As for you starting shit-- Do you know/remember how many insane DMs you sent me?
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Comment -
I AM SO TIRED OF YOUR PRIVILEGED ASS...
I am going old school on you...
Let's Rumble
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
I created our thread on Players Talk
A Quant vs. USMA 1992
Dave
Mack the TeachLast edited by usma1992; 08-28-24, 07:39 PM.Comment -
And Sparky-- you never clarified.
Are we allowed to bet dogs on the ML, and what determines the winner? Net units? Are we using 110 lines?
I am letting you set those rules, because it won't matter in the least to me.Comment -
5-5 Yesterday... not bad... didn't bet anything... Not until Week 4. 4-1 on Unders... Might evaluate the past few years and see if that holds true for the first few weeks.
Some of scores were really close... some were way off.
Dave
Mack the TeachLast edited by usma1992; 09-01-24, 07:35 AM.Comment -
As far as I know this year... there are 134 FBS teams... Only 133 have played a game so far... anyone know which team has not played. It will save me a tremendous amount of work.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Never mind Ball State...
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Against my better judgement ... I have decided to post Week 2 picks using my statistical model. I will be crucified, I'm sure. These picks are statically based on just a single game. These picks are going to look awful when you look at them. However, I believe that as data filters in that my numbers will normalize to something rational. I am predicting that to be week 4. I might be week 5 or later... but I am taking a swing at Week 4 in college. In the NFL, it is a different story because of parity. I actually believe Week 3 might be my beginning there. Again, laugh away... this is what the math states with just one game in my model. If you want to know my process... you will see it develop over time.
David
Mack the TeachComment -
Time NCAAF 2024Week2 O/U& SPREADS BETS NOT UNTIL WEEK 4 AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM BYU 6 SMU 35 41 -10.5 56.5 9:00 PM Duke 28 Northwestern 1 29 -2.5 36.5 Away Plus 5* 12:00 PM Georgia Tech 23 Syracuse 27 50 3 62.5 Home Plus 5* Under 5* 12:00 PM Kansas State 5 Tulane 32 37 10 49 12:00 PM Bowling Green 6 Penn State 26 32 -34.5 48.5 12:00 PM Troy 6 Memphis 27 33 -18.5 57.5 Under 5* 12:00 PM Pittsburgh 55 Cincinnati 0 55 -2 63 Away Plus 5* 12:00 PM Akron 0 Rutgers 44 44 -23 38.5 12:00 PM Army 40 Florida Atlantic 0 40 -4 42.5 12:00 PM Texas 33 Michigan 3 36 7.5 43 12:00 PM Arkansas 40 Oklahoma State 20 60 -8 62.5 Away Plus 5* 3:30 PM California 11 Auburn 21 32 -13 53.5 Under 3* 3:30 PM Jacksonville State 0 Louisville 33 33 -28 58 3:30 PM Temple 0 Navy 44 44 -12 43 3:30 PM Baylor 19 Utah 45 64 -14.5 54.5 3:30 PM South Carolina 15 Kentucky 7 22 -10 42 Under 5* 3:30 PM Charlotte 20 North Carolina 23 43 -22.5 46.5 Comment -
3:30 PM Northern Illinois 25 Notre Dame 23 48 -28 45 3:30 PM Eastern Michigan 0 Washington 48 48 -24.5 47.5 3:30 PM Massachusetts 6 Toledo 40 46 -20 50.5 3:30 PM Iowa State 7 Iowa 23 30 -2.5 35 3:30 PM Michigan State 4 Maryland 39 43 -8.5 44 4:00 PM UTSA 25 Texas State 32 57 0 65 Under 3* 4:15 PM Middle Tennessee 0 Mississippi 56 56 -41.5 63.5 4:30 PM Marshall 34 Virginia Tech 17 51 -20.5 52 6:00 PM Central Michigan 27 Florida Internatio 15 42 6.5 51 Under 3* 6:00 PM East Carolina 17 Old Dominion 17 34 2.5 54 6:00 PM South Alabama 52 Ohio 34 86 2 55.5 Away Minus 5* Over 5* 6:30 PM Sam Houston State 10 UCF 27 37 -22.5 57.5 7:00 PM South Florida 8 Alabama 26 34 -31 63.5 Under 5* 7:00 PM Buffalo 14 Missouri 42 56 -34.5 50.5 7:00 PM Virginia 21 Wake Forest 28 49 -2 56.5 7:00 PM Kansas 9 Illinois 9 18 5.5 56 7:00 PM Georgia Southern 21 Nevada 29 50 1 57.5 Home Plus 5* 7:00 PM San Jose State 14 Air Force 27 41 -6.5 45.5 Home Minus 5* 7:00 PM UAB 35 Louisiana-Monroe 22 57 13 53.5 7:00 PM Tulsa 41 Arkansas State 37 78 -7 65.5 Comment -
7:00 PM Louisiana-Lafayett 38 Kennesaw State 0 38 15 47.5 7:30 PM Western Michigan 0 Ohio State 42 42 -38 54.5 7:30 PM Colorado 0 Nebraska 57 57 -7 59 7:30 PM Tennessee 51 North Carolina Sta 24 75 7.5 60.5 Away Minus 5* 7:45 PM Houston 16 Oklahoma 22 38 -29.5 49 8:00 PM Appalachian State 28 Clemson 33 61 -17.5 53 10:00 PM Boise State 22 Oregon 35 57 -19.5 61 10:00 PM Texas Tech 46 Washington State 36 82 -2.5 65.5 Away Plus 5* 10:15 PM Liberty 42 New Mexico State 12 54 22.5 56 10:30 PM Oregon State 26 San Diego State 30 56 6 55 10:30 PM Mississippi State 8 Arizona State 27 35 -6.5 60 11:00 PM Utah State 30 USC 25 55 -28 63 Away Plus 5* Comment -
I don't stand by these picks. I decided to post just so you can see my model evolve over the weeks. Week 2 and Week 3 are the most dangerous in my model because the sample size is essentially NIL. I am not suggesting you bet these game in any manner. I am just showing you the process.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Wait a minute: Army 40-0? Any homer-bias built into that model?
PS: have you seen this QB Daily? I'm liking this Black Knight team. They're back to playing physical, started with the game @ Air Force last year.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Give me the army ML boomComment -
Chucky,
No Home Team Bias... I don't think LOL. But you never know what the subconscious works. Look at my skewed numbers week two. Chucky, FWI... I messaged you a question... if you get a chance let me know your thoughts. Regardless, I have Northern Illinois beating Notre Dame outright lol. If it happens I will throw up. Army looks tough. I will probably go to the Army Navy game again this year.
It is in DC for the first time ever. Look forward to this week.
Starting week 4 I will be betting my system.
Food for thought... based on my past experience. A team like Florida State that is already 0-2 and was ranked top 15 will find its gear. You are going to get a very reasonable spread on a blow out coming up. Happens every year. I would consider FSU-SMU Sept 28 or the Duke game after that.
Army is tough this year, Good Luck Astrobloke... I believe my Alma Mater has you covered this week.
I am really curious how the system does today with only one weeks worth of data. I have so many other filters which include matchups that eliminates games beyond the points projected. If the system wins this week with extremely skewed data... who knows. I was 5-5 last week but I lost 4-5 Star bets and only won 3-5 Star bets.
Trying desperately to not add any human eliminate to the picks after the algorithms are set.
Week 2... I am 1-0 with Duke win. I do not count OT. I had Duke +2.5 and since they tied in regulation, my system won the game. Duke won in OT anyway, but that is not the point. If Northwestern had won in OT, I still would have counted the game as a win.
Dave
Mack the TeachLast edited by usma1992; 09-07-24, 06:52 AM.Comment -
Hey, your Army projection wasn't far off! I mentioned that I believed in them.
This Army offense is not messing around. They're back to bludgeoning opponents.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
This team is great... but I was there when we played Alabama and Auburn in a bowl game.
No jokeComment -
I don't know what to think... I don't starting betting until week 4... but I am currently 6-0 right now on this weeks games. Week 2 and Week 3 are may danger zones. Yet ... right now I am 6-0.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
That's unbelievable. Fantastic info. Thank you.Comment -
I can't believe that I predicted the Northern Illinois upset. Insane.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Looks like 11-7 yesterday.... and I predicted that Northern Illinois would beat Notre Dame by 2. Check the score... they beat them by 2. This is going to be one crazy year...
My alma mater crushed it.... Go Army.... CHUCKY... I guess I am your hero, LOL.
Dave
Mack the TeachLast edited by usma1992; 09-08-24, 03:34 AM.Comment -
Wow that was fun
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That was pretty fun... I will be bragging about the NIU game for a while... but what the hell. Who else called that and talked about it before the game? NIU had no shot ... my system said they win by 2... they won by 2. Probably top 100 upsets ever in college football.
Dave
Mack the TeachLast edited by usma1992; 09-08-24, 08:13 AM.Comment -
Stats are starting to normalize. I still beating my chest on the math behind picking the NIU game to the exact margin of victory... I'll let it go soon. However, that was one of the biggest upsets in college football history and I called it dead on.
Here are Week 3 picks...
DaveTime NCAAF 2024Week3 O/U& SPREADS NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4 AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:30 PM Arizona State 27 Texas State 23 50 1.5 58 Under 3* 7:00 PM UNLV 28 Kansas 15 43 -7 56.5 8:00 PM Arizona 19 Kansas State 21 40 -7 58 12:00 PM Oklahoma State 47 Tulsa 0 47 20 62.5 12:00 PM North Texas 16 Texas Tech 23 39 -9.5 68.5 Under 5* 12:00 PM Alabama 39 Wisconsin 4 43 16 51 12:00 PM Central Michigan 15 Illinois 29 44 -20 51 12:00 PM Memphis 27 Florida State 15 42 -6.5 52 Under 5* 12:00 PM Cincinnati 25 Miami (Ohio) 42 67 2.5 45 Home Plus 5* Over 5* 12:00 PM Louisiana Tech 28 North Carolina Sta 21 49 -21.5 51 12:00 PM LSU 32 South Carolina 17 49 7 50.5 12:00 PM Arkansas State 25 Michigan 21 46 -22 45.5 12:45 PM Boston College 36 Missouri 10 46 -16.5 54 1:00 PM Massachusetts 35 Buffalo 13 48 -4.5 45 2:00 PM Coastal Carolina 42 Temple 29 71 17.5 51.5 3:30 PM Texas A&M 45 Florida 6 51 4.5 46.5 3:30 PM Washington State 35 Washington 25 60 -4.5 56.5
Mack the TeachComment -
Dave3:30 PM Oregon 38 Oregon State 25 63 16 50 3:30 PM West Virginia 17 Pittsburgh 25 42 2 60.5 3:30 PM Ball State 19 Miami (Florida) 34 53 -36.5 54.5 3:30 PM Tulane 19 Oklahoma 27 46 -14 50 3:30 PM Nevada 38 Minnesota 19 57 -16.5 43.5 3:30 PM Notre Dame 31 Purdue 11 42 10.5 46 Away Minus 3* 4:00 PM Appalachian State 17 East Carolina 50 67 2.5 58.5 Home Plus 5* 4:00 PM Troy 28 Iowa 47 75 -22.5 39 Over 5* 4:15 PM UAB 12 Arkansas 46 58 -24 60 4:30 PM Utah 29 Utah State 18 47 21.5 46.5 6:00 PM Virginia Tech 26 Old Dominion 7 33 14 50 6:00 PM UTEP 5 Liberty 0 5 -23 57.5 6:00 PM Connecticut 11 Duke 37 48 -17 47.5 6:00 PM Florida Internatio 8 Florida Atlantic 13 21 -4.5 43 Under 5* 6:30 PM Mississippi 28 Wake Forest 10 38 24 63.5 7:00 PM Western Kentucky 22 Middle Tennessee 25 47 7 54 7:00 PM Jacksonville State 15 Eastern Michigan 30 45 -2.5 49.5 7:00 PM Vanderbilt 18 Georgia State 27 45 11 46 7:00 PM UTSA 17 Texas 29 46 -34.5 53.5 Under 3* 7:00 PM Hawai'i 11 Sam Houston State 25 36 -5.5 49.5 Under 5*
Mack the TeachComment -
Dave7:00 PM South Florida 27 Southern Mississip 28 55 11 58.5 Home Plus 5* 7:30 PM Toledo 25 Mississippi State 44 69 -11 59.5 Over 5* 7:30 PM New Mexico 16 Auburn 17 33 -28 61 Under 5* 7:30 PM Air Force 17 Baylor 15 32 -16.5 41.5 Under 5* 7:30 PM UCF 30 TCU 24 54 -1.5 61 Away Plus 5* 7:30 PM Georgia 49 Kentucky 0 49 24 45 7:30 PM Colorado 28 Colorado State 15 43 7.5 58.5 7:30 PM Indiana 27 UCLA 15 42 2.5 47 Away Minus 3* 7:45 PM Kent State 0 Tennessee 56 56 -49.5 62.5 8:00 PM Rice 34 Houston 13 47 -4.5 44.5 8:00 PM Maryland 31 Virginia 21 52 2.5 55 9:00 PM BYU 46 Wyoming 0 46 11 39 10:30 PM New Mexico State 20 Fresno State 31 51 -20 48 10:30 PM San Diego State 19 California 18 37 -19 51 10:30 PM Kennesaw State 20 San Jose State 18 38 -18.5 43.5
Mack the TeachComment -
Week 2 and Week 3 are the most dangerous. So be very careful.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
You did not go 11-7.
You went 10-7-1. This is why I bust on you. Oklahoma State-Arkansas was a push. You cant claim wins you did not have.
Now-- outside of that-- Nice win on NIU.
Although-- I am curious-- You had Utah State beating USC (USC won 48-0) and you had Pitt beating Cincinnati 55-0. So there's that.Comment -
Your coloring of the tables is better. You have to align the header with the data. The total header is one off of the actual total number.
Also, are you really ok with saying a spread is off 32 points?
I'm not going to belabor the point if this is something you won't accept. But supposedly you're a math guy. If spreads are this wrong, then closing line value is meaningless. If you test this, it's actually is high predictive.
In the game between BC and Missouri, you have them as 26 point favorites, while everyone else has them as 16 point dogs. On the moneyline, that's got to be close to a 550% return. Logically, you are finding several of these a week. Do you really think that everyone else in the world cannot find these dramatically mispriced games, and if games were that far off, that sportsbook would offer them.
You may have something with your model, I know not. But there comes a point where you have to ask yourself if it makes sense.Last edited by Waterstpub87; 09-11-24, 02:56 PM.Comment -
usma-- ball busting set aside for a second.
A genuine question.
How do you determine your plays?
For example--- You have Memphis beating FSU on the road by 12, and FSU is nearly a TD favorite at home.
That is a deviation of more than 18 points from Vegas, yet you don't play it.
At the same time, you predict UCF to beat TCU by 6, and the current line is just TCU -1.5, that would represent a deviation of just 7.5 points, and THAT IS a 5 star play.
Why do you play the game with the smaller deviation from your predicted outcome?Comment
