Week 11 Games

[Aunty808]

(Posting this thread mainly for Firsty, teecee and morri1962. Thanks for taking interest in my posts. I tried posting this earlier, but the post was too long so I will have to split it up into two parts.)

I didn't want to type up the separate Expert Consensus groups so I just included them here. As you will see, some plays conflict each other. Pass or choose your own poison. I've also included the SRS here too to give you an idea of the strength of each team. Here's a reminder of what SRS is,

Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average, although it should be noted that margin of victory has been assigned a lower bound of 7 points and an upper bound of 24 points. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings.

GL2A

EDIT: I have to correct myself here. All groups, the play is ON the team with the lines (earlier I said FAV).
7-0 FADE 5/0 FADE DOG /PLAY ON FAV
S/U 6-3 (66.66%) - 2-7 (22.2%)


GAME/EXPERT CON/SRS/RESULTS
(SRS RED=Negative (BAD) - GREEN=Positve (GOOD)
BGreen-13' @ CMich (49) 0/5 325/10.96 13-23 LW / 0/5 FADE DOG L
Ala-3 @ LSU (58') 3/2 21.51/16.14
Army-6 @ NTexas 0/5 9.72/0.38 / 0/5 FADE DOG
Purdue @ Ohio St-38 (53') 3/2 6.65/ 23.13
Miss St @ Tenn-24 (61) 2/3 2.73/ 13.84
Fla St @ ND -26 (42') 2/3 3.90/19.08
Nev @ Boise ST-24 (60') 1/4 6.36/15.72
Utah St @ Wash St-20' (70) 2/3 12.78/8.29
Ohio -20 @ Kent St (53) 2/3 0.75/ 16.97 0-40 LL
Minn-6 @ Rutgers (46') 2/3 9.88/ 2.73
WVirg @ Cinn-5 (56') 1/4 3.32/7.99

[Aunty808]

Week 11 Part 2

I tried posting the rest of the plays but got the same message, too large, so will split it again.

I forgot to mention that the S/U and ATS numbers are the results of the only two weeks I started tracking the method (7-0 Analysis).

Another thing I left out is the contest consensus dog picks. It's too much work to keep track of the changes in percentages so I am thinking of just waiting until it settles around two hours prior to the start of the first set of games and post that percentage here.

6-1 PLAY ON 5/0 FADE DOG /PLAY ON FAV
S/U 17-5 (77.27%) - ATS 13-9 (59.09%)


GAME/EXPERT CON/SRS/RESULTS
(SRS RED=Negative (BAD) - GREEN=Positve (GOOD)

Mich @ Indy-14 (48') 2/3 6.41/19.77
Mary @ Ore-25 (57') 4/1 2.71/21.45
Virg @ Pitt-7 (57') 0/5 1.64/11.46
Ark St @ La Laff-16' (60) 5/0 5.95/4.03
Kent-18 @ NMSt (52) 4/1 4.23/ 20.46
Okl St @ TCU-10' (66') 5/0 2.53/1.75
Navy-3 @ So Fla (57') 1/4 5.65/ 0.95
Liberty -10' @ MTST (54) 0/5 7.78/ 17.26
UConn-6' @ UAB (56') 2/3 0.72/ 9.04

[Aunty808]

Week 11 Part 3

Part 4 to follow
EDIT: I have to correct myself here. All groups, the play is ON the team with the lines (earlier I said FAV). Using the example below. App St was the FAV vs Co Car, but the play was on Co Car+2')
5-2 PLAY ON 5/0 FADE DOG /PLAY ON FAV
S/U 22-6 (78.57%) - ATS 18-10 (64.2%)


GAME/EXPERT CON/SRS/RESULTS
(SRS RED=Negative (BAD) - GREEN=Positve (GOOD)

Mia Ohio-12 @ Ball St (48') 2/3 1.31/ 7.53 27-21 WL
Iowa-5' @ UCLA (44') 5/0 13.84/3.42 / 5/0 PLAY ON FAV
Wash @ Penn St-13' (46) 2/2/T1 7.40/ 17.16
Fla Atl @ ECar-8 (58) 0/5 9.15/ 5.18 49-14 WW / 0/5 PLAY ON FAV W
Clem-6' @ VTech (52) 0/5 14.36/ 12.90 / 0/5 FADE DOG
App St @ Co Car+2' (62 3/2 4.18/ 4.67 38-24 WW
Calif -7 @ WF (55) 5/0 5.89/ 0.23 / 5/0 PLAY ON FAV
Geo St @ James Madison-16' (54) 2/3 7.56/ 6.43
Duke+3 @ NCST 2/3 5.20/ 0.88
Syracuse @ BC-2 (53) 3/2 6.63/ 3.59
So Car-3' @ Vandy (55) 4/1 17.10/ 8.81

[Aunty808]

Week 11 Part 4

4-3 PLAY ON 5/0 FADE DOG /PLAY ON FAV
S/U 18-5 (78.26%) - ATS 13-8 (61.9%)


GAME/EXPERT CON/SRS/RESULTS
(SRS RED=Negative (BAD) - GREEN=Positve (GOOD)

Fla @ Texas-21' (47') 5/0 9.18/ 19.52 / 5/0 FADE DOG
No Ill-1' @ WMich 1/4 0.86/ 0.48 42-28 WW
BYU -4 @ Utah (40') 2/3 15.05/ 0.22
Geo @ Miss +2' (55) 0/5 19.47/ 17.59 / 0/5 FADE DOG
Iowa St -2' @ Kansas (50) 2/3 13-71/ 2.82
Col-3' @ TTech (63) 2/3 9.63/ 3.10
Okl -2' @ Mizzo (42') 0/5 6.25/ 7.26 0/5 FADE DOG
Rice @ Memphis-9' (52') 0/5 6.35/ 2.90 / 0/5 PLAY ON FAV
NMex+2' @ SDST (65') 0/5 16.38/ 7,42 / 0/5 PLAY ON FAV
Jax St-10 @ La Tech (55) 2/3 3.60/ 12.34
UCF+3 @ Ariz St (56) 3/2 5.58/ 6.44
Tex St-7 @ UMON (49) 2/3 2.11/ 0.57
SJST @ Oreg St -2' (55') 0/5 5.62/ 0.09 / 0/5 PLAY ON FAV

[Aunty808]

BONUS (NFL) Week 10

Decided to leave the NFL picks here instead of in it's own thread.

System Plays

Play AGAINST any Road Favorite with a 90% or higher pick in the contest.
96% Minn @ Jax
95% Buffalo @ Indy
95% Atlanta @ NO
94% Phil @ Dallas

Play ON any Road Dog with a 9% or less pick in the the contest.
2% Tenn @ LAC
9% Cinn+6 @ Balt 34-35 LW

EDIT:Adding 6% NE @ Chic
================

I lost track of the ATS last week. I'll just give the results of the previous plays.
Week 9
Road FAV
Washington-4 was the only RF with a 97%. They won 27-22 (FADE) LL

Road Dogs
2% Jax+7' at Phil lost S/U but covered. 23-28 LW
4% Mia +6 at Buffalo lost S/U but covered. 27-30 LW
4% Indy+6 at Minn lost both S/U and ATS. 13-21 LL
7% LVR+7' at Cinn lost both S/U and ATS. 24-41 LL
9% TB+9 @ KC lost S/U but covered AS. 24-30 LW

(Using contest closing lines to grade.)

[teecee]

Thank you for the post. Appreciate it.

[Aunty808]

@teecee
You're welcome! It's alot of work, but I don't mind.
Can I ask you a question for feedback? Are the posts too noisy? Too much info? Should I just posts the picks/games without the rest of the numbers?
I tried doing the post this way to give the readers an idea of how good/bad of a team the picks are. Adding the consensus is easier to find the stronger picks. I dunno....
Good luck to you with your choices!

[Aunty808]

Results Week 11

Results Week 11 games


7-0 Group (FADE TEAMS)


The only two MLDog winners were Rutgers+6 and WVirg+5.
CMich+13' , Miss St+24 and Nevada+24 lost S/U but won ATS.
Favorites did well as Alabama-3, Army-6, Ohio St-38, ND-26, Wash St-20' and Ohio-20 all won both S/U and ATS.


There were two teams that had a 5-0 Expert Consensus. CMich and North Texas were teams to FADE.
Fading CMich lost as they won ATS, but fading North Texas won, losing to Army.




6-1 Group (PLAY ON TEAMS)


Teams in this group went 8-1 S/U and 5-3 ATS.
Teams that won and covered were TCU-10', Navy-4, Liberty-11'. UConn-7' and ULL-16'
Indiana-14', Oregon-23' and WKentucky-18 all won S/U but lost ATS.
Pitt-7 was the only loser S/U and ATS in the group.


There were four teams that had a 5-0 Expert Consensus. Pittsburgh was a PLAY ON team that lost S/U and ATS.
The other three teams were teams to FADE. Ark St+14, Okl St+10' and MTST+11' all lost both S/U and ATS.


5-2 Group (PLAY ON TEAMS)


Best group this week with lots of winners.
Penn St-12', ECar-7', Clemson-6, California-7, J Madison-14', Duke+3, BC-3, UTEP-5 and So Carolina-3' all won S/U and ATS.
Miami Oh-12 won S/U but lost ATS.
Iowa-5' and App St-1' lost both S/U and ATS. (Mia Fl-11 also belonged in this group but I missed listing them. They lost S/U and ATS.)


There were six teams that had a 5-0 Expert Consensus. Fading VTech+6 won you some money, they lost S/U and ATS.
Iowa-5' was the only loser in the PLAY ON teams, losing S/U and ATS to UCLA. ECar-7', California-7 and UTEP-5 won both S/U and ATS.


4-3 Group (PLAY ON TEAMS)


Teams that won both S/U and ATS were Miss+2', Texas-22, No Illinois-1', Colorado-3', New Mexico+1' and Texas St-7.
Byu-4, Memphis-9' and Jax St-10 all won S/U but lost ATS.
Teams that lost both S/U and ATS were Oklahoma-2', UCF+3, Oregon St-2' and Iowa St-2.


There were six teams that had a 5-0 Expert Consensus.
Only fading Florida won as they lost to Texas S/U and ATS. Fading Miss+2' and Missouri+2' both lost.
The PLAY ON teams that lost both S/U and ATS were SDST-1' and Oregon St-2'. Memphis-9' won S/U but lost ATS.
===========


I didn't get back to posting the Contest Dog Consensus picks. It's too much of a hassle to track. What I will do instead is to list any consensus that is in the 80%-100% pick range.


This past week I noted some of the games with those percentages. These are the results if you FADED them.
84% Navy beat So Fla 28-7 LL
88% Army/NTexas OVER 66 14-3 W
91% Mich/Ind OVER 47' 15-20 W
82% Cinn-4' lost to WVirginia 24-31 WW


On to Week 12......