Hey guys, been reading the forums the last couple weeks. Figured it was time to stop reading and start joining in and post my own plays. Anyways, not a great start to the season but not bad either. I am at 12-10 on the season and up 2 units. Although, as far as this board is concerned I am 0-0 since I have not posted my plays. I will always post my plays with a write up explaining why I took the side I did.
Only one play so far. Generally I like to wait towards the end of the week, but if I like a line I will jump on it early.
West Virginia + 7 @ Auburn
Auburn has looked very good on offense. However, in both games Todd has made some horrible decisions throwing into heavy coverage....most notably when he tries to go down field. Neither MSU or La Tech has made him pay for this, which means he will likely continue to make these bad decisions 2-3 times a game until it costs him. Todd has played well but he still can't throw the ball downfield that well. In fact, the only good throw down field I can remember was in the LA Tech game on the long touchdown pass.
I think WVU's 3-3-5 defense will give Todd a lot of problems. They don't run the 3-3-5 like other teams do against the spread. They run it no matter who they play against, which means they will be able to give many more looks out of it. Auburn likes to get McCalebb and Tate on the outside, and WVU's safeties should be able to contain it. I have no doubts that Auburn will get some rushing yards, but I think Todd's lack of consistency downfield will prove to hurt against a solid WVU defense. Todd's option he ran last game won't work against WVU. They won't be dumb enough to play the QB like MSU was.
On defense for Auburn, WVU really poses some problems. La Tech had some success moving the ball against Auburn. MSU really ran the ball well on Auburn, which has to be a big cause of concern when facing WVU and Devine. Auburn hasn't played a team with the speed on offense that WVU has with Devine and Sanders. If they get the holes that Miss St got, they will make them touchdowns unless Auburn really improves their tackling and gap responsibility. They won't run up the middle against Fairley, they will likely attack the Auburn defense much the same way that MSU did and had success with.
The difference is, that unlike MSU, WVU actually has a QB that can throw the ball really well. Brown is dangerous for the Auburn defense, who has had trouble rushing the passer this year. They haven't played anyone who can take advantage of this, but they will this week. Brown also poses the ability to take off downfield if nothing is open, and has enough speed to hurt you with this.
All in all, WVU has faced an East Carolina team that is much better than anyone Auburn has played. At this point, they are more tested. WVU has a better offense at every position than any team Auburn has played so far. They also are better defensively than Mississippi State.
If Auburn wins, I will be very impressed. It is not that I don't think Auburn has played well this season, I do. I just think that WVU is a bad matchup for Auburn at this point in the year. I will probably end up playing the moneyline as well.
The pick : West Virginia + 7 for 2.5 units
Only one play so far. Generally I like to wait towards the end of the week, but if I like a line I will jump on it early.
West Virginia + 7 @ Auburn
Auburn has looked very good on offense. However, in both games Todd has made some horrible decisions throwing into heavy coverage....most notably when he tries to go down field. Neither MSU or La Tech has made him pay for this, which means he will likely continue to make these bad decisions 2-3 times a game until it costs him. Todd has played well but he still can't throw the ball downfield that well. In fact, the only good throw down field I can remember was in the LA Tech game on the long touchdown pass.
I think WVU's 3-3-5 defense will give Todd a lot of problems. They don't run the 3-3-5 like other teams do against the spread. They run it no matter who they play against, which means they will be able to give many more looks out of it. Auburn likes to get McCalebb and Tate on the outside, and WVU's safeties should be able to contain it. I have no doubts that Auburn will get some rushing yards, but I think Todd's lack of consistency downfield will prove to hurt against a solid WVU defense. Todd's option he ran last game won't work against WVU. They won't be dumb enough to play the QB like MSU was.
On defense for Auburn, WVU really poses some problems. La Tech had some success moving the ball against Auburn. MSU really ran the ball well on Auburn, which has to be a big cause of concern when facing WVU and Devine. Auburn hasn't played a team with the speed on offense that WVU has with Devine and Sanders. If they get the holes that Miss St got, they will make them touchdowns unless Auburn really improves their tackling and gap responsibility. They won't run up the middle against Fairley, they will likely attack the Auburn defense much the same way that MSU did and had success with.
The difference is, that unlike MSU, WVU actually has a QB that can throw the ball really well. Brown is dangerous for the Auburn defense, who has had trouble rushing the passer this year. They haven't played anyone who can take advantage of this, but they will this week. Brown also poses the ability to take off downfield if nothing is open, and has enough speed to hurt you with this.
All in all, WVU has faced an East Carolina team that is much better than anyone Auburn has played. At this point, they are more tested. WVU has a better offense at every position than any team Auburn has played so far. They also are better defensively than Mississippi State.
If Auburn wins, I will be very impressed. It is not that I don't think Auburn has played well this season, I do. I just think that WVU is a bad matchup for Auburn at this point in the year. I will probably end up playing the moneyline as well.
The pick : West Virginia + 7 for 2.5 units