Mike Man's NCAAF System Plays

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  • Mike Man
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-12-09
    • 182

    #1
    Mike Man's NCAAF System Plays
    I've backtested this system with data from the last four years and I'm trying it out live for the first time this year, so I thought I'd share my picks along the way.

    I will be taking the away underdog on the spread and ML in certain games. To qualify, the following three criteria must be met:
    1) The closing line at Pinnacle for the home team must be from 0 to -10.
    2) The away underdog must be taken by only 0 - 32% of the betting public (as determined by SportsInsights).
    3) In comparing the opening and closing lines at Pinnacle for the home team, a smart money move must occur (i.e. the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting public as determined by SportsInsights).

    Here's how the system tested the last four years:
    2005: Spread 12-5 +5.9 units, ML 11-6 +23.6 units
    2006: Spread 16-12 +2.5 units, ML 14-14 +13.1 units
    2007: Spread 19-8 +9.3 units, ML 11-16 +4.0 units
    2008: Spread 18-4 +12.4 units, ML 14-8 +27.4 units.

    I can't promise that I will be able to post every games when it becomes official (on occasion line move or betting percentage changes at the last minute will make make or unmake a game a play), but I will do my best to post them ahead of time.

    This week's plays so far (subject to change up to gametime):
    Missouri
  • Mike Man
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-12-09
    • 182

    #2
    Just learned that the Missouri/Illinois game is being played in St.Louis, not exactly a home game for Illinois.

    UPDATE: This week's plays so far (subject to change up to gametime):
    None
    Comment
    • Mike Man
      SBR High Roller
      • 07-12-09
      • 182

      #3
      No plays qualify today.
      Comment
      • Mike Man
        SBR High Roller
        • 07-12-09
        • 182

        #4
        Week 2

        Only play that qualifies right now is LA Tech (26% of public and line went from +7.5 to +7). Most books are +7.5, but if Pinnacle holds on at +7 it will be a play. Back later to confirm.
        Comment
        • Mike Man
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-12-09
          • 182

          #5
          Official Pick Week 2

          LA Tech +7
          LA Tech ML +264
          Comment
          • Mike Man
            SBR High Roller
            • 07-12-09
            • 182

            #6
            YTD: 0-2 -2.1 units.

            Back next week to try again.
            Comment
            • Mike Man
              SBR High Roller
              • 07-12-09
              • 182

              #7
              Week 3

              No plays qualify right now. Will be back if anything changes.
              Comment
              • Mike Man
                SBR High Roller
                • 07-12-09
                • 182

                #8
                YTD: 0-2 -2.1 units.

                Back next week to try again.
                Comment
                • Mike Man
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-12-09
                  • 182

                  #9
                  Week 4

                  Pretty boring stuff going on right now.
                  Again no plays are qualifying right now (Marshall vs Memphis is close).
                  Back later if anything changes.
                  Comment
                  • Mike Man
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 07-12-09
                    • 182

                    #10
                    McNeese St just became a play. It's an added play, so we can only bet the spread. Back at 3:30 to confirm as official play.
                    Comment
                    • Mike Man
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 07-12-09
                      • 182

                      #11
                      Official Play

                      McNeese St +3

                      Cal Poly at 8PM is currently a play, back then to make it official.
                      Comment
                      • Mike Man
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 07-12-09
                        • 182

                        #12
                        Official Play

                        Cal Poly +6
                        Comment
                        • Mike Man
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-12-09
                          • 182

                          #13
                          YTD: 0-4 -4.3 units.

                          Back next week to try to pick some winners.
                          Comment
                          • Mike Man
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 07-12-09
                            • 182

                            #14
                            Not looking like any plays here in Week 5. Oh where have all the plays from the past years gone?
                            Comment
                            • Mike Man
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 07-12-09
                              • 182

                              #15
                              Week 5

                              There may actually be plays tomorrow. Purdue and Kentucky currently qualify and New Mexico is close. Back tomorrow to make them official.
                              Comment
                              • HoulihansTX
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 02-12-09
                                • 30566

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Mike Man
                                There may actually be plays tomorrow. Purdue and Kentucky currently qualify and New Mexico is close. Back tomorrow to make them official.
                                If your system starts telling you to play New "Putrid" Mexico throw it in the garbage, burn it, and never speak of it again.
                                Comment
                                • Mike Man
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 07-12-09
                                  • 182

                                  #17
                                  Official Play

                                  Purdue +3
                                  Purdue ML +136
                                  Comment
                                  • Mike Man
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 07-12-09
                                    • 182

                                    #18
                                    Official Play

                                    Kentucky +9
                                    Kentucky ML +273
                                    Comment
                                    • Mike Man
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 07-12-09
                                      • 182

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                      If your system starts telling you to play New "Putrid" Mexico throw it in the garbage, burn it, and never speak of it again.
                                      No play on New Mexico, phew!
                                      Comment
                                      • Mike Man
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 07-12-09
                                        • 182

                                        #20
                                        YTD: 1-7 -6.4 units.
                                        Comment
                                        • Mike Man
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 07-12-09
                                          • 182

                                          #21
                                          Two plays currently qualify: NC State and Hawaii. Back later to confirm them as official.
                                          Comment
                                          • Mike Man
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 07-12-09
                                            • 182

                                            #22
                                            Official Play

                                            NC State +2.5
                                            NC State ML +111
                                            Comment
                                            • Mike Man
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 07-12-09
                                              • 182

                                              #23
                                              Official Play

                                              Haw +7.5
                                              Haw ML +256
                                              Comment
                                              • paul8888
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 10-12-09
                                                • 144

                                                #24
                                                not lookin so good bro, appreciate your efforts tho!
                                                Comment
                                                • Mike Man
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 07-12-09
                                                  • 182

                                                  #25
                                                  YTD: 1-11 -10.6 units.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mike Man
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 07-12-09
                                                    • 182

                                                    #26
                                                    Week 8

                                                    Lots of playing qualifying right now. Is this the week I finally win some game? UAB, Kent, Clemson, UCLA, and Arizona St currently qualify with Maryland very close. Back later to make them official.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mike Man
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 07-12-09
                                                      • 182

                                                      #27
                                                      Official Play

                                                      Uab +7
                                                      uab ml +244
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Mike Man
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 07-12-09
                                                        • 182

                                                        #28
                                                        Official Play

                                                        Clemson +4
                                                        Clemson ML +180
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mike Man
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 07-12-09
                                                          • 182

                                                          #29
                                                          Official Play

                                                          Ucla +7.5
                                                          ucla ml +264
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mike Man
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 07-12-09
                                                            • 182

                                                            #30
                                                            YTD: 3-15 -12.0 units.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mike Man
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 07-12-09
                                                              • 182

                                                              #31
                                                              Week 9

                                                              Four plays currently qualify, Southern Mississippi, Kansas, Arkansas St, and Louisiana Tech. Back later to make them official.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JIMBOK
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 09-13-09
                                                                • 48

                                                                #32
                                                                Just a suggestion ... Try backtesting with lines between 4 and 13 becasue somtimes the smart money moves are false because the money line is moving the spread against the grain
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Mike Man
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 07-12-09
                                                                  • 182

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Official Play

                                                                  Southern Miss +6.5
                                                                  Southern Miss ML +231
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mike Man
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 07-12-09
                                                                    • 182

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by JIMBOK
                                                                    Just a suggestion ... Try backtesting with lines between 4 and 13 becasue somtimes the smart money moves are false because the money line is moving the spread against the grain
                                                                    Let me try to understand what you're saying. 1) Sometimes the spread moves in the opposite direction of the moneyline? or is it 2) The spread is just moving to catch up with the moneyline that didn't move?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Mike Man
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 07-12-09
                                                                      • 182

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Official Plays

                                                                      Kansas +6.5
                                                                      Kansas ML +231

                                                                      Arkansas St +1.5
                                                                      Arkansas St ML +109
                                                                      Comment
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