me due to the youth of the team but man oh man do they have potential.

GatorFan...........I don't expect Florida to have the record ATS they did last season, this season but until they don't cover a spread how can one not ride the run. There will be spots to not wager on them and this would have been one of them had Kiffin just came in under the radar. I will say this though. If the Vol's keep this game close it will say alot about Lane's ability to motivate and change the attitude of that team.

[bypp]

Thanks for the great write ups. I like the Miami,
Florida, and Arkansas picks a lot. I'm a little questionable about syracuse...I don't think they'll be able to hang with northwestern. I would like it much more if it were Syracuse +9 or +10. But i have to think northwestern rolls. Either way, best of luck to you this week.

[wal66]

Thanks for the great write ups. I like the Miami,
Florida, and Arkansas picks a lot. I'm a little questionable about syracuse...I don't think they'll be able to hang with northwestern. I would like it much more if it were Syracuse +9 or +10. But i have to think northwestern rolls. Either way, best of luck to you this week.

To be honest this is more of a hunch play. I have seen Syracuse play and while they did perform above expectations in the opener against Minnesota I could be putting too much into that performance. I really have nothing but data to go on with Northwestern and that does concern me some.

Unlike many I just didn't see that many games this week that stood out to me. Some looked too obvious and most looked too iffy. This game is one a few that came out as a spreadsheet play based on data along with my personal hunch. Who know though sometimes the gutt instincts are the best.

[bypp]

#1 rule in my book is to follow your gut. i could see the game going either way and though i like nw better, ill probably just stay away. there arent too many games this week that jumped out at me, but i guess we'll see what happens. best of luck to you

[wal66]

Game #1's a winner.

[wal66]

Syracuse cashes. Not looking good in the Arkansas game though. They look like they have never heard of defense.

[wal66]

Ok I can call it a night. 2-1 on posted plays for the week.