College Football Picks – Week 16

BigdaddyQH · 12-17-20, 01:31 PM

The problem I have with your pick is this. Ohio State plays BEFORE the Clemson-Irish game. If Ohio State wins a very close game and both Notre Dame and Texas A&M win big, Ohio State may get dropped to 4th in the poll to avoid another 'Bama-A&M rematch in the playoffs Semi's. I think Ohio State will try to score as many points as they can.

LT Profits · 12-17-20, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The problem I have with your pick is this. Ohio State plays BEFORE the Clemson-Irish game. If Ohio State wins a very close game and both Notre Dame and Texas A&M win big, Ohio State may get dropped to 4th in the poll to avoid another 'Bama-A&M rematch in the playoffs Semi's. I think Ohio State will try to score as many points as they can.

Well technically, teams should try and score as many points as they can every game.

I totally get what you are saying but I have this closer to Ohio State -17 so I could not pass it up.

BigdaddyQH · 12-17-20, 04:39 PM

Maybe a good wager. The thing that most people forget is this. During a normal season teams would have had 26 days to prepare for their Playoff Bowl Game. Injuries can heel during that time. This year they only have 12 days. Any type of moderate injury or worse means that the player will be out of the playoff game. Needless to say, any type of Covid-19 contact is disasterous.

RM Logic · 12-18-20, 10:32 AM

I hope if you played NW you got it early at 20.5/21. Once Olave is ruled out for OSU the line will fall probably in the 17 range.

unde0087 · 12-18-20, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Maybe a good wager. The thing that most people forget is this. During a normal season teams would have had 26 days to prepare for their Playoff Bowl Game. Injuries can heel during that time. This year they only have 12 days. Any type of moderate injury or worse means that the player will be out of the playoff game. Needless to say, any type of Covid-19 contact is disasterous.

During a normal season OSU would have already played 10+ games. They don't need more days off because they haven't played even a half of a schedule this season.

Pick'nParlays · 12-18-20, 09:49 PM

I am so glad we are not friend. I do not know you to answer the question. I just make great money fading. BOL!

pavyracer · 12-18-20, 11:27 PM

Why does the margin of victory matter on who gets in the Playoff? The teams don't play the same opponents.

stackz125 · 12-19-20, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Why does the margin of victory matter on who gets in the Playoff? The teams don't play the same opponents.

Its eye test

62-20 looks better than 27-20

jjgold · 12-19-20, 06:41 AM

Very solid year !

LT Profits · 12-19-20, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

I am so glad we are not friend. I do not know you to answer the question. I just make great money fading. BOL!

If you have been fading, you have done the opposite if making great money.

LT Profits · 12-19-20, 10:37 AM

1 College Football Pick Addition

SATURDAY, 12/19
Northwestern +20.5 -108 (Heritage)
Illinois +16 -108 (Heritage)

Zlaniner · 12-19-20, 10:39 AM

WagerType:PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
Dec 19	CFB [211] MINNESOTA +11½-110
Dec 19	CFB [230] OHIO STATE -18-111
Dec 19	CFB [239] ALABAMA -17-110
Dec 19	CFB [241] TOTAL o57½-110 (BOISE STATE vrs SAN JOSE STATE)
Risking 25 SBR To Win 248.76 SBR Ticket#: 4610242

jjgold · 12-19-20, 10:52 AM

LT making up for basketball debacle but plenty of time to recover

RM Logic · 12-19-20, 10:59 AM

OSU line keeps moving moving down now that Olave has officially been ruled out. Its at 17.5 right now. Those that got NW at +21 might want to middle this bet if it falls to -17.

LT Profits · 12-19-20, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by RM Logic

OSU line keeps moving moving down now that Olave has officially been ruled out. Its at 17.5 right now. Those that got NW at +21 might want to middle this bet if it falls to -17.

No, it is better to let a +EV position ride than middle with an opposite position that is not +EV. The exception would obviously be if line moves so much that opposite side becomes +EV. I don't have that here as I had OSU around -17 to begin with.

RavensFan2k3 · 12-19-20, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No, it is better to let a +EV position ride than middle with an opposite position that is not +EV. The exception would obviously be if line moves so much that opposite side becomes +EV. I don't have that here as I had OSU around -17 to begin with.

That’s what I had aswell. How much deviation from your model do you typically look for to constitute a play?