First 2019 College GOY Lines

leetreaper · 03-24-19, 11:39 AM

BigdaddyQH · 03-24-19, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by leetreaper

I'm glad to see that one of the biggest losers in here responded. Bet On Line has taken the OU-Texas game off the board for obvious reasons.

bettingman6 · 03-25-19, 12:14 PM

FSU is favored by 4.5 vs Boise State? Seriously? Do people not realize how awful of a coach Willy Taggart is?

I hope the line stays that way for months. I'm not going to bet on that game now and forfeit money for months, but I'm definitely taking it if that's still the line in late August.

bettingman6 · 03-25-19, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

For those who have been asking, here are the first 2019 College Football GOY lines out. This should give you some idea of what the lines will be like as more GOY's are posted.

Saturday, August 31st
Florida State -4.5 vs Boise State
Auburn -3 vs Oregon
South Carolina -7 vs North Carolina

Saturday, September 7th
LSU -7 at Texas
Clemson -21 vs Texas A&M
USC -4 vs Stanford

Saturday, September 14th
Oklahoma -11.5 at UCLA
Michigan State -4.5 vs. Arizona State
Stanford -2.5 at UCF

Saturday, September 21st
Florida -14.5 vs. Tennessee
Georgia -11.5 vs Notre Dame
Texas A&M -3.5 vs Auburn
Michigan -6 at Wisconsin

Saturday, September 28th
Ohio State -7.5 at Nebraska
Washington -7.5 vs USC

Saturday, October 12th
Notre Dame -11.5 vs USC
LSU -3.5 vs Florida
Alabama -13 at Texas A&M
Oklahoma -17 vs Texas

Saturday, October 19th
Washington -6.5 vs Oregon
Michigan -6.5 at Penn State

Saturday, October 26th
Oregon -4.5 vs Washington State
LSU -7.5 vs Auburn
TCU -2.5 vs Texas
Michigan -8.5 vs Notre Dame
Ohio State -9 vs Wisconsin

Saturday, November 2nd
Georgia -4 vs Florida
Washington -3 vs Utah
USC -1.5 vs Oregon
Florida State -1.5 vs Miami

Saturday, November 9th
Alabama -17 vs LSU
Wisconsin -5.5 vs Iowa

Saturday, November 16th
Georgia -9 at Auburn
Michigan -14.5 vs Michigan State

Saturday, November 23rd
USC -6 vs UCLA
Georgia -15.5 vs Texas A&M
Oklahoma -21 vs TCU
Ohio State -10.5 vs Penn State

Friday, November 29th
Texas -3 vs Texas Tech
Washington -7 vs Washington State
Memphis -11.5 vs Cincinnati

Saturday, November 30th
Michigan -6.5 vs Ohio State
Alabama -14 at Auburn

Saturday, December 7th
Army -10 vs Navy

Now is the time when the people, like myself, who make money year after year by wagering on College Football, start working on their picks. Since 95% of you guys are losers (if you are honest about it), most of you will think it is too early, and lose your tails this year, like you did last season. Any odds stick out to you? Lines are from Bet On Line AG.

Actually I beat the vig in CFB last year, which was my first year betting. It was only about 150 bets, though, so it's far from a guarantee I'd actually win in CFB betting over the course of say a decade.

bettingman6 · 03-25-19, 12:21 PM

Why do they create lines for anything except the first week?

You'd have to be a doofus to bet on late November games in the preseason.

First of all, it's money you'd lose for months. Second of all, you shouldn't just ignore 10 weeks of game results when you bet on those games.

BigdaddyQH · 03-26-19, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by bettingman6

Why do they create lines for anything except the first week?

You'd have to be a doofus to bet on late November games in the preseason.

First of all, it's money you'd lose for months. Second of all, you shouldn't just ignore 10 weeks of game results when you bet on those games.

Actually, this is the biggest money winner for people like myself, who win on a consistent basis. Here is what players like yourself do not understand. First, just how much interest are you going to make in a bank between now and September 1? Unless you have a lot of money to invest, it will be much less than 1%, which is nothing. Now let's take this example of how to make big money into consideration. I will use the Oct 19th game between Michigan and Penn State. The game is at Penn State and they certainly have a very good chance of going into that game undefeated. Their only tough game is the week before at Iowa. Michigan must host the Army, Iowa. and go to Wisconsin before the game at Penn State. They also have a road game, all be it an easy one, at Illinois the week before the Penn State game. There is no way the line will be Michigan -6 1/2 before game time. At best, you may get Penn State and 3 points, but the line will be closer to a pick, or Penn State -1 to 3 points than anything else. So by investing early, I have a good shot at a middle here, which pays at 20 to 1, something that you cannot make at a bank. The most you can lose is some vig, plus tip change on the interest you would lose at a bank.

The games I am looking at are these: Oregon +3 vs Auburn (neutral site), Texas +7 vs LSU, Michigan State -4 1/2 vs Arizona State, and Penn State +6 1/2 vs Michigan. There will be others later on.

bettingman6 · 03-31-19, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Actually, this is the biggest money winner for people like myself, who win on a consistent basis. Here is what players like yourself do not understand. First, just how much interest are you going to make in a bank between now and September 1? Unless you have a lot of money to invest, it will be much less than 1%, which is nothing. Now let's take this example of how to make big money into consideration. I will use the Oct 19th game between Michigan and Penn State. The game is at Penn State and they certainly have a very good chance of going into that game undefeated. Their only tough game is the week before at Iowa. Michigan must host the Army, Iowa. and go to Wisconsin before the game at Penn State. They also have a road game, all be it an easy one, at Illinois the week before the Penn State game. There is no way the line will be Michigan -6 1/2 before game time. At best, you may get Penn State and 3 points, but the line will be closer to a pick, or Penn State -1 to 3 points than anything else. So by investing early, I have a good shot at a middle here, which pays at 20 to 1, something that you cannot make at a bank. The most you can lose is some vig, plus tip change on the interest you would lose at a bank.

The games I am looking at are these: Oregon +3 vs Auburn (neutral site), Texas +7 vs LSU, Michigan State -4 1/2 vs Arizona State, and Penn State +6 1/2 vs Michigan. There will be others later on.

What if PSU ends up being worse than expected or Michigan ends up being betting than expected by the time the game is played? Then you'll probably regret your bet.

Your preseason rankings will be the your least accurate set of rankings, regardless of how good your system is.

leetreaper · 03-31-19, 02:29 PM

I love this clown threads

gojetsgomoxies · 03-31-19, 07:34 PM

you definitely want to be on as many longer future events as you can. the spreads can be completely wrong, and if you have some predictive abililty this favours you.

if you have zero predictive ability (not negative ability either), then it's random as to whether the spread will get better or worse.

i like the thinking on michigan psu game.

i think clemson is giving too many points to TAM. for the non-conf games, it would be nice to know where they are.

also, i will always like stanford vs. USC.

BigdaddyQH · 04-01-19, 12:02 PM

Bettingman6. If you are going to play the "what if" game you have no business wagering. Period. You do not have what it takes to risk so much as a penny without having second thoughts and you will never succeed overall with that attitude. You think like Joe Pub thinks, and Joe Pub is a loser.

Gomox. Being a graduate of USC, I made a simple rule when I first started wagering serious money on football. No wagers, for or against, USC. This way I do not bet with my heart, which is an easy way to become a big loser. Just look at all the homers in here and you will see 100% losers. Homers are losers. This way I avoid the temptation. Gun to head, I would also take Stanford over USC. USC has a new President, which means that she will be looking to appoint her own team. That is very bad news for Helton and Swan, both of whom should not be in their current positions to begin with.

BigDofBA · 04-11-19, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Bettingman6. If you are going to play the "what if" game you have no business wagering. Period. You do not have what it takes to risk so much as a penny without having second thoughts and you will never succeed overall with that attitude. You think like Joe Pub thinks, and Joe Pub is a loser.

Gomox. Being a graduate of USC, I made a simple rule when I first started wagering serious money on football. No wagers, for or against, USC. This way I do not bet with my heart, which is an easy way to become a big loser. Just look at all the homers in here and you will see 100% losers. Homers are losers. This way I avoid the temptation. Gun to head, I would also take Stanford over USC. USC has a new President, which means that she will be looking to appoint her own team. That is very bad news for Helton and Swan, both of whom should not be in their current positions to begin with.

USC sucks now so I wouldn’t bet on them either.

You’re 100% right about betting on your favorite team.

My rule the last few years is that if I wager on a game one of my teams is involved in, I only bet on the other side.

I’ve made a lot of money betting on OKC’s opponents to cover the last few years. I actually seem to do better at that than anything. In post-season, I usually just stay away so I can enjoy the game.

When you follow the team you can almost get a feel for when they will take nights off or if they’re slumping. They’ll get up for Houston and GSW and then screw off and lose to the Bulls. It happens all the time.

BigdaddyQH · 04-12-19, 11:20 AM

Hoops is different. They play way too many games to anyone to expect a team to remain constantly up. College Football is much different. One loss can eliminate you from National Championship contention. Two losses does eliminate you. Seeing as there are way too many Bowl Games, the difference between 2 losses and 6 losses is really negligible. Sometimes you get a better Bowl Game by losing a regular season game.