NCAAF picks... for Week 5...

[usma1992]

Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:30 PM MIDDLETENNST 28 WKENTUCKY 31 59 -5.5 60 Too Close Too Close 7:30 PM TEMPLE 33 TULSA 28 61 -3.5 55 Away ML Too Close 8:00 PM JACKSONVILLE 29 SAMHOUSTONST 0 29 6.5 37 Away Minus Too Close 7:00 PM LOUISVILLE 31 NCSTATE 25 56 3.5 55.5 Too Close Too Close 9:00 PM LOUISIANATEC 29 UTEP 20 49 -1 52.5 Away ML Too Close 9:00 PM UTAH 19 OREGONST 22 41 -3 44.5 Too Close Too Close 10:15 PM CINCINNATI 30 BYU 22 52 -2.5 48.5 Away ML Too Close 12:00 PM PENNST 45 NORTHWESTERN 5 50 26.5 46.5 Too Close Too Close 12:00 PM CLEMSON 34 SYRACUSE 28 62 6.5 52 Too Close Too Close 12:00 PM UTAHST 39 CONNECTICUT 18 57 5 51 Away Minus Too Close 12:00 PM FLORIDA 18 KENTUCKY 16 34 -2.5 46.5 Too Close Under 12:00 PM SALABAMA 19 JAMESMADISON 26 45 -3.5 51.5 Too Close Too Close 12:00 PM BUFFALO 35 AKRON 34 69 -2.5 55.5 Too Close Over 12:00 PM LALAFAYETTE 26 MINNESOTA 23 49 -13 48.5 Too Close Too Close 12:00 PM USC 47 COLORADO 22 69 21.5 73.5 Too Close Too Close 12:00 PM UAB 20 TULANE 33 53 -21.5 57.5 Too Close Too Close 12:00 PM TEXASA&M 35 ARKANSAS 15 50 7 55 Away Minus Too Close

[usma1992]

4:00 PM MISSOURI 28 VANDERBILT 19 47 13.5 56 Too Close Too Close 6:00 PM LSU 36 OLEMISS 27 63 3 65.5 Too Close Too Close 6:30 PM OREGON 56 STANFORD 3 59 27 61 Too Close Too Close 7:00 PM TROY 29 GEORGIAST 24 53 -1 51 Away ML Too Close 7:00 PM COASTALCAROL 25 GASOUTHERN 40 65 -6.5 62 Too Close Too Close 7:00 PM IOWAST 6 OKLAHOMA 39 45 -20 48 Too Close Too Close 7:00 PM TEXASST 34 SOUTHERNMISS 22 56 7 60.5 Too Close Too Close 7:00 PM ECAROLINA 23 RICE 27 50 -3 48.5 Too Close Too Close 7:30 PM SCAROLINA 17 TENNESSEE 40 57 -13 63.5 Too Close Too Close 7:30 PM NOTREDAME 21 DUKE 15 36 5.5 51.5 Too Close Under 7:30 PM MICHIGANST 15 IOWA 13 28 -11.5 36.5 Too Close Too Close 7:30 PM CHARLOTTE 2 SMU 46 48 -23.5 56 Home Minus Too Close 8:00 PM PITTSBURGH 17 VIRGINIATECH 16 33 2.5 41 Too Close Too Close 8:00 PM APPALACHIANS 43 LAMONROE 5 48 13.5 52.5 Away Minus Too Close 8:00 PM WVIRGINIA 22 TCU 39 61 -11 51 Too Close Too Close 8:00 PM SANDIEGOST 11 AIRFORCE 36 47 -10.5 43.5 Home Minus Too Close 9:00 PM ALABAMA 27 MISSISSIPPIS 11 38 14.5 47.5 Too Close Too Close 10:00 PM WASHINGTON 38 ARIZONA 17 55 17.5 68 Too Close Too Close 10:30 PM NEVADA 10 FRESNOST 60 70 -24.5 53 Home Minus Over

[usma1992]

1:30 PM	EMICHIGAN	21	CMICHIGAN	21		42	-7.5	48		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	VIRGINIA	23	BOSTONCOLLEG	34		57	-3	54.5		Too Close	Too Close
2:30 PM	MIAMIOHIO	28	KENTST	19		47	14.5	49		Home Plus	Too Close
3:00 PM	ARIZONAST	17	CALIFORNIA	42		59	-12	50		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	BOWLINGGREEN	8	GEORGIATECH	42		50	-22.5	52.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	INDIANA	12	MARYLAND	36		48	-14	50		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	BAYLOR	24	UCF	46		70	-12.5	55		Too Close	Over
3:30 PM	OLDDOMINION	5	MARSHALL	33		38	-14	46.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	BALLST	20	WMICHIGAN	28		48	-1	52		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	ARKANSASST	22	MASSACHUSETT	28		50	-1.5	55		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	MICHIGAN	21	NEBRASKA	16		37	17	40		Home Plus	Too Close
3:30 PM	SFLORIDA	28	NAVY	25		53	-3.5	54		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	ILLINOIS	30	PURDUE	31		61	0	52.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	NILLINOIS	13	TOLEDO	33		46	-13	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	HOUSTON	26	TEXASTECH	40		66	-10	51.5		Too Close	Over
3:30 PM	GEORGIA	35	AUBURN	8		43	14.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	KANSAS	15	TEXAS	29		44	-17	63		Too Close	Under
4:00 PM	NEWMEXICO	15	WYOMING	22		37	-14.5	42		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	HAWAII	26	UNLV	32		58	-11	59		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	BOISEST	21	MEMPHIS	39		60	-3.5	59.5		Home Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

Had a small software glitch on times and a couple of games. So I fixed the picks and reuploaded. Maybe my projections will at least steer you away from games that you might otherwise pound the table on. My model is strictly mathematical but I also try to play Vegas against themselves. This is 10+ years in the making... however, it does seem to be finally working or very close.

I am also taking a different approach to betting. I am choosing to bet multiple games and spread the risk and still attempt to hit a winning weekend. Week 6 ... I believe I will show results. Two things I can not take into account at this moment are injuries and bad weather so be careful.

Dave

[usma1992]

What I believe makes my system unique is that it provides a projected score of each team. If you don't like the system picks you can at least look at the math behind the scores for your picks. Maybe the math will give you more confidence or less after you examine the numbers.

[A Quant]

I love systems--- especially anyone using models.

I am only updating because of that......

I hope you turn it around and slay it---

This week you were 9-12 overall

Broken down--

3-7 on ATS sides
2-2 on ML games
4-3 on Totals

Total of 9-12.

Keep after it.

[usma1992]

A Quant ... I appreciate your input... I have concluded based on my past years and current year experience that spread bets should not be made until at least week 6 of the season. There is too big of a disparity in the first few weeks of college ball because some of the games are all over the map. They begin to normalize around there. Truth is that Week 7 is probably a better time to start. I am not changing my projected totals at all but I am trying to find out the sweet spot in betting.

So this week I have run the system with two different betting parameters... but the same projected scores. I am trying to see if it is better to bet a wider or lesser amount of games.

For instance... I changed my Under Parameter from -11.5 to -9.5... which means if my projected score is less than 9.5 versus the Vegas total bet the under.

At -11.5 it chooses far less games.

Dave