I play a ton of win totals. I do a lot of research myself in terms of returning production, 2nd order win total, and schedule evaluation and also listen and read a lot of what is put out there by the so called smart minds of the sport. So here are my favorites broken down by conference i will try not to go into too much depth just a short piece on teams.
ACC prediction - its Clemsons conference and everyone knows it. they should go undefeated but with a win total of 11.5 juiced to the over and a outrageous price to win the conference and an absurd -550 to make the playoff i will stay away from them all together.
Florida state over 7.5 wins is my favorite win total in this conference and my biggest play.- a lot of uncertainty with this team but they have plenty of talent. The fact that they were so bad last year is what provided us with some value this year. They have a few sure wins on the schedule and most of the rest games are plenty winnable outside of @clemson. I think Willie Taggert and this team finds its way to 8 wins. But week one will vs Boise will play a huge part on determining how the seminoles season goes.
Other ACC win totals
NC State Under 7.5 Wins
Syracuse Under 7.5 Wins
North Carolina Under 5.5 Wins
BIG 12 Prediction - This is Oklahomas conference to lose. I have seen tons of smart people playing the Oklahoma Sooner win total under. but i wouldn't suggest it. I actually like this team to get to the college football playoff. I think people are way too low on Jalen Hurts. The kid is a winner going to a winning program with a winning coach. They get a good schedule to start with and should cruise to 5-0 before taking on Texas. By that time Hurts and the offense should be acclimated and I would say look out. Im on the over 10.5 and also took a piece of +250 to make the playoff.
Texas Under 9.5 wins. I am much lower on this team than most and its mainly because of the schedule. They have LSU, Oklahoma and then go on the road to @TCU, @Baylor, @Iowa St. The line has since dropped to 9 and i would still take it under 9 as I see a push at the very worst. I think this team more of an 8 win team.
Other Big 12 Win totals:
TCU Under 7.5 Wins - Starting October 5th this teams schedule goes - @iowa st, @KSU, vs Texas, @OK State, vs Baylor, @ Texas Tech, @Oklahoma. A brutal stretch - if Gary Patterson gets this team to 8 wins. Hats off to him take my money.
Kansas Under 3 Wins - i took a juiced -130. Les Miles i don't care. This team likely starts 2-0 i don't care. If Les finds 2 upsets in the Big 12 gauntlet then ill eat grass in honor of him instead of steak for a few months. This one pushes at worst in my opinion.
BIG 10 prediction
The east likely comes down to the final game of the season Ohio State @ Michigan. And because its at Michigan i will pick Michigan. But i'm not taking any part of Michigan over 10 wins. @wisconsin, @penn St, vs ND, vs Sparty, vs Ohio St. No thanks - if Michigan drops just two of those you can't win so therefore stay away in my opinion.
Nebraska Under 8.5 at + money is a favorite of mine. People are giving them automatic wins at minnesota, at purdue, and at maryland. I think they have a chance to lose each of those. And have losses penciled in vs Ohio st and Wisconsin. Ill take my chances that this team wins 8 games instead of 9 at a solid price tag.
Penn St Under 8.5 wins. This is a favorite of mine. Team is very talented but i don't trust the decision making of James Franklin. and also a brutal stretch of @iowa, Michigan, @Mich St, @ Minnesota, and the @ ohio st later in the year. That kind of schedule just doesn't say 9 wins to me.
Wisconsin screams over 8.5 to me and the + money is a bonus. 9 very winnable games and chances to upset @Ohio St or home vs Michigan. Wisconsin always sliding under that Ohio St/Michigan shadow.
Other Big 10 win totals
Minnesota over 7.5 wins
Maryland Over 4 Wins
Rutgers Under 3 Wins Even Money (another favorite) that pushes at the very worst in my opinion
Pac 12 . Yes, Im with every other person in America that thinks Utah wins the Pac-12. <strong>I also got down a lot of money on Utah +125 to win the Pac-12 South which is my favorite Utah bet. </strong>I just don't see who beats them in the south.
Other favorites:
Oregon St Under 2.5 (+125) My favorite win total of the Pac-12. This team has one sure win in Cal Poly. If they find 2 other upsets then take my hard earned money.
Arizona St Over 6.5 its juiced a little depending on where you look but i love this play. Lost some NFL talent in Manny Wilkins and Nkeal Harry but based on my research this team should be sneaky good. I think this team cruises to 7 or 8 wins. Just take my word for it on this one. I wouldn't even mind a dabble on them to win the Pac-12. Might seem crazy now but mid season i think we find ourselves with a chance.
Washington Huskies under 9.5 Look i love Chris Petersen he is tremendous. But this team lost a ton. And i think Petersen a public darling is getting a little too much love. @BYU, @ Stanford, Utah, Oregon, Wazzu are all games the huskies could trip up. Ill take my shot with the under and if he gets to 10. Well i would be very impressed even by Petersen.
Finally the SEC How about this prediction. Georgia vs LSU in the SEC title game.. SEC is loaded this year. I actually like a shot on the LSU Tigers to win it all but thats more of a gut feel that things break right. But the schedule is too brutal by my math to throw any money at a Over 9 thats juiced. instead i will look away from the big boys in terms of win totals for the SEC.
I was at the bar last night and someone said Miss St has no chance they lost Nick Fitzgerald. What QB was he watching? A team that should start 4-0 or 5-1 would then only have to win 2 of 3 from Arkansas, Ole Miss, and alcorn st. Thats assuming they lose to A&M, LSU, and Bama which im not convinced either. Miss St over 7.5 wins my favorite play in this conference.
The other is Arkansas under 5.5 wins. it just seems too high. they have 4 for sure wins. but they would have to have 2 upsets of the following. Ole Miss, A&M, UK, auburn, bama, miss st, LSU, mizzou. sure they might get one of them but i don't see 2 upsets.
Another favorite is Kentucky Wildcats over 6.5 .Yes they lost some household NFL names and shouldnt be as good as last year. but the schedule says over to me. Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin, Arkansas, Louisville all sure wins. thats 5 right there. Vandy, Tennessee, Mizzou, @South Carolina, vs Florida. I think they can get 2 of those 5. Over 6.5 for sure
My last one is Mizzou over 8. This team sliding under the radar in the SEC in my opinion. a win total of 8 for a team that could realistically start 7-0. Yes please.
The non power conferences
BYU Over 6.5. THIS IS MY ABSOLUTE FAVORITE WIN TOTAL OF THE YEAR. This team could lose the first 4 games they play and still get over 6.5. Then again they could win the first 4 games of the year too. I am overly bullish on this team. the season needs to start so i stop adding to this win total.<
Recap for you people that don't want to be bored with my commentary.
BYU Over 6.5 wins (+100) 5u
Florida State Over wins 7.5 1.5u
NC State Under 7.5 Wins 1u
Syracuse Under 7.5 Wins 1u
North Carolina Under 5.5 Wins 1u
Texas Under 9.5 wins 2u
TCU Under 7.5 Wins 1.5u
Kansas Under 3 Wins 1u
Nebraska Under 8.5 2u
Penn St Under 8.5 wins 1u
Wisconsin screams over 8.5 2u
Minnesota over 7.5 wins 1u
Maryland Over 4 Wins 1u
Rutgers Under 3 Wins 1.5u
Oregon St Under 2.5 2u
Arizona St Over 6.5 2u
Washington Huskies under 9.5 2u
Miss St over 7.5 wins 2u
Arkansas under 5.5 wins 2u
Kentucky Wildcats over 6.5 2u
Mizzou over 8 wins 2u
Oklahoma Over 10.5 1u
Good luck all as i will post all my plays here starting tomorrow night!
ACC prediction - its Clemsons conference and everyone knows it. they should go undefeated but with a win total of 11.5 juiced to the over and a outrageous price to win the conference and an absurd -550 to make the playoff i will stay away from them all together.
Florida state over 7.5 wins is my favorite win total in this conference and my biggest play.- a lot of uncertainty with this team but they have plenty of talent. The fact that they were so bad last year is what provided us with some value this year. They have a few sure wins on the schedule and most of the rest games are plenty winnable outside of @clemson. I think Willie Taggert and this team finds its way to 8 wins. But week one will vs Boise will play a huge part on determining how the seminoles season goes.
Other ACC win totals
NC State Under 7.5 Wins
Syracuse Under 7.5 Wins
North Carolina Under 5.5 Wins
BIG 12 Prediction - This is Oklahomas conference to lose. I have seen tons of smart people playing the Oklahoma Sooner win total under. but i wouldn't suggest it. I actually like this team to get to the college football playoff. I think people are way too low on Jalen Hurts. The kid is a winner going to a winning program with a winning coach. They get a good schedule to start with and should cruise to 5-0 before taking on Texas. By that time Hurts and the offense should be acclimated and I would say look out. Im on the over 10.5 and also took a piece of +250 to make the playoff.
Texas Under 9.5 wins. I am much lower on this team than most and its mainly because of the schedule. They have LSU, Oklahoma and then go on the road to @TCU, @Baylor, @Iowa St. The line has since dropped to 9 and i would still take it under 9 as I see a push at the very worst. I think this team more of an 8 win team.
Other Big 12 Win totals:
TCU Under 7.5 Wins - Starting October 5th this teams schedule goes - @iowa st, @KSU, vs Texas, @OK State, vs Baylor, @ Texas Tech, @Oklahoma. A brutal stretch - if Gary Patterson gets this team to 8 wins. Hats off to him take my money.
Kansas Under 3 Wins - i took a juiced -130. Les Miles i don't care. This team likely starts 2-0 i don't care. If Les finds 2 upsets in the Big 12 gauntlet then ill eat grass in honor of him instead of steak for a few months. This one pushes at worst in my opinion.
BIG 10 prediction
The east likely comes down to the final game of the season Ohio State @ Michigan. And because its at Michigan i will pick Michigan. But i'm not taking any part of Michigan over 10 wins. @wisconsin, @penn St, vs ND, vs Sparty, vs Ohio St. No thanks - if Michigan drops just two of those you can't win so therefore stay away in my opinion.
Nebraska Under 8.5 at + money is a favorite of mine. People are giving them automatic wins at minnesota, at purdue, and at maryland. I think they have a chance to lose each of those. And have losses penciled in vs Ohio st and Wisconsin. Ill take my chances that this team wins 8 games instead of 9 at a solid price tag.
Penn St Under 8.5 wins. This is a favorite of mine. Team is very talented but i don't trust the decision making of James Franklin. and also a brutal stretch of @iowa, Michigan, @Mich St, @ Minnesota, and the @ ohio st later in the year. That kind of schedule just doesn't say 9 wins to me.
Wisconsin screams over 8.5 to me and the + money is a bonus. 9 very winnable games and chances to upset @Ohio St or home vs Michigan. Wisconsin always sliding under that Ohio St/Michigan shadow.
Other Big 10 win totals
Minnesota over 7.5 wins
Maryland Over 4 Wins
Rutgers Under 3 Wins Even Money (another favorite) that pushes at the very worst in my opinion
Pac 12 . Yes, Im with every other person in America that thinks Utah wins the Pac-12. <strong>I also got down a lot of money on Utah +125 to win the Pac-12 South which is my favorite Utah bet. </strong>I just don't see who beats them in the south.
Other favorites:
Oregon St Under 2.5 (+125) My favorite win total of the Pac-12. This team has one sure win in Cal Poly. If they find 2 other upsets then take my hard earned money.
Arizona St Over 6.5 its juiced a little depending on where you look but i love this play. Lost some NFL talent in Manny Wilkins and Nkeal Harry but based on my research this team should be sneaky good. I think this team cruises to 7 or 8 wins. Just take my word for it on this one. I wouldn't even mind a dabble on them to win the Pac-12. Might seem crazy now but mid season i think we find ourselves with a chance.
Washington Huskies under 9.5 Look i love Chris Petersen he is tremendous. But this team lost a ton. And i think Petersen a public darling is getting a little too much love. @BYU, @ Stanford, Utah, Oregon, Wazzu are all games the huskies could trip up. Ill take my shot with the under and if he gets to 10. Well i would be very impressed even by Petersen.
Finally the SEC How about this prediction. Georgia vs LSU in the SEC title game.. SEC is loaded this year. I actually like a shot on the LSU Tigers to win it all but thats more of a gut feel that things break right. But the schedule is too brutal by my math to throw any money at a Over 9 thats juiced. instead i will look away from the big boys in terms of win totals for the SEC.
I was at the bar last night and someone said Miss St has no chance they lost Nick Fitzgerald. What QB was he watching? A team that should start 4-0 or 5-1 would then only have to win 2 of 3 from Arkansas, Ole Miss, and alcorn st. Thats assuming they lose to A&M, LSU, and Bama which im not convinced either. Miss St over 7.5 wins my favorite play in this conference.
The other is Arkansas under 5.5 wins. it just seems too high. they have 4 for sure wins. but they would have to have 2 upsets of the following. Ole Miss, A&M, UK, auburn, bama, miss st, LSU, mizzou. sure they might get one of them but i don't see 2 upsets.
Another favorite is Kentucky Wildcats over 6.5 .Yes they lost some household NFL names and shouldnt be as good as last year. but the schedule says over to me. Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin, Arkansas, Louisville all sure wins. thats 5 right there. Vandy, Tennessee, Mizzou, @South Carolina, vs Florida. I think they can get 2 of those 5. Over 6.5 for sure
My last one is Mizzou over 8. This team sliding under the radar in the SEC in my opinion. a win total of 8 for a team that could realistically start 7-0. Yes please.
The non power conferences
BYU Over 6.5. THIS IS MY ABSOLUTE FAVORITE WIN TOTAL OF THE YEAR. This team could lose the first 4 games they play and still get over 6.5. Then again they could win the first 4 games of the year too. I am overly bullish on this team. the season needs to start so i stop adding to this win total.<
Recap for you people that don't want to be bored with my commentary.
BYU Over 6.5 wins (+100) 5u
Florida State Over wins 7.5 1.5u
NC State Under 7.5 Wins 1u
Syracuse Under 7.5 Wins 1u
North Carolina Under 5.5 Wins 1u
Texas Under 9.5 wins 2u
TCU Under 7.5 Wins 1.5u
Kansas Under 3 Wins 1u
Nebraska Under 8.5 2u
Penn St Under 8.5 wins 1u
Wisconsin screams over 8.5 2u
Minnesota over 7.5 wins 1u
Maryland Over 4 Wins 1u
Rutgers Under 3 Wins 1.5u
Oregon St Under 2.5 2u
Arizona St Over 6.5 2u
Washington Huskies under 9.5 2u
Miss St over 7.5 wins 2u
Arkansas under 5.5 wins 2u
Kentucky Wildcats over 6.5 2u
Mizzou over 8 wins 2u
Oklahoma Over 10.5 1u
Good luck all as i will post all my plays here starting tomorrow night!
