Week 8 Games... Really excited about the upgrades I have made...

usma1992 · 10-20-23, 06:52 PM

CHARLOTTE	14	ECAROLINA	26	40	-7	41.5	2Close	2Close
LAMONROE	10	GASOUTHERN	55	65	-16.5	58.5	2Close	2Close
AKRON	12	BOWLINGGREEN	15	27	-7.5	40	2Close	Under
PITTSBURGH	13	WAKEFOREST	25	38	-2	48	2Close	2Close
SFLORIDA	43	CONNECTICUT	25	68	2.5	53.5	Away -	2Close
OKLAHOMAST	29	WVIRGINIA	28	57	-3	50.5	2Close	2Close
CMICHIGAN	26	BALLST	15	41	4.5	43	2Close	2Close
BUFFALO	35	KENTST	13	48	6.5	46	Away -	2Close
WISCONSIN	34	ILLINOIS	16	50	2.5	42	2Close	2Close
EMICHIGAN	5	NILLINOIS	25	30	-13	43.5	2Close	Under
MINNESOTA	10	IOWA	12	22	-5.5	33	2Close	Under
WASHINGTONST	18	OREGON	58	76	-19.5	60.5	Home -	Over
TENNESSEE	23	ALABAMA	16	39	-8.5	48	Away +	Under
NORTHWESTERN	12	NEBRASKA	22	34	-12.5	42.5	2Close	Under
SCAROLINA	22	MISSOURI	37	59	-7.5	60	2Close	2Close
NORTHTEXAS	25	TULANE	39	64	-20.5	61	2Close	2Close
TOLEDO	31	MIAMIOHIO	14	45	2	49	Away -	2Close
TEXAS	49	HOUSTON	13	62	22.5	60	2Close	2Close
UTSA	32	FLAATLANTIC	29	61	3.5	59	2Close	2Close
HAWAII	32	NEWMEXICO	27	59	-2	59	2Close	2Close

usma1992 · 10-20-23, 06:53 PM

VIRGINIA	12	NCAROLINA	55	67	-23.5	56	Home -	2Close
APPALACHIANS	47	OLDDOMINION	16	63	6.5	54	Away -	2Close
TEXASTECH	39	BYU	18	57	4.5	52.5	2Close	2Close
COLORADOST	39	UNLV	45	84	-7	61.5	2Close	2Close
UTAHST	36	SANJOSEST	31	67	-5.5	66	2Close	2Close
COASTALCAROL	43	ARKANSASST	14	57	10	60.5	Away -	2Close
TCU	39	KANSASST	36	75	-7	57	2Close	2Close
OLEMISS	37	AUBURN	18	55	7	57	Away -	2Close
MICHIGAN	31	MICHIGANST	2	33	24.5	47.5	2Close	2Close
DUKE	13	FLORIDAST	29	42	-13.5	49	2Close	Under
ARMY	23	LSU	53	76	-30.5	57.5	2Close	2Close
CLEMSON	33	MIAMI	25	58	2.5	50.5	2Close	Over
UTAH	16	USC	28	44	-7	56	2Close	Under
GEORGIAST	27	LALAFAYETTE	32	59	-3	60.5	2Close	2Close
NEVADA	23	SANDIEGOST	37	60	-13.5	49	2Close	2Close
UCLA	47	STANFORD	10	57	16.5	54.5	Away -	2Close
ARIZONAST	13	WASHINGTON	45	58	-28.5	58	2Close	2Close

Rrwolverine · 10-20-23, 07:39 PM

Thanks for sharing all this

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-20-23, 08:07 PM

Good Luck on the plays. Will keep watching. My two cents:

1) A lot more to handicapping than meets the eye.
2) It's a very challenging task.

GL.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-21-23, 07:22 PM

US, you called the exact score in the MN/IA. Flipped Fav. Very precise call, tho, 12-10.

usma1992 · 10-22-23, 11:59 AM

Appreciate it... but I need to win consistently. Happy with spread bets but over/unders hurt this week. I'm close.

Went 13-14... 9-6 spread ... 4-8 o/u. I value spread wins more.

Dave

A Quant · 10-24-23, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Appreciate it... but I need to win consistently. Happy with spread bets but over/unders hurt this week. I'm close.

Went 13-14... 9-6 spread ... 4-8 o/u. I value spread wins more.

Dave

Actually No. You did not go 9-6 in sides

You went 8-7-2.

And you did NOT go 4-8 in Totals, you went 5-7.

So, you did go 13-14-2, but different than what your posted on sides.

Your losses from your spreadsheet you posted above...

Penn State +4
Cincinnati -2.5
Air Force -11.5
Oregon -19.5
Tennessee +8.5
North Carolina -23.5
Appalachian State -6.5

That is 7.

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 11:43 AM

I made minor adjustments... before kick off that changed minor details. But yes approximately 13-14. I am not happy with those results and will try again this week. I have no problem you keeping me honestly. I got the Air Force game as a push since I go the line at -11 but the rest is right. Disappointed in Tennessee.

This week was better but not what I had hoped. Felt like the Over/Unders were very unfair. I am not changing any of the projected point totals. I am merely trying to figure out how to read them with respect to betting.

I have spent significant time looking at games and the attributes of the those games relative to my predictions. New games are out today.

I need to figure out how to bet the games the system is predicting close to perfect. Btw... OT games I treat with their score in regulation. I do not take OT into account even if I win.

Dave

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 11:43 AM

Week 9 Games ...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	NEWMEXICOST	20	LOUISIANATEC	25	45	-3	52	2Close	Under
7:30 PM	LIBERTY	35	WKENTUCKY	23	58	4	60	2Close	2Close
7:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	35	FLAINTERNATI	11	46	7.5	44.5	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	UTEP	20	SAMHOUSTONST	20	40	-3.5	36	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	SYRACUSE	23	VIRGINIATECH	24	47	-3	47	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	GEORGIAST	26	GASOUTHERN	40	66	-2.5	62	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	FLAATLANTIC	27	CHARLOTTE	14	41	5	41	Away -	2Close
12:00 PM	MASSACHUSETT	20	ARMY	38	58	-10	48	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	CONNECTICUT	17	BOSTONCOLLEG	39	56	-13	52.5	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	FLORIDAST	39	WAKEFOREST	13	52	20.5	53	Away -	2Close
12:00 PM	WVIRGINIA	25	UCF	37	62	-7	59.5	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	INDIANA	0	PENNST	52	52	-32.5	44	Home -	Over
12:00 PM	MARYLAND	32	NORTHWESTERN	9	41	13	48.5	2Close	Under
12:00 PM	COLORADO	24	UCLA	50	74	-16.5	64	2Close	Over
12:00 PM	HOUSTON	24	KANSASST	49	73	-17	60	2Close	Over
12:00 PM	SCAROLINA	16	TEXASA&M	38	54	-14	53.5	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	TULSA	12	SMU	48	60	-19.5	57	2Close	Over

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 11:44 AM

More picks

1:00 PM	WMICHIGAN	27	EMICHIGAN	15	42	1.5	45	Away -	2Close
1:00 PM	OKLAHOMA	45	KANSAS	18	63	10	66	Away -	2Close
1:00 PM	OREGON	37	UTAH	13	50	7	49	Away -	Over
1:00 PM	GEORGIA	38	FLORIDA	13	51	14.5	49	2Close	2Close
1:00 PM	OHIOST	28	WISCONSIN	16	44	15	43.5	2Close	2Close
2:00 PM	CLEMSON	36	NCSTATE	14	50	10	44	2Close	Over
3:00 PM	MEMPHIS	42	NORTHTEXAS	32	74	7.5	67.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	MICHIGANST	17	MINNESOTA	20	37	-7	40.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	VIRGINIA	13	MIAMI	45	58	-18.5	47.5	2Close	Over
3:30 PM	DUKE	18	LOUISVILLE	26	44	-4	47	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	SOUTHERNMISS	20	APPALACHIANS	50	70	-18.5	55.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	MIAMIOHIO	9	OHIOU	23	32	-7	40	2Close	Under
3:30 PM	PURDUE	23	NEBRASKA	20	43	-3	41.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	PITTSBURGH	5	NOTREDAME	30	35	-19.5	45	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	IOWAST	22	BAYLOR	24	46	2	47	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	BYU	13	TEXAS	42	55	-17	50.5	Home -	Over
3:30 PM	MISSISSIPPIS	16	AUBURN	23	39	-7	43.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	ECAROLINA	14	UTSA	36	50	-17.5	47	2Close	2Close
4:00 PM	USC	41	CALIFORNIA	31	72	11	67	Away -	2Close
4:00 PM	TULANE	27	RICE	20	47	11.5	54	2Close	Under

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 11:45 AM

5:00 PM	ARKANSASST	27	LAMONROE	26	53	-2	57	2Close	2Close
5:00 PM	LALAFAYETTE	21	SALABAMA	36	57	-10	52.5	2Close	2Close
5:30 PM	WYOMING	24	BOISEST	31	55	-5	49	2Close	2Close
6:00 PM	MARSHALL	34	COASTALCAROL	29	63	4	48	2Close	2Close
7:00 PM	TENNESSEE	34	KENTUCKY	13	47	3.5	51.5	2Close	2Close
7:00 PM	AIRFORCE	36	COLORADOST	18	54	12	49	2Close	2Close
7:00 PM	WASHINGTON	49	STANFORD	12	61	26.5	59.5	2Close	2Close
7:00 PM	TROY	31	TEXASST	26	57	6	52.5	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	VANDERBILT	15	OLEMISS	52	67	-25	63.5	Home -	2Close
8:00 PM	NCAROLINA	47	GEORGIATECH	22	69	11.5	63.5	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	OLDDOMINION	13	JAMESMADISON	36	49	-17.5	49	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	WASHINGTONST	36	ARIZONAST	26	62	6.5	51.5	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	CINCINNATI	32	OKLAHOMAST	34	66	-7.5	54	2Close	2Close
10:30 PM	UNLV	26	FRESNOST	40	66	-9.5	58.5	2Close	2Close
10:30 PM	OREGONST	29	ARIZONA	27	56	3.5	56.5	2Close	2Close
10:30 PM	NEWMEXICO	31	NEVADA	24	55	-1.5	50.5	Away +	2Close
12:00 AM	SANJOSEST	34	HAWAII	26	60	8.5	61	2Close	2Close

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 11:46 AM

My system rarely picks Away + games...

So pay attention to New Mexico game. Past data has Away+ hitting 75%.

Dave

A Quant · 10-24-23, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

I made minor adjustments... before kick off that changed minor details. But yes approximately 13-14. I am not happy with those results and will try again this week. I have no problem you keeping me honestly. I got the Air Force game as a push since I go the line at -11 but the rest is right. Disappointed in Tennessee.

This week was better but not what I had hoped. Felt like the Over/Unders were very unfair. I am not changing any of the projected point totals. I am merely trying to figure out how to read them with respect to betting.

I have spent significant time looking at games and the attributes of the those games relative to my predictions. New games are out today.

I need to figure out how to bet the games the system is predicting close to perfect. Btw... OT games I treat with their score in regulation. I do not take OT into account even if I win.

Dave

Dave, with all due respect--- even if you graded AF as a push, you did not win 9 sides.

And, I am even more confused--- you grade a bet a loss if it goes to OT, even if Vegas would pay out for a TOTAL? Why would you grade an actual Vegas win, as a loss?

Just helping you out here, but if you are posting on a gambling forum, and list the game at -11.5, and when it falls on 11, you suddenly claim a push-- its a recipe for losing credibility.

You get judged on the lines you post, not the lines you insist you had AFTER the game is played.

Your posted record to date is 24-38 on sides (38.7%) and overall record is 54-67 (44.6%).

The last 2 weeks since you revamped your system, you are 13-18 on sides (41.9%), and 25-26 (49%) overall.

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 04:20 PM

All right Ricky Bobby... with all due respect... I am the only one posting exact mathematical points on this board to my knowledge. Actually, you really aren't helping much. I wish you would analyze the games and tell me where I was exact and where I was off instead. Or better yet, if you completely disagree with the model and the pick... tell me why and if it comes in your way... I will try to find a way to model it.

Street credibility... again... I am posting for all to see well ahead of schedule and if one game changes a .5... and that is what you are concentrating on... have at it. LOL. My system to this point hasn't been successful... at least on college. NFL has been working though I only went 3-3 last week. Philadelphia decided to kneel on the 6 yard line... really?

My large revamp didn't occur until this past weekend... when I changed my approach to my filters. Yes, I still lost but not by much. So if you are going to start counting against me... start it from last week.

My approach to the filters is far more logical this past week. I compared the actual to the projected outcome by me and those games that were winners or dead on... I tried to identify what were the trends. For instance, did they all have strong defenses or pass very little or have negative z scores in multiple categories.

I believe I have far better algorithms this week with regard to my filters but my approach started last week. I am in this for the long term. I also made adjustments to the spread bets.

I am cautiously optimistic... but A Quant... Teddy Roosevelt gave a great speech... a portion of it was called the Man in the Arena. You might consider reading it.

Dave

A Quant · 10-24-23, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

All right Ricky Bobby... with all due respect... I am the only one posting exact mathematical points on this board to my knowledge. Actually, you really aren't helping much. I wish you would analyze the games and tell me where I was exact and where I was off instead. Or better yet, if you completely disagree with the model and the pick... tell me why and if it comes in your way... I will try to find a way to model it.

Street credibility... again... I am posting for all to see well ahead of schedule and if one game changes a .5... and that is what you are concentrating on... have at it. LOL. My system to this point hasn't been successful... at least on college. NFL has been working though I only went 3-3 last week. Philadelphia decided to kneel on the 6 yard line... really?

My large revamp didn't occur until this past weekend... when I changed my approach to my filters. Yes, I still lost but not by much. So if you are going to start counting against me... start it from last week.

My approach to the filters is far more logical this past week. I compared the actual to the projected outcome by me and those games that were winners or dead on... I tried to identify what were the trends. For instance, did they all have strong defenses or pass very little or have negative z scores in multiple categories.

I believe I have far better algorithms this week with regard to my filters but my approach started last week. I am in this for the long term. I also made adjustments to the spread bets.

I am cautiously optimistic... but A Quant... Teddy Roosevelt gave a great speech... a portion of it was called the Man in the Arena. You might consider reading it.

Dave

Wait, now we are just to only look at your most recent results?

Are you kidding me?

Every week you come out with a "new" filter, which corresponds to a losing week.

5 weeks you have been posting these, and 5 weeks you have lost.

My point-- and I'll slow it down. You can not and will never create a model that will win you money when you continue to make 12-20 picks a week.

There are much smarter guys than you and I who have tried modeling college football--- and no one beats the board betting as many games as you do.

And you are proving me right.

You keep firing, keep playing 10-12 sides a week and you will lose. Watch.

usma1992 · 10-24-23, 09:11 PM

I think you are wrong

DJK · 10-24-23, 10:51 PM

It was a good thing that I didn't see these posts before I made my parlay bet.

You were extremely close for the Liberty game score wise, but had the wrong team winning for the New Mexico St vs LA Tech.

Had I followed your model, I would had to bet both favorites but LA Tech lost SU.

In the end, there is no modeling or programming that's going to get you what you think could be possible.

usma1992 · 10-25-23, 05:53 AM

I think the opposite. I think my model validated your thoughts on Liberty and told you to bet the under on the other game. You would at least be 1-0... and if you stuck with Liberty 2-0.

And with 4:30 to go... my score was exact on the Liberty game. I predicted 35 -23... oh wait it was 35-22... didn't mean to say exact. Btw... it was only 35-22 because they went for two and missed it. If they kick the extra point it would have been exact.

Ill stay my course. I can always filter back to less games. But I want to see if I can create a minimum risk decent reward model. Spreading over multiple games gives me that risk/reward profile... if I can get it predict accurately. Last week and this week are true tests to my algorithms.
Dave

A Quant · 10-25-23, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

I think the opposite. I think my model validated your thoughts on Liberty and told you to bet the under on the other game. You would at least be 1-0... and if you stuck with Liberty 2-0.

And with 4:30 to go... my score was exact on the Liberty game. I predicted 35 -23... oh wait it was 35-22... didn't mean to say exact. Btw... it was only 35-22 because they went for two and missed it. If they kick the extra point it would have been exact.

Ill stay my course. I can always filter back to less games. But I want to see if I can create a minimum risk decent reward model. Spreading over multiple games gives me that risk/reward profile... if I can get it predict accurately. Last week and this week are true tests to my algorithms.
Dave

Okay, fair.

Last week you went 13-14.

If you lose again this week and come back telling us about how you are changing your filters and next week is the real start to your system, then I am done with this. You will have proven me right.

usma1992 · 10-25-23, 07:42 AM

You seem like you are hating... my approach to my algorithms will remain for the foreseeable future. However, I will always look to improve my filters but I am comfortable with where they are now. The more data however... I will look to improve.

Instead of hating, look at my predictions and tell me which ones you completely disagree with and why. Again, if you want to help. If the games come in as you state and the way you state... I will try to add or model those improvements. At this point... read the speech MAN IN THE ARENA.

Too funny... the amount of things I have accomplished that people said were impossible... is a long list. But yes... I am looking forward to this weekend. And if it hits... these will be your words... "its just one weekend"... and you will reflect back to the other weekends. Guaranteed.

Dave

usma1992 · 10-25-23, 08:16 AM

Btw... altering the filters... isn't as easy as you think. The points remain the same but I have to look at how to value each game differently. In addition, I have to make test the filters over past years. They have to be consistent over several years. I am not just changing the filters for the current week.

Every change is back tested to make sure it worked in the past. I spend hours trying different algorithms based on scenarios and then back testing them. Often algorithms work for one year but not previous years... so I have to throw them out.

It is very tedious work... but I can tell I am getting closer.

Dave

A Quant · 10-25-23, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

You seem like you are hating... my approach to my algorithms will remain for the foreseeable future. However, I will always look to improve my filters but I am comfortable with where they are now. The more data however... I will look to improve.

Instead of hating, look at my predictions and tell me which ones you completely disagree with and why. Again, if you want to help. If the games come in as you state and the way you state... I will try to add or model those improvements. At this point... read the speech MAN IN THE ARENA.

Too funny... the amount of things I have accomplished that people said were impossible... is a long list. But yes... I am looking forward to this weekend. And if it hits... these will be your words... "its just one weekend"... and you will reflect back to the other weekends. Guaranteed.

Dave

Don't fall down patting yourself on the back. I have to ask--- what have your accomplished? On this board, you have a hit rate of 38%.

That is NOT hating. That is fact.

This is a gambling board. It is 100% results driven. Close does not count.

I want everyone to win. Everyone. You winning does NOT cost me a dime. If you can develop a system that hits at 58-60%, that is pure magic. But Dave, you have ZERO humility in your game. Every week you lose-- and you LOSE A LOT--- gets explained away with "I have to adjust my filters, the real work begins next week"--- you constantly move the line in the sand.

Which leads me to this. You really are not betting your own selections. Because, if you were/are, then your losses are with you, and there is no starting new week-to-week. When gamblers run cold, they are aware of it, and hope to catch a heater to get back to zero. You don't seem to be bothered at all by hitting 38%, which leads me to believe that you are not betting these games at all, and are simply trying to see if you can develop a system to drum up some potential clients--- touty? When I have a bad weekend, and I have them-- I can tell you to the dime how much I lost. And I am smart enough to know, if I find an edge, I have to exploit it, but there simply are not 10-12 edge selections per week. That is like hunting a unicorn in a field of four leaf clovers outside the city of Atlantis.

usma1992 · 10-25-23, 06:32 PM

First, of course, I bet my own games. I must to give a fair shake. I don't believe in not betting the games you pick. NFL has made up for college so far so I am actually up this season. Barely, but up.

Second, I am not asking for anything and I am ecstatic about the progression of my system. I have made significant progress and I will be ready for next season. In addition, the lessons learned will be parlayed into College Basketball.

Over/Unders will only be bet from week 3- week 7. Spread bets are too sporadic because of the level of competition.

I am not touting anything or asking for anything. If you have games, you think I am way off on please tell me and justify them.

Let's see what the weekend brings. I am cautiously optimistic.

Dave