2009 Sharp Plays Editon (season long thread)

[voiceofreason101]

Introduction: Names VOR I post across the street at the RX. Well I was born, raised, and graduated in Miami (U). This is going to be my 3rd full season posting my plays. I have been a big admirer of Pags plays over the years, he and some others have been a pretty big influence into shapping me to the handicapper I am today.

My system: Ultimately it deals with value, match ups, spot, and perception.

If you want to tail me or your a newcomer to the gambling world this is how the process works? First you need to open accounts with the books that I work with.

Offshore Books: Offshore Books are located all over the internet. I only use the books which have been known to give no trouble with payouts, etc. I currently only deal with 4 of them (more than enough IMHO).

4 books are? betjamaica.com, Matchbook.com, 5dimes.com, and Bookmaker.com. So if you plan on tailing me I highly suggest getting down with these ASAP.

How to open an account? Its quite easy just call the customer support number and they'll walk you through the process. Make sure to see if they have any promotions as in bonuses, etc. and take advantage of that.

Bankroll! (VERY IMPORTANT) This all depends on what your ambitions are and how your financial status looks like. Whatever the case you need to make sure that your biggest bet (my 2* "if" you decide on tailing me) is no bigger than 3% of your bankroll. For example: if your gonna bet my 2* at $300 you need a $10,000 bankroll etc...Some purists argue that your max should be 2% well to each their own.

This year I'll be posting my units only to avoid confusion. I'm personally betting my 2* at $500, 1* at $250, .5* at $125 etc.this season.

2*= strong play (hit over 6

1*= medium play (hit 58% last season)

..5/.25*= Small plays (hit 55% last season)
1.8* Army +3.5 -103 (Matchbook)
.2* Army ML +155 (5Dimes)
1* Ohio +3.5 +104 (Matchbook)
.8* Ohio +4 -110 (Bookmaker)
.2* Ohio ML +160 (5 Dimes)
2* UAB -6 +104 (Matchbook)
2* UTEP -8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
1.5* Wake Forest -2 -110 (Bookmaker)
1* Penn State -29.5 +101 (Matchbook)
1* Ohio State Buckeyes -22 -102 (Matchbook)
.75* Nevada +14.5 +101 (Matchbook)
.75* BYU +22 +103 (Matchbook)
.75* SJ State +34 -108 (5 Dimes)
.75* Toledo +10.5 -110 (The Greek)
.5* Mizzouri +7 -110 (Bodog)
.5* Kentucky -14' -115 (Greek)
.5* Stanford -16.5 -108 (5Dimes)
.5* LSU -17' -120 (Bookmaker)
.35* Minnesota -7 +104 (Matchbook)
.35* Texas -41.5 -107 (Matchbook)
.35* OLE Miss -17 -103 (Matchbook)
.35* Oklahoma State -5.5 -102 (5Dimes)
.35* LA Tech +14 -115 (Bodog)

This is not a vice its an investment

Note: Possible upgrade with Mizzouri, gonna sleep on it. If I was to upgrade the play it will be posted before noon eastern.

GL

[pags11]

VOR,

thanks for the props...GL tomorrow my friend...

[voiceofreason101]

Final Card for Week 1

2*= strong play (hit over 62 last season)

1*= medium play (hit 58% last season)

..5/.25*= Small plays (hit 55% last season)



1.8* Army +3.5 -103 (Matchbook)
.2* Army ML +155 (5Dimes)
1* Ohio +3.5 +104 (Matchbook)
.8* Ohio +4 -110 (Bookmaker)
.2* Ohio ML +160 (5 Dimes)
2* UAB -6 +104 (Matchbook)
2* UTEP -8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
1.5* Wake Forest -2 -110 (Bookmaker)
1* Penn State -29.5 +101 (Matchbook)
1* Ohio State Buckeyes -22 -102 (Matchbook)
.75* Nevada +14.5 +101 (Matchbook)
.75* BYU +22 +103 (Matchbook)
.75* SJ State +34 -108 (5 Dimes)
.75* Toledo +10.5 -110 (The Greek)
.5* Mizzouri +7 -110 (Bodog)
.10* Mizzour +7 -110 (Bodog)
.5* Kentucky -14' -115 (Greek)
.5* Stanford -16.5 -108 (5Dimes)
.5* LSU -17' -120 (Bookmaker)
.35* Minnesota -7 +104 (Matchbook)
.15* Minnesota -7 +101 (Matchbook)
.35* Texas -41.5 -107 (Matchbook)
.35* OLE Miss -17 -103 (Matchbook)
.35* Oklahoma State -5.5 -102 (5Dimes)
.35* LA Tech +14 -115 (Bodog)


Small upgrades with both Mizzouri/Minnesota.

[voiceofreason101]

Pags: no problem bud, your the man, wacky Saturday though.

adding:

.25* Colorado -10.5 -110 (Bodog)

[voiceofreason101]

YTD: 9-12 -5.2245 Units


Week 2

2* Oregon -11.5 -110 (Greek)
2* LSU -14 -120 (Greek)

forgot to post in this site so I'm going to post available lines.

[voiceofreason101]

Tonights game:

.25* Miami/FSU O47.5 -101 (Matchbook)

[voiceofreason101]

.35* GTECH U45 -110 (Bodog)
.25* Gtech -4.5 -110 (Greek)


sorry for the late post

[bostonboss]

good it was late

[voiceofreason101]

YTD: 10-14 -5.6345


2* Oregon -11.5 -110 (Greek)
2* LSU -14 -120 (Greek)
2.15* North Texas +3 -115 (Bodog)
.35* North Texas ML +125 (Greek)
2.35* UNLV +7 -103 (Matchbook)
.15* UNLV +7 +250 (Greek)
2.50* Arkansas State +21.5' -115 (BetJam)
2.25* Michigan +3 -105 (BetJam)
.25* Michigan ML +132 (Matchbook)
2* Duke ML -105 (Matchbook)
2* Boston College -21 +100 (Matchbook)
1.75* Idaho +21' -120 (Bodog)
1* Tenn Vols -10 -105 (BetJam)
1* Wyoming +23 -110 (Bodog)
.75* LA Tech +7.5 -105 (BetJam)
.75* San Jose State +14 -110 (Bodog)
.40* Stanford +3 -105 (BetJam)
.10* Stanford ML +134 (Matchbook)
.40* Air Force +3 -104 (Matchbook)
.10* Air Force ML +130 (BetJam)
.50* East Carolina +7 115' (BetJam)
.35* UCONN +5 -110 (Bodog

[voiceofreason101]

Typo: Wyoming +33 -110

A few friends (followers, etc.) wanted me to start doing write ups so here I am. They are very aware though that I'm not going to sit here and tell you what you already know. What I mean by that is you should know who the great players are on both sides, the coaching pedigrees, trends, stats, or any other elementary tools being used by 99% of the handicappers out there. If I do mention a player or coach is likely due to the fact that I think hes below the radar, etc. Anyways I'm not trying to distinguish myself by painting these games with glossy colors and adorning them with butterflies or juicy common knowledge information. We have guys on ABC/ESPN, CBS, FOX, and people all over the internet, etc. to do that for me. To me all that its important is spot, perception,value, and matchups. I'm going to do to my best in breaking these down simplistically without being pretentious.

Note: I'm only going to do write ups for games of 2* or higher.



Value: I'll post the line I have
Spots: I'll discuss why this game favors us in terms of home field, motivation, etc.
Perception: How the public perceives the teams
Match ups: Self explanatory

Oregon vs Purdue

Value: Oregon -13.5
Spot: Purdue having to travel, Kelly having to prove his worth as HC, moving on from Blount, etc.
Perception: Do I really need to elaborate here
Match ups: Purdue defense sucks-coaching and passing edge.

LSU vs Vandy

Value: LSU -15.5
Spot: LSU back home, Defense playing with a chip on their shoulder, etc.
Perception: LSU defense sucks, Washington almost beat them, etc.
Match ups: More talent in skill positions, better O/D line play, coaching.

North Texas vs Ohio

Value: NT +2
Spot: I believe this will be the 2nd largest crowd that Ohio sees behind Tennessee's. They better bring their road game because people are excited in Denton. 2-0? Not since 1994. K I'll stop now this is getting to festive
Perception: Both teams suck, NT has been a doormat since before I can crawl. Ohio at least has been a decent team a couple years ago, etc.
Machups: UNT has quite a few weapons this year with their pop pass attack along with their strong run game. Defense is improved some, little penalties translates into a win.

UNLV vs Oregon State

Value: +6
Spot: Hosting a PAC-10 team in 18 years enough said
Perception: Middle tier WAC team vs last years surprise Pac-10 team.
Match ups: Best wideouts and 2nd best QB (very accurate) in the Wac vs questionable Beaver pass defense.

Arkansas State vs Cornholes

Value: +20.5
Spot: Arkansas State super bowl
Perception: Sun belt vs Big 12, good running game vs superior run defense, spread offense vs piss poor defense
Match ups: this game out of all my big games is the most unique. Typically I stay away from strength against strength but in this game I think Arkansas State coach Steve Roberts will have some tricks up his sleeve .You see coach Roberts always schedules these early Big 12 teams to get his team ready for the Sun Belt conference games. His team should be at towards the top of those standings again this year and this game is one hes been working on all off season long for.

Michigan vs Notre Dame

Value: ND -1
Spot: Big House
Perception: Notre Dame getting more love, more experience offense, etc.
Match ups: Michigan defense, Rich Rod had extra time to put in offensive wrinkles tehe

Duke vs Army

Value: Duke -2
Spot: Duke avoiding 0-2 start
Perception: Losing against Richmond
Match ups: Army wasn't as good as last week and Duke wasn't as bad. Duke still has the better talent, etc.

Boston College vs Kent

Value BC -21.5 (waited too long here hence 2* instead of 2.5*)
Perception: Talking heads don't talk about BC. So why they're giving so many points?
Match ups: Will Kent score? Remember the name Montel Harris, I'll stop there



Honorable mention: USC by 3

[pags11]

GL tomorrow VOR...you the man bro...

[voiceofreason101]

2* Oregon -10 -105 (Greek)
2* LSU -14 -110 (Greek)
2.15* North Texas +3 -115 (Bodog)
.35* North Texas ML +125 (Greek)
2.35* UNLV +7 -103 (Matchbook)
.15* UNLV +7 +250 (Greek)
2.50* Arkansas State +21.5' -115 (BetJam)
2.25* Michigan +3 -105 (BetJam)
.25* Michigan ML +132 (Matchbook)
2* Duke ML -105 (Matchbook)
2* Boston College -21 +100 (Matchbook)
1.75* Idaho +21' -120 (Bodog)
1* Tenn Vols -10 -105 (BetJam)
1* Wyoming +33 -110 (Bodog) (typo)
.75* LA Tech +7.5 -105 (BetJam)
.75* San Jose State +14 -110 (Bodog)
.40* Stanford +3 -105 (BetJam)
.10* Stanford ML +134 (Matchbook)
.40* Air Force +3 -104 (Matchbook)
.10* Air Force ML +130 (BetJam)
.50* East Carolina +7 115' (BetJam)
.60* UNC -5 -103 (5Dimes)
.35* UCONN +5 -110 (Bodog)
.25* So. Miss -15 -110 (Greek)

[voiceofreason101]

.25*: Duke ML -120 2nd half

[voiceofreason101]

.10* So Miss -14 -130

[voiceofreason101]

.10* Ark State +7.5 -105 2nd half

[voiceofreason101]

.75* Idaho +8 -110 2nd half

[voiceofreason101]

.10* Michigan +1.5 +110 (Greek) 2nd half

[voiceofreason101]

1* Vandy +7 -105 2nd half

[voiceofreason101]

YTD: 20-26 -0.265

Week 3

2.5* Nevada -3 -110 (Greek)
2.5* Auburn -7 -110 (Bookmaker)
2.25* Syracuse +3 -104 (Matchbook)
.25* Syracuse ML +130 (Bodog)
2* Arizona +4 +100 (Matchbook)
2* Rutgers -16.5 -110 (Matchbook)
2* Wyoming +7 -110 (Bodog)
1* Oklahoma -17' -120 (Matchbook)
.75* North Carolina -7' -120 (Matchbook)
.75* Pitt -7' -123 (Matchbook)
.50* UNLV -7 -105 (Matchbook)
.50* Arkansas -2.5 +104 (Matchbook)
.50* Boston College +7 +100 (Matchbook)
.50* BYU -7' -123 (Matchbook)
.50* Cincinnati -1 -105 (Matchbook)
.25* Nebraska +5 -105 (Matchbook)
.25* Texas A&M -19.5 -106 (5Dimes)
.25* Texas -17.5 -110 (Greek)
.25* Kansas Jayhawks -24 +105 (Matchbook)
.25* Oklahoma State -33 -110 (Greek)

[pags11]

Gl vor...

[voiceofreason101]

Upgraded Plays/Typo on Wyoming

2.5* Nevada -3 -110 (Greek)
2.5* Auburn -7 -110 (Bookmaker)
2.25* Syracuse +3 -104 (Matchbook)
.25* Syracuse ML +130 (bodog)
2* Arizona +4 +100 (Matchbook)
2* Rutgers -16.5 -110 (Matchbook)
1* Oklahoma -17' -120 (Matchbook)
.25* Oklahoma -18 -101 (Matchbook)
1* Wyoming +7 -110 (bodog)
.75* Pitt -7' -123 (Matchbook)
.25* Pitt -7.5 -103 (Matchbook)
.75* North Carolina -7' -120 (Matchbook)
.50* Arkansas -2.5 +104 (Matchbook)
.50* UNLV -7 -105 (Matchbook)
.50* Boston College +7 +100 (Matchbook)
.50* BYU -7' -123 (Matchbook)
.50* Cincinnati -1 -105 (Matchbook)
.25* Nebraska +5 -105 (Matchbook)
.25* Texas A&M -19.5 -106 (5dimes)
.25* Texas -17.5 -110 (Greek)
.25* Kansas Jayhawks -24 +105 (Matchbook)
.25* Oklahoma State -33 -110 (Greek)




Nevada vs Colorado State

Value: -4.5
Spot: BYU look ahead for CSU, Nevada 2 weeks to prepare
Perception: 0 pts vs ND, 2-0 start for Rams, getting pts @ home
Match up: CSU won't be able to stop Nevada offense while Nevada pass defense won't be exposed by rams

West Virginia vs Auburn

Value: -7.5
Spot: home,chip on their shoulder,WVU road after revenge game
Perception: Too many points for a WVU that has had more recent success than there opponent.
Match up: Trenches will be well fought but overall better talent goes to the Tigers, better coaching, deeper backfield

NW vs Cuse

Value: PK
Spot: home, possible look ahead for cats with Big 10 games starting next week, Maine next week for Cuse=no look ahead
Perception: 2-0 vs 0-2 what else? Hmmm its Syracuse and you only have to lay the 3!
Match up: besides QB (let Nassib play) I think teams match up very evenly, Cuse D should keep the game close throughout. Turnovers key as usual.


Arizona vs Iowa

Value: +3
Spot: Ultimate Sandwich game for Iowa, ISU last week/Penn State next week.
Perception: Unimpressive wins by Zona, on the road, Iowa just pulverized ISU 35-3
Match ups: Tough match up for Stanzi/wideouts, give me Scott/Grisby plus the points in what should be a grind it out game

FIU vs Rutgers

Value: -19.5
Spot: FIU traveling to Jersey after Alabama week, Rutgers @ home playing with a chip on their shoulder
Peception: FIU covered against Bama, Rutgers down year, etc.
Match ups: Rutgers has more depth and talent, better coaching, like the kid Savage at home

[GiveMeaBJ]

VOR I used to be over at the RX and am glad to see you post here as well. You are one of the better bettors on these forums. Gl today.

[voiceofreason101]

adding:

.10* Army -7' -130 (Greek)

[voiceofreason101]

VOR I used to be over at the RX and am glad to see you post here as well. You are one of the better bettors on these forums. Gl today.

I really appreciate that sir, I wish you nothing but the best

[voiceofreason101]

adding:


.15* Kansas State +11.5 -110 (Bodog)

[masr]

Good Luck VOR..like some of your picks

[voiceofreason101]

2.5* Nevada -3 -110 (Greek) -2.75
2.5* Auburn -7 -110 (Bookmaker) -2.75
2.25* Syracuse +3 -104 (Matchbook) +2.25
.25* Syracuse ML +130 (Bodog) +.325
2* Arizona +4 +100 (Matchbook) -2
2* Rutgers -16.5 -110 (Matchbook) -2.2
1* Wyoming +7 -110 (Bodog) -1.1
1* Oklahoma -17' -120 (Matchbook) +1.25
.25* Oklahoma -18 -101 (Matchbook)
.75* North Carolina -7' -120 (Matchbook) +1.75
.75* Pitt -7' -123 (Matchbook)
.25* Pitt -7.5 -103 (Matchbook)
.50* UNLV -7 -105 (Matchbook) -.525
.50* Arkansas -2.5 +104 (Matchbook) -1
.50* Boston College +7 +100 (Matchbook)
.50* BYU -7' -123 (Matchbook) -.615
.50* Cincinnati -1 -105 (Matchbook) +.75
.25* Nebraska +5 -105 (Matchbook)
.25* Texas A&M -19.5 -106 (5Dimes) -.265
.25* Texas -17.5 -110 (Greek) -.275
.25* Kansas Jayhawks -24 +105 (Matchbook) +.265
.25* Oklahoma State -33 -110 (Greek) -.275
.10* Army -7' -130 (Greek) Push
.15* Kansas State +11.5 -110 (Bodog) -.165

7-13 -7.33

YTD: 27-39 -7.595

[voiceofreason101]

Typo:

Auburn covered

Week 3 results: 8-12 -2.08

YTD: 28-38 -2.345

[voiceofreason101]

2.5* Nevada -3 -110 (Greek) -2.75
2.5* Auburn -7 -110 (Bookmaker) +2.5
2.25* Syracuse +3 -104 (Matchbook) +2.25
.25* Syracuse ML +130 (Bodog) +.325
2* Arizona +4 +100 (Matchbook) -2
2* Rutgers -16.5 -110 (Matchbook) -2.2
1* Wyoming +7 -110 (Bodog) -1.1
1* Oklahoma -17' -120 (Matchbook) +1.25
.25* Oklahoma -18 -101 (Matchbook)
.75* North Carolina -7' -120 (Matchbook) +1.75
.75* Pitt -7' -123 (Matchbook)
.25* Pitt -7.5 -103 (Matchbook)
.50* UNLV -7 -105 (Matchbook) -.525
.50* Arkansas -2.5 +104 (Matchbook) -1
.50* Boston College +7 +100 (Matchbook)
.50* BYU -7' -123 (Matchbook) -.615
.50* Cincinnati -1 -105 (Matchbook) +.75
.25* Nebraska +5 -105 (Matchbook)
.25* Texas A&M -19.5 -106 (5Dimes) -.265
.25* Texas -17.5 -110 (Greek) -.275
.25* Kansas Jayhawks -24 +105 (Matchbook) +.265
.25* Oklahoma State -33 -110 (Greek) -.275
.10* Army -7' -130 (Greek) Push
.15* Kansas State +11.5 -110 (Bodog) -.165

Typo:

Auburn covered

Week 3 results: 8-12 -2.08

YTD: 28-38 -2.345

[voiceofreason101]

28-38 and to only be down 2.3 units is a beautiful thing, time to turn this around.

[voiceofreason101]

2* So. Miss +14 -110
1* Stanford -6.5 -110
1* Miami +1 -110
1* Kentucky +24 -110
1* UNLV -3.5 -110
.50* Arkansas State PK -110
.50* Fresno State +14 -110
.25* South Carolina +4.5 -110

All made with Bookmaker