army-navy UNDER - "hit me baby, one more time"

[gojetsgomoxies]

i see a couple of books at 42 O/U.

do we do under again?... i think so, but i do think this year feels different than recent years.

https://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=season+%3E+2000+and++team+%3D+NAVY+and+o%3Ateam+%3D+ARMY++and+season&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2019
1	0-0-1 (0.00, 0.0%)	7.0	0-1-0 (-11.50, 0.0%)	38.5	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	season = 2018
1	0-1-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	-2.0	0-1-0 (-16.50, 0.0%)	43.5	0-1-0 (-1.00, 0.0%)	season = 2017
1	0-1-0 (-8.50, 0.0%)	-4.5	0-1-0 (-9.50, 0.0%)	47.5	0-1-0 (-4.00, 0.0%)	season = 2016
1	0-1-0 (-17.50, 0.0%)	-21.5	0-1-0 (-12.50, 0.0%)	50.5	1-0-0 (4.00, 100.0%)	season = 2015
1	0-1-0 (-8.00, 0.0%)	-15.0	0-1-0 (-29.00, 0.0%)	56.0	1-0-0 (7.00, 100.0%)	season = 2014
1	1-0-0 (13.00, 100.0%)	-14.0	0-1-0 (-11.00, 0.0%)	52.0	1-0-0 (27.00, 100.0%)	season = 2013
1	0-1-0 (-2.50, 0.0%)	-6.5	0-1-0 (-25.50, 0.0%)	55.5	1-0-0 (4.00, 100.0%)	season = 2012
1	0-1-0 (-1.00, 0.0%)	-7.0	0-1-0 (-7.50, 0.0%)	55.5	1-0-0 (6.00, 100.0%)	season = 2011
1	1-0-0 (6.50, 100.0%)	-7.5	0-1-0 (-5.00, 0.0%)	53.0	1-0-0 (14.00, 100.0%)	season = 2010
1	0-1-0 (-1.50, 0.0%)	-15.5	0-1-0 (-21.50, 0.0%)	41.5	1-0-0 (14.00, 100.0%)	season = 2009
1	1-0-0 (23.00, 100.0%)	-11.0	0-1-0 (-9.00, 0.0%)	43.0	1-0-0 (34.00, 100.0%)	season = 2008
1	1-0-0 (21.00, 100.0%)	-14.0	0-1-0 (-23.50, 0.0%)	64.5	1-0-0 (35.00, 100.0%)	season = 2007
1	0-1-0 (-7.50, 0.0%)	-19.5	0-1-0 (-9.00, 0.0%)	49.0	1-0-0 (12.00, 100.0%)	season = 2006
1	1-0-0 (13.50, 100.0%)	-5.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (19.00, 100.0%)	season = 2005
1	1-0-0 (16.00, 100.0%)	-13.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (29.00, 100.0%)	season = 2004
1	1-0-0 (6.50, 100.0%)	-21.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (28.00, 100.0%)	season = 2003
1	1-0-0 (43.00, 100.0%)	-3.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (46.00, 100.0%)	season = 2002
1	0-1-0 (-7.50, 0.0%)	1.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-1-0 (-9.00, 0.0%)	season = 2001

[gojetsgomoxies]

it's arguable that since (and including) 2006, this game hasn't come close to OVER.

the O/U history only goes back to 2006........ but i do see that the games before that year often were high scoring.

more work to do on this, but the UNDER has been GOLD for so long........ FYI, it went off at 38 or 38.5 O/U last year

[gojetsgomoxies]

a few more insights... probably "elevator analysis"

navy won every game in this series from 2001 to 2015. army won 2016 to 2018...... games have been close since (incl.) 2011. not close before that.

on an ATS basis, from 2007 to 2013, favorite was 6-1.... 2014-2018 underdog 4-0-1 (i.e. one push.. last year)

wondering if army will be able to hold navy offense..... pretty sure navy will keep army moving slowly, so that end of UNDER is fine i think

[gojetsgomoxies]

i see sagarin power ratings have navy anywhere from 15 to 25 point favorite. 25 points on recent form.

he has the game in the high 50's............. but he DOES NOT model the actual game as to possessions. basically two teams that work the clock with long drives

[thetrinity]

Yeah this typically goes under also weather could be dicey

[BigdaddyQH]

I do not see how the weather can affect the UNDER wagering. If you were talking about playing the OVER, I would understand. I have hit every Total in this game for the past 11 years and I sure as hell am not going to change now. Sure I may lose, but if you bet against the streak every year for 7 or 8 years, you would be broke, much less any longer. But look how many of you ARE broke. Besides, the majority of you do not pay for the air you wager.