Army-Navy: OVER hasn't come close to hitting in last 12 years

[gojetsgomoxies]

AND, i have no data before that, so it's not like 12 years is cherry-picking.. one year, it came within 5 points of hitting, but many other years it missed by 10+ points

Total has dropped the last 2 years, but i just recall games with almost no offense.... 43.5 total last year, still missed by 17...

don't feel as strongly, but underdog hit 5 of last 6 meetings....

i believe these trends hold, although less strongly, when these teams play air force

[Renegades]

Books finally wised up. They have been hanging totals in the 50’s for this game. They finally dropped it like a rock. 40 is about right. Service academy games vs each other go under at about a 75% clip

[Renegades]

Army is probably the slowest paced team in the country. Even when they dont score, they burn 6-7 mins

[Renegades]

Army defense is pretty stout as well. Hard to imagine navy scoring more than 14 pts

[gojetsgomoxies]

Renegades, good insight....

i'm really curious as to how Navy will do........ they have had a very disappointing season.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Renegades, i didn't save my work, but it seemed like with these service academies, the UNDER's do better when they are set low by the market

obviously a arbitrarily higher total on a single game is better chance of winning.......... but consistent with work i've done in the past, LOW totals go UNDER, HIGH totals go OVER

i sort of agree with the general point too that playing a 12+ year strong trend might be kinda late in the game..

one thing though is these teams BOTH run the ball, so clock runs alot and they move it down the field slowly anyway.

[Renegades]

Army could actually be a little more explosive but Munkin refuses to throw the ball. Army qb has a pretty good arm but they dont let him throw. If army is going to take the next step and be a team like navy was with keenan reynolds, they need to open up the offense a bit

[BigdaddyQH]

The Army offense is a clock eater. They held the ball for over 40 minutes against Oklahoma, and Navy is not Oklahoma. With the possibility of some lousy weather on toip of everything else, Under 41 does not look like a bad bet. Remember last year when the snow was so bad you could not see the Army uniforms?

[gojetsgomoxies]

alright, this is looking pretty good right now...

was a little nervous when it was 7-0 early

[gojetsgomoxies]

that was reasonably straight-forward. a little nervous early..

everyone mentions the running clock and hence far fewer plays than other game. i have it at 60%+ less than a high scoring passing game.

another thing mentioned today which i only thought of vaguely........ these teams D's are intimately familiar with their teams offensive schemes practicing with them every day. element of unfamiliarity against almost all other teams they play

last thing i'd mention is there are so few big plays... that's probably one of the biggest reasons NCAAF scores are generally so high... no big plays = eventually turn it over or have to punt.