My numbers... might be closer than Vegas numbers...

[usma1992]

I need reasonable feedback... all my picks are posted. But if you assume that 3 points or so declares you better than Vegas... Here are my first 7 picks. You may not agree with me... but I am a math guy.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	NEWMEXICOST	20	LOUISIANATEC	25		45	-3	52		2Close	Under
7:30 PM	LIBERTY	35	WKENTUCKY	23		58	4	60		Away -	2Close
7:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	35	FLAINTERNATI	11		46	7.5	44.5		Away -	2Close
8:00 PM	UTEP	20	SAMHOUSTONST	20		40	-3.5	36		2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	SYRACUSE	23	VIRGINIATECH	24		47	-3	47		2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	GEORGIAST	26	GASOUTHERN	40		66	-2.5	62		2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	FLAATLANTIC	27	CHARLOTTE	14		41	5	41		Away -	2Close

Game 1 If New Mexico St. doesn't score at TD... my numbers are dead on. Even though they scored 51 and I bet the under... I give Vegas the nod. They were closer than my 45. 0-1. Vegas lead.

Game 2 Spread wise... I crushed Vegas and the O/U was 58 vs. 60 to close to call 1-1. They hit over.

Game 3 Spread wise... I crushed Vegas and the O/U was 46 vs. 44.5 to close to call 2-1. They hit over.

Game 4 Spread wise... both dead on... very close game... I give my system a win on the over since it was beyond 3 points to Vegas. 3-1.

Game 5 Push both ways based on predictions and spreads.

Game 6: I give myself two wins here because my over projection was over 3 points and my spread completely dominated Vegas. 5-1

Game 7 Over/Under a wash... produced the same number... Spread was dominated by my prediction. 6-1 so far this weekend.

Solid week to start... I'm producing numbers ahead of time... and posting them... so no one can argue with the logic.... Good Luck today

Dave

[A Quant]

You are a living legend.

Even though you are hitting at 38%.

My god, they are going to build statues of you.

The odd part to me is---- you posted your picks earlier in the week, and did not include any games before FAU.

Yesterday, suddenly you "picked" all these winners-- 2 fukking days AFTER they were played.

[A Quant]

Solid 14-13 week there, Dave.

Almost-- ALMOST--- hit the 52.4% you need to be profitable.

Someday. Maybe try and post your entire card AFTER all the games are played? Just a thought.

[usma1992]

A Quant... the only thing I am doing is tweaking the filters... I am not changing any projected number. Not one. I am merely trying to understand how to view my projections in a better way.

Hate all you want. I find it funny.

My numbers are coming in closer than Vegas. Once, I understand how to interpret the data. Off to the races...

Dave

[A Quant]

A Quant... the only thing I am doing is tweaking the filters... I am not changing any projected number. Not one. I am merely trying to understand how to view my projections in a better way.

Hate all you want. I find it funny.

My numbers are coming in closer than Vegas. Once, I understand how to interpret the data. Off to the races...

Dave

But Dave, you don't even SEE your own numbers.

You made a post about learning to focus on totals starting in week 7, not before.

Do you realize, your TOTALS were 5 games better (14-14) the first two weeks you started posting here than the last 2 weeks with your NEW filters (9-15)?

[A Quant]

And for the record, I am NOT hating on you.

Do me one favor, please.

Do not post a selection after the results of the game. On gambling boards, that is a big no-no. Simply void it off your spreadsheet.

And maybe just post one page of selections---- each week you post picks, then Friday rolls around, and its new picks. Why not just wait until you are done tinkering?

[usma1992]

And you have produced what? LOL

Teddy Roosevelt
MAN IN THE ARENA

[A Quant]

And you have produced what? LOL

Teddy Roosevelt
MAN IN THE ARENA

I have a thread here.

and the last 3 weeks, I am 9-5 in THAT thread.

How you doin? I'm going to guess, not as good?

Mr. 38%, sorry. Now its what, Mr. 42%?

[usma1992]

Do me one favor... produce something... then critique...

Otherwise... go pound sand...

What value do you add... I find it comical.... that you critique and add no value but critiquing.

MAN IN THE ARENA

Dave

[A Quant]

Do me one favor... produce something... then critique...

Otherwise... go pound sand...

What value do you add... I find it comical.... that you critique and add no value but critiquing.

Dave

Okay. I'll go slower.

I have a thread here. I PRODUCED 3 consecutive winning weeks.

You are the ONLY poster here who has yet to produce ONE winning week.

Not one.

Time for a new filter---

[usma1992]

Congratulations... LOL

[usma1992]

So I guess... I am due... LOL

[Mike Huntertz]

So I guess... I am due... LOL

So is my library book.
Keep playing and once you have a winning week pop off, if you like?
No ego makes more friends, try it out.

[A Quant]

So is my library book.
Keep playing and once you have a winning week pop off, if you like?
No ego makes more friends, try it out.

My point, said better than I could. Creating a thread highlighting 2 games when you are hitting at less than 40% seems a bit odd.