probably just make this my own stream of consciousness blog.
was reading some great stuff (i will link to it later) showing that the most important returning starters are QB, receivers and DB's. that's exactly what i found. the DB's were strong indicator and should still be.
QB is a bit more complicated. transfers are so common now. my statistical work was that transfer QB teams are poor ATS teams overall (always some good ones which keeps the bias alive.
another QB sitaution that i don't think works out that well is a mid-major team being set up with a stud senior QB - basically much better than the program. eastern michigan and wyoming come to immediate mind recently. i think expectations are too high and maybe team loses focus thinking things will be easier with stud QB.
fading teams losing franchise QB is usually good. that might seem contradictory to last point. but i think it's when the team did really well passing with the senior QB. and obviously passing programs are generally excluded.
NEW TOPIC - teams with players at NFL combines
lots of players - team may fall off alot (i don't mention very obvious teams like alabama)
bc
ncs
ok
wv
nd
stan
utah
wash
ky
miss
msp st
tam
very few players (not exactly bullish but at least they aren't losing key players)
nc
va
vt
louis
cf
kan st
oks
neb
az
ucla
was reading some great stuff (i will link to it later) showing that the most important returning starters are QB, receivers and DB's. that's exactly what i found. the DB's were strong indicator and should still be.
QB is a bit more complicated. transfers are so common now. my statistical work was that transfer QB teams are poor ATS teams overall (always some good ones which keeps the bias alive.
another QB sitaution that i don't think works out that well is a mid-major team being set up with a stud senior QB - basically much better than the program. eastern michigan and wyoming come to immediate mind recently. i think expectations are too high and maybe team loses focus thinking things will be easier with stud QB.
fading teams losing franchise QB is usually good. that might seem contradictory to last point. but i think it's when the team did really well passing with the senior QB. and obviously passing programs are generally excluded.
NEW TOPIC - teams with players at NFL combines
lots of players - team may fall off alot (i don't mention very obvious teams like alabama)
bc
ncs
ok
wv
nd
stan
utah
wash
ky
miss
msp st
tam
very few players (not exactly bullish but at least they aren't losing key players)
nc
va
vt
louis
cf
kan st
oks
neb
az
ucla