rushing systems, ATS and bowl games

[gojetsgomoxies]

i had mentioned before this bowl season that rushing based systems seemed to have worked really well in the past for ATS bowl games.

i didn't have the skills to backtest it easily on one of the sports data bases...

but i am tracking it for this bowl season, and it's been impressive so far, especially differentials (no adjustment for quality of opponent etc.)

system 1 - offensive YPC, better team 4-3

system 2 - defensive YPC, better team 3-3-1

system 3 - rushing ypc differential (O minus D).... 5-2 ATS

system 4 - fewest points allowed per game (obviously more passing D than rush D). 5-1-1

as mentioned in another thread, GSo/EM was a very close ATS game and it is a LOSS in these systems. fresno was pretty tight between the teams in terms of stats. and that's a WIN.

gonna try a couple of other things too............ like i said, has been a very popular system in the past.

[A.M.S.]

[gojetsgomoxies]

and here are the real time picks for the last 2 systems (ypc differential and total points allowed)

rush diff:

marshall
toledo
byu
memp
houston
troy
LT

defensive points allowed:

marshall
fau
byu
memphis
army
troy
LT

a couple of things, army and to lesser extent hawaii have special status. army being all running (good for bowl season), hawaii (mostly pass and good at it. bad for bowl season)

i see EM and GSo graded as push a bunch of places. not my experience but a push would improve that historical record so far.

[gojetsgomoxies]

this a big "back of envelope" on 2017 bowl teams

10 worst ATS teams (for its bowl game), defense gave up 28 points per game, best 10 ATS teams = 23 points per game...... not huge standard deviation (unfortunately doing this on small mobile device so can't do calc)

should note that when i say what they gave up per game i mean whole season (unfortunately including bowl game but should have had big effect)

[gojetsgomoxies]

so both of those systems with another W tonight.... 6-2 and 6-1-1 ATS

[Baby o]

So please explain on the games coming up so I could know how to understand this better if that's not asking too much.

[gojetsgomoxies]

system 3 = yards per rush offense minus defense....... whichever team is better... i will post example on the next game
system 4 = which team gave up fewer points per game this season (i round the numbers off). very very simple.

system 1 was offensive yards per carry. system 2 was defensive yards per carry..... i ditched them as #3 and #4 worked better (#1 and #2 were 50%ish)

so tomorrow,

wake forest vs. memphis... wake = 4.5 offensive ypc, 4.9 defensive. memphis = 6.6 and 4.1.. so differentials are minus 0.4 for WF, plus 2.5 for memphis...... so memphis = system 3 play. if i rated plays, it is strong play

system 4 - memphis gave up 31 points per game, WF 33 points. so memphis is system 4 play... (definitely people will say this should be adjusted for opponent....... i might go back and look at massey ratings defensive ratings)

[gojetsgomoxies]

so i think system 3 (rushing differential) = now 7-3 ATS (i've graded BYU game already)... system 4 = 8-1 ATS (there was a NO-PLAY for one of the games)

i will stress these systems are killing it this year ........ AND there's been tons of threads about these types of systems winning in past seasons.

[gojetsgomoxies]

today

rushing differential 0-2 ATS

fewer points allowed 1-1 ATS

[gojetsgomoxies]

8-4 rushing ypc differential (2-2 yesterday)

9-2-1 fewer points allowed (3-1 yesterday).

will post the upcoming games in a second

[gojetsgomoxies]

games up to (including) friday,

rushing ypc differential:

BC (very close vs. boise)
GT
Cal
Temple
miami/wisconsin no play
vandy
aub
wv (might exclude)
iowa state

fewer points allowed,

boise
minnesota (tight.... might exclude)
cal
temple
MF
vandy
aub
WV (might exclude)
iowa state

as i'd mentioned at very start, i would like to back big running teams (GT, military, G So) and fade big passing-oriented teams (wsu, wv are the 2 that come to mind)......... so i'll track it both ways, basic picks and then no playing anything goes against my own run/pass bias (teams will be listed before game. so G So still stands as they've already played)

[gojetsgomoxies]

should note that when i say what they gave up per game i mean whole season (unfortunately including bowl game but should have had big effect)

that was only true for the early games. and the differentials were large except for maybe one case. one extra game shouldn't make much difference. after all it's an average of 13 games vs. 12 games.

[gojetsgomoxies]

0-2 and 1-1 yesterday.

[gojetsgomoxies]

here are the rest of the games,

rushing yard per carry differential,

nevada
mich
south carolina
ok
clem
cin
pgh
msps
psu
ucf
wa
ga
no play mcs game
msr
ute
tam

fewer points allowed,

ark state
mich
va
ala
clem
cin
stan
msps
ky
lsu
wa
ga
ute
ncs
mcs
msr

[gojetsgomoxies]

games up to (including) friday,

rushing ypc differential:

BC (very close vs. boise)
GT L
Cal L
Temple L
miami/wisconsin no play
vandy L
aub W
wv (might exclude) L
iowa state

fewer points allowed,

boise P
minnesota (tight.... might exclude) W
cal L
temple L
MF W
vandy L
aub W
WV (might exclude) L
iowa state

as i'd mentioned at very start, i would like to back big running teams (GT, military, G So) and fade big passing-oriented teams (wsu, wv are the 2 that come to mind)......... so i'll track it both ways, basic picks and then no playing anything goes against my own run/pass bias (teams will be listed before game. so G So still stands as they've already played)

updating last few days.... 8-4 and 9-2-1 before this update.... so 1-5 and 2-4 in these updated games, iowa state pending

so 9-9 and 11-6-1.............

[gojetsgomoxies]

1-2 and 2-1 (i state and first 2 games today).... 10-11 and 13-7-1....

nev/arkst and clem/clem on-going...