Lines Out at Vegas Insider

SoonerBS · 08-08-09, 08:04 PM

-- Last year South Carolina was a -14 favorite in this game at their place, this year they are a +3.5 underdog. That is a +17.5 point turnaround. I still think NCST is the right side, but I don't want to play them unless they are under the 3 . . . .

-- I really like North Texas +16. I think Ball State will take a step back this season and North Texas will take a half of a step forward . . .

-- I really like Navy +22, too. Navy is good in the dog roll and I was thinking the breaking point on this bet was +14. This line is +8 more than I expected.

-- I like Minnesota -6. I think getting under a TD in this game is a gift. Hell, I think getting under 10 in this game is a gift.

-- I like Michigan -11. I think this is a very doable line in this game. I'm not big on playing the MAC outside their own conference in any game.

-- It's not a popular bet with a lot of people, but I really like georgia getting +4.5 on the road against OSU.

-- Hold off on Notre Dame -17 because I think that line will get better before game time.

-- I like Illinois -5 right now, but I want to look into that game some more.

-- I like Baylor straight up against Wake Forest so the points are a gift.

-- -32 sounds like a lot of points to play on with USC, but they are really good as home favorites.

-- UAB could very well win that game SU against Rice. I'll be looking deeper into that game.

-- I like Oklahoma -21 for now, but if that goes up, I may not like it any longer.

-- I'll be watching for info on Army and Eastern Michigan in Fall Camp. Army beat Eastern Michigan last season and I think they could be better this year. I don't like it that this is the first game because it gives Eastern Michigan more time to work on the triple option offense that Army will be throwing against them. It may not matter though. Right now, I lean Army +6 in this game.

-- I think Auburn thumps La Tech at home. I also think this line could get better in Auburn's favor because there are some who actually believe a WAC team could hang with a good SEC team. This will be a different team than last year's Auburn bunch and they will not be as easy to push around defensively as Mississippi State was for Lat Tech.

-- Nebraska -20 is the only "play on" game I have listed this season. I think they put away FAU fairly easily, but then the rest of the season the lines get tighter for Nebraska.

-- -38 is proof that Vegas plans to get tougher with Texas lines this season. I'll be thinking about taking ULM in this spot, especially if it goes higher. Likely I will not play it all though.

-- I like Alabama -4. I think the polish has worn off of Alabama with the public after their bowl loss to Utah, but I can guarantee you this team will be competing for the SEC crown. In my comparisons, the best of the SEC can beat the best of the ACC. Lay the 4.

-- Don't fall asleep on the Idaho/New Mexico St. game, guys. It may look like a shit game, but New Mexico State is breaking in a new QB and they only return 10 starters off a bad team. Idaho is not great, but they bring back more experience, they beat New Mexico St last year, they lead in this series 11-4 over last 15 years, and they are catching points in this game. Don't just look at the marquis games without giving some thought to the lesser noticed jewels.

-- I like UTEP -4.5 as well, but I want to see how Buffalo comes along in Fall camp.

-- California in anything under -21 is a definite play . . . .

-- Central Michigan doesn't have a good enough defense to test Arizona's new starting QB, Scott. I'll be playing on Arizona in this game. CMU is not good playing out of conference, I don't care how much experience they bring back.

-- I'll take me some Colorado -13 as well.

soonerfan · 08-08-09, 08:17 PM

I agree with you on Georgia. I see them exposing OSU's defensive line. OSU's offense should be great but I see Georgia running the ball all day controlling the clock and keeping them off the field. I really like Minnesota and Nebraska. OU at -21 scares me until I see how their O line can hold up.

SoonerBS · 08-08-09, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by soonerfan

I agree with you on Georgia. I see them exposing OSU's defensive line. OSU's offense should be great but I see Georgia running the ball all day controlling the clock and keeping them off the field. I really like Minnesota and Nebraska. OU at -21 scares me until I see how their O line can hold up.

I have the same apprehensions. I can also see this line getting out of control a bit by game time.

MartinBlank · 08-08-09, 09:25 PM

Sooner, you have a link for those lines?

Thanks!

SoonerBS · 08-08-09, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

Sooner, you have a link for those lines?

Thanks!

A guy posted it on my site. I have left a post requesting the link. The lines do look about right though, but I haven't found the link googling it yet . . . .

pdx107 · 08-08-09, 09:36 PM

Nevada at +17 against ND, i like, especially if it goes higher

SoonerBS · 08-08-09, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by pdx107

Nevada at +17 against ND, i like, especially if it goes higher

Right now I think this game is on the borderline of playable games. If it goes lower, it is an automatic play on Notre Dame for me. If it goes higher, I may not play it at all.

Notre Dame is going to be a lot, lot better this year and Nevada's defense sucks. This will be the most intimidating venue that Nevada has EVER played in.

pdx107 · 08-08-09, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by SoonerBS

Right now I think this game is on the borderline of playable games. If it goes lower, it is an automatic play on Notre Dame for me. If it goes higher, I may not play it at all.

Notre Dame is going to be a lot, lot better this year and Nevada's defense sucks. This will be the most intimidating venue that Nevada has EVER played in.

Ummmmm Missouri?

soonerfan · 08-08-09, 10:20 PM

SoonerBS What's your opinion on Tulane +14 at home against Tulsa. I follow Tulsa very close and with all of their losses on offense and a defense that's not very good I don't see them covering on the road. What do you think?

SoonerBS · 08-08-09, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by soonerfan

SoonerBS What's your opinion on Tulane +14 at home against Tulsa. I follow Tulsa very close and with all of their losses on offense and a defense that's not very good I don't see them covering on the road. What do you think?

I'm going to be spending some time on the non-BCS teams and conferences this week. I'll let you know more about what I think on this game later.

SoonerBS · 08-08-09, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by pdx107

Ummmmm Missouri?

I'm leaning to Illinois here, but I haven't made up my mind yet.

gremlin · 08-09-09, 01:18 AM

I agree North Texas will be better and Ball St won't be as good, but North Texas @ Ball State -16 seems like a probably BS cover to me. North Texas lost their top 2 wideouts, and it's not like they were overflowing with offensive power last year anyway. They only kept three games within 16 last year, and Ball St blew out all the garbage teams they played.

Of course, Ball St has a new QB and new head coach this year(formerly their offensive coordinator and QB coach), but the teams just seem to be at different levels, even if they are getting closer.

Beyond that, NC State, Minnesota, and Georgia look good(among others), but I'm not sure Baylor can take WF. Riley Skinner is a decent QB, Wake is just inconsistent. I think they are 4.5 points better than Baylor for sure though, even if they are rebuilding their defense.

Intuitive_Edge · 08-09-09, 01:45 AM

Tenn laying 28

SoonerBS · 08-09-09, 01:24 PM

"

pdx107 · 08-09-09, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by SoonerBS

I'm leaning to Illinois here, but I haven't made up my mind yet.

noo I meant Nevada playing at Missouri last year

also, the Idaho game does look interesting indeed

SoonerBS · 08-09-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by pdx107

noo I meant Nevada playing at Missouri last year

also, the Idaho game does look interesting indeed

Yes, that's a good example . . .

pdx107 · 08-09-09, 02:13 PM

of course we all know that nevada got shelled like hell in Missouri, ugh

ZBOIZ · 08-09-09, 02:39 PM

These are a few leans for me

Memphis +17
Nevada +17
Illinois -5
LSU -14

MartinBlank · 08-09-09, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

These are a few leans for me

Memphis +17
Nevada +17
Illinois -5
LSU -14

WHOA...Z picking LSU! No WAYYYYY!

Yeah, didn't see that one coming.

ZBOIZ · 08-10-09, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

WHOA...Z picking LSU! No WAYYYYY!

Yeah, didn't see that one coming.

You probably will be the main one on LSU...

But seriously I think LSU blow this one out the water. Do your history with LSU and out of conference games. And this team will not be that better than last year. They might be more physical under this new coach but I dont think they will make big changes up there just yet.

ImmaBammer12 · 08-10-09, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

You probably will be the main one on LSU...

But seriously I think LSU blow this one out the water. Do your history with LSU and out of conference games. And this team will not be that better than last year. They might be more physical under this new coach but I dont think they will make big changes up there just yet.

Yeah, this is like money in the bank if you ask me. I mean short of LSU just coming all apart in this season opener how can you not hand 14 points at least on a team that never won a single game last season. I mean I can see how they could improve that much.

Also, I'll let you know about Bama's opener with Va Tech. I like Bama in this one but again it's Frank Beamer so you can't overlook what he's done with past Va Tech teams. We have lots of truly untested people like McElroy at QB. The O line is very suspect as well.

Lastly, NO line on Florida and Charleston Southern. Geez, I mean the actually put a line on Texas so why not Florida?!?!

Go Beavers · 08-10-09, 10:20 PM

Anyone else like Penn St. ?? Also liked Troy til the line moved all the way to -6

MartinBlank · 08-11-09, 04:46 PM

I still like Troy at -6.

The ND/Nevada line moved. USA Today has it at 13 now.

pdx107 · 08-11-09, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

I still like Troy at -6.

The ND/Nevada line moved. USA Today has it at 13 now.

Do not like that, I was hoping it would stay high

roadwarrior1 · 08-12-09, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

You probably will be the main one on LSU...

But seriously I think LSU blow this one out the water. Do your history with LSU and out of conference games. And this team will not be that better than last year. They might be more physical under this new coach but I dont think they will make big changes up there just yet.

Yea...Im a homer like ZBOIZ but he's right. That BS about Jake Locker being the "Tebow of the Northwest" is funny stuff. We should make a mess of this group.

arthurkirkland · 08-13-09, 10:39 PM

illinois now -7... i would have been in big at -5, not as confident now.

LSU up to 16.5...