Laxdjock's 2009 CFB Picks

[laxdjock]

I figured I'd start a thread to track my plays this year. I was a bit up and down last year (I bet on too many big games), but I made some tweaks to my approach and I think it should be a good year. My goal is to pick less games with a goal of 65%.

I won't be betting much in the first week or so (2 unit max per game), as I want to get a better feel for the games. Any and all feedback is welcome.

GL to everyone.

*edit*

For people who use the spreadsheet....do you clear it for each season or just keep it running? I'd like to start 0-0 again, as long as I can export to an excel sheet and play with the data. I'd like to look at my 2008 betting trends.

[MartinBlank]

Keep running it.

BOL

[pags11]

GL laxdjock...

[laxdjock]

Thanks Martin & pags!

[Cougar Bait]

Lax depending on how much you wager, +20 units is nothing to scoff at...looks like NFL is where you may have went wrong...I used to do parlays and I hit like 3 in a row and thought I was God. Then I learned later that year I wasn't. Now I just play straight up. A few bets to start the year off to wet your feet is a good idea. One I learned from Pags a couple years ago...it's always so hard too because that first week you are so psyched about the idea of having a full schedule of games to wager on...I look forward to your plays-GL buddy

[riggs]

Looking foward to your input this year man, BOL.

[SoonerBS]

Good luck, laxdjock! Let's make a lot of money this year!

[laxdjock]

Utah State +21 (-110), 2 units
OR v Boise St. o14 1Q (+115), 1 unit
OR v Boise St. o62.5 (-110), 1 unit

[laxdjock]

Well....I told someone else earlier in the week to not bet the Over in a first game....I guess I should have listened to myself....

[laxdjock]

Rough start. I need Utah St. to make a run!!

Btw, I took Boise +0.5 (-155) 2H, 2 units

[laxdjock]

Tulsa v. Tulane -14 (-125), 2 units

[laxdjock]

2009 CFB: 1-3, -1.97

Well...I can only go up from here.

[laxdjock]

Tulsa -7 (-115) 2H, 2 units
Tulsa -7 (-125) 2H, 2 units

I love Tulsa 2H, as Tulane doesn't have an answer....AND have at least another 2 TOs in them.

[laxdjock]

While it took a late score to push, we got screwed when they coughed up the ball ON THE GOAL LINE earlier in the game.

2-3-2, +0.03.....pathetic.
The only decent thing is I'm chipping away at my 4x rollover.

[Rixsaw]

It's a warm start bro. Things will heat up tomorrow. Rev that engine....good luck.

[laxdjock]

Navy +22.5, 2 units
PSU -7 (-125) 1Q, 2 units
Kentucky -16.5 (-110), 1 unit (it is spiking right now, I missed it at -14, blah)
Kentucky -3.5 (-105) 1Q, 2 units
Minnesota -7 (-105), 2 unit

[laxdjock]

Missouri +7 (-115), 2 units I was hoping it'd edge up from +6.5. The ML is +210 right now at TheGreek, which I may take a flyer on....I want to read up a bit more, as I think there is some value in the pick.

[laxdjock]

BYU +23 (-110), 2 units. I'm tailing pags on this, as I didn't initially consider this game, but he swayed me.

[laxdjock]

ND -14.5, 2 units
LSU -17, 2 units
Georgia ML (+170), 2 units

[laxdjock]

Navy +22.5, 2 units......WIN +2
PSU -7 (-125) 1Q, 2 units......WIN +2
Kentucky -16.5 (-110).....WIN +1
Kentucky -3.5 (-105)......LOSS -1.05
Minnesota -7 (-105), 2 unit......LOSS -2.10
Missouri +7 (-115), 2 units
BYU +23 (-110), 2 unit
Tenn -13.5 (-110) 2H, 2 units...WIN +2
ND -14.5 (-110), 4 units
LSU -17 (-110), 4 units
Georgia ML (+170), 2 units
-----------------------------------------

Today: 3-2 +3.85

Overall: 5-5-2, +3.88

[laxdjock]

I called in Alabama -6 (-110), 2 units.

Too bad MD decided to not show up tonight, blah.

[laxdjock]

Navy +22.5, 2 units......WIN +2
PSU -7 (-125) 1Q, 2 units......WIN +2
Kentucky -16.5 (-110).....WIN +1
Kentucky -3.5 (-105)......LOSS -1.05
Minnesota -7 (-105), 2 unit......LOSS -2.10
Missouri +7 (-115), 2 units.....WIN +2
BYU +23 (-110), 2 unit......WIN +2
Tenn -13.5 (-110) 2H, 2 units...WIN +2
ND -14.5 (-110), 4 units.......WIN +2
Georgia ML (+170), 2 units......LOSS -2
UMD +20.5 (-110), 2 units......LOSS -2
LSU -17 (-110), 4 units......LOSS -4.4
LSU -17.5 (-110), 2 units (added via phone)......LOSS -2.2
Alabama -6 (-110), 2 units (added via phone).......WIN +2

-----------------------------------------

Overall: 10-9-2, +2.56

[laxdjock]

Stupid LSU. I should try not to piss away my winnings.

[laxdjock]

Ole Miss -10 (-115) 1H, 2 units
Ole Miss -18 (-110), 2 units

[laxdjock]

Ole Miss -10 (-115) 1H, 2 units.....PUSH
Ole Miss -18 (-110), 2 units.....WIN +2
Ole Miss -7.5 (-105), 2 units.....WIN +2
CU -11.5 (-110), 2 units......
CU -3 (-105) 1Q, 2 units.....LOSS -1.05
Col St -6.5 (-125), 4 units (live betting)
Col St +7.5 (-130) 2H, 2 units
------------------------------------------
Today: 2-1, +2.95 units

[hova24e]

You make a lot of plays laxdjock................................ ...

[laxdjock]

You make a lot of plays laxdjock................................ ...

Yeah, too many in the 1st week!

I'm definitely going to cut down on them, particularly when I go up in $$.

[laxdjock]

CSU running back gets run down at the 3 yd line, and then CSU takes 3 knees. ARGG!!!! I got middled and screwed.

[laxdjock]

This week I am going to be much more prudent about my picks.

BYU -17.5 (-110), 4 units jumped out at me, as I think it will get to 19-20 by kickoff. Tulane put up some yards against Tulsa, but they will face a much better defense in BYU.

[laxdjock]

UC ML +175, 2 units

[laxdjock]

USC -6.5 (-115), 4 units

[Cougar Bait]

GL this week laxdjock...good job getting that USC line early. I doubt it lasts.

[laxdjock]

Thanks CB.

I need to bounce back from a rough start. I bet WAY too much in Week 1, though at the time they seemed like good bets. I'm aiming for 5-6 picks, with a few 2H depending on the game.

[laxdjock]

UC +3 (-125), 2 units
(forgot to post here)

[laxdjock]

FSU -5.5 (-120), 2 units
FSU -5.5 & u47.5 (+250), 2 units