NCAAF Week 6 with some observations

[L8night]

Hello SBR Players,

Record 2-1,

If you are reading this, you must be looking for winners this weekend, well, we really won't know if you found them here, until the games are final.

Last week I played Buffalo -7 against Army, felt pretty confident about it, only to see the Army bulldozer run rampant over the Bulls defense, what I learned out of this is, Army has had a pretty tough schedule so far and they are good. Looking at the remaining games IMO they all look very winnable. A team to follow.

On to what you are looking for:

As we are now into Week 6, at this time these are leans and I will post final decisions later in the week, so if you are interested what the final is, you will have to return. Please feel free to comment

Mid Tenn St @ Marshall, lean Mid Tenn, IMO, wrong team favored, might be a good ML play here.

Utah St @ BYU, lean Utah St, might also be a good ML Play, Utah St is no slouch as evidenced by BYU being a short 2 1/2 fave.

Maryland at Michigan, lean Maryland, Michigan has Wisky on deck

Nebraska at Wisky, lean Neb and the points, Wisky at Michigan on deck

Miami,Oh at Akron, lean Akron - 3 1/2, only there 4th game of the year and they beat Northwestern

E Carolina @ Temple, lean the over, offenses pretty good, both defenses can be scored on

that's it for now, still doing the eye test on a few more.

[BigdaddyQH]

You rely way too heavily on "look ahead" situations. What you should be relying on is the fact that one more loss for Michigan or Wisconsin eliminates them from any playoff possibilities. Both teams know this.

[L8night]

You rely way too heavily on "look ahead" situations. What you should be relying on is the fact that one more loss for Michigan or Wisconsin eliminates them from any playoff possibilities. Both teams know this.

Hey Bigdaddy, thanks for the reply, valid points

[L8night]

Let me explain a few things about me, I am "newbie" posting at SBR, I was a regular at Wagerline (don't ask me what my alter ego was there, because I will not say), before it became Covers, didn't like it there so I dropped off the grid and became a lurker, like the 350+ that viewed my thread last week,LOL, it's all good.

I have followed college football since the days of Pat Sullivan and Archie Manning, (yes Peyton and Eli's dad), I know I look at games differently than a lot of folks who post on here, Bigdaddy said that I rely heavily on look ahead situations and I realize the way I posted it,to him, I looked like a shoot from the hip player, newbie, understandable.

In college football every year is going to be different, unless you have the same team from last year, but there is usually a turnover due graduation or whatever reason and new pieces needed to be added to the puzzle and they always don't fit at first, so I look at team makeup starting about the 5th week of the season(should have a pretty good gauge).
When I first start looking at games, I look at what the linesmaker opens with then where the lines are 24 hours later, hence why I have a lean on Maryland and Nebraska, as Michigan and Wisconsin had line drops, but this in no way is going to be the only factor that I use, just the eye test, I will follow through the week while researching info.
I will let out more on how I look at games as time goes on, just so much I look at to post in one post.

I've had pretty good success over the years, I'm a small bettor, you will never hear me say this game is a "Lock" or "GOY", I just thought now that I'm retired and have time, I might be able to help someone, I will have games, that I was totally off, but I usually turn out a profit at the end of the year.

Back Later with a few more leans

[BigdaddyQH]

If you normally turn a small profit, that is all you can ask for. That puts you ahead of 85% of the players no matter what they may say. I have been doing this for years and have made a lot of money, but I still average about 57 1/2% per year. If you are a consistant winner (no matter how small the winning percentage may be) it becomes simple. If you wager the same amount on every wager (which is what "Sharps" do 99% of the time), then the more you wager, the more you win.

[saeker]

Week 6 Miami -12 Fla st

This is the easiest game by far to me an easy double down.
Miami by 35

[BigdaddyQH]

This is the easiest game by far to me an easy double down.
Miami by 35

Why? Miami is not real good. They have played nobody except LSU and lost that game.

[L8night]

If you normally turn a small profit, that is all you can ask for. That puts you ahead of 85% of the players no matter what they may say. I have been doing this for years and have made a lot of money, but I still average about 57 1/2% per year. If you are a consistant winner (no matter how small the winning percentage may be) it becomes simple. If you wager the same amount on every wager (which is what "Sharps" do 99% of the time), then the more you wager, the more you win.

I will play 50 a game with a 10 game limit, since so many games, if I get that warm fuzzy feeling on a game I will go 100 and make that 2 games of the 10, not that I play 10 games a week that is my limit as far as I will go win or lose, but money management is the key to success, learned that a long time ago, Thanks

[L8night]

This is the easiest game by far to me an easy double down.
Miami by 35

Hey saeker,

Thanks for dropping in, I don't usually do rivalry games, back in the early 90"s this would have been a marquee game, in this game you have a lot of players, who played against each other in high school. as both schools recruit heavy in South Florida, so there will be a lot of emotion and that is one thing I can't take into consideration for a game, looking at the game on paper, Fla St O is not great and the Miami defense is playing well, question for you? ask yourself you feel that Miami should win by 35, why is the line only 12 1/2? do you think the linemaker made a mistake?, my personal line I have Miami winning by 17 and they may blow FSU out, by the 35, just to many things that can happen in rivalry games, that I have learned the hard way, if you play it good luck.

[L8night]

A few more leans:

Syracuse -4 1/2 at Pitt, Pitt pass defense doesn't appear to be very good and Syracuse can come at you with the run or pass, one concern Syracuse lack of focus, after big game last week at Clemson, I feel Syracuse will put the game away in the 2nd half.

Wyoming at Hawaii -3 1/2, Wyoming does not seem to do to well against passing teams, Hawaii loves to throw, also looking at the over 55.

[L8night]

!st play this week

Hawaii -3 vs Wyoming, said I would play this if it hit 3, line drop from 4, Wyoming offense has shown me nothing this year, whereas Hawaii has showed me that they have a pretty good offense, defense is shaky to say the least, this could turn into a track meet, but not sure how Wyoming will want to approach the game, but they have been burned by passing teams.

[saeker]

Hey saeker,

Thanks for dropping in, I don't usually do rivalry games, back in the early 90"s this would have been a marquee game, in this game you have a lot of players, who played against each other in high school. as both schools recruit heavy in South Florida, so there will be a lot of emotion and that is one thing I can't take into consideration for a game, looking at the game on paper, Fla St O is not great and the Miami defense is playing well, question for you? ask yourself you feel that Miami should win by 35, why is the line only 12 1/2? do you think the linemaker made a mistake?, my personal line I have Miami winning by 17 and they may blow FSU out, by the 35, just to many things that can happen in rivalry games, that I have learned the hard way, if you play it good luck.

Yes i know and i usually try to steer clear of rivalry games. OU/TEX i wont touch with a 10ft pole. OU should kill them but it never seems to end up that way. I base the miami decision as to what i have seen from Fla. St so far and the fact that this year when miami is favored by 12 or more at home, they are golden. We will see

[L8night]

Yes i know and i usually try to steer clear of rivalry games. OU/TEX i wont touch with a 10ft pole. OU should kill them but it never seems to end up that way. I base the miami decision as to what i have seen from Fla. St so far and the fact that this year when miami is favored by 12 or more at home, they are golden. We will see

hey, saeker,
I can say that I have not seen this Fla St team play live, but on paper they look a little disfunctional, this is Willie Taggert's 1st year and there is always growing pains, I have Miami winning by 17, but I'm laying off and in no way am I trying to talk you out of the play, you seem very confident, it's just not a game for me.GL

[L8night]

Just saw the injury report for Syracuse and it looks pretty extensive, guess that Clemson game took its toll, the line is dropping, so I will take a pass on that game, still wouldn't play Pitt, as they do not look good.

another game I am looking at, is Akron see above leans, line has been low at 3 1/2, but it just went to 5 1/2 today, maybe somebody is seeing what I am

[L8night]

2nd play,

Alabama-35 vs Arkansas, crazy huh, I talked with an Alabama Alum who I have known for a very long time, last night and when we discussed this game, I said 35 are you crazy, he said that Saban is going to turn the Tide loose this weekend and in his opinion we will see a 55-7, type game, over time he has given me some good info on Bama and looking at the game on paper I have no reason to doubt him, I am not trying to talk you into this play, win or lose, I'm in.

[agendaman]

love calif at -2 vs ariz.

[L8night]

love calif at -2 vs ariz.

Hey agendaman thanks for dropping by,

You could be on to something as the line opened with Ariz the fave and now has gone Caly way, the way I see it is if Cal runs the ball, they should win this game, Ariz has a big injury list, another factor in your favor, but Tate is now upgraded to probable, I feel this line is going to go back to a pick'em by gametime, I never have good luck with late PAC 12 games, the only team I feel confident with this year in the conference is Washington, I believe they will make the playoffs,GL if you play it.

[L8night]

I am passing on the 2 leans for tonight, see opening leans,

Marshall has dropped to -4, I wouldn't take that when offered at 6 1/2 hoping line would go to 7 or higher, Marshall QB is ??, hence the line drop, one of things I was looking at, this is what the Marshall coach said;
" QB Alex Thompson is getting close (to 100 percent healthy). We are going to play the best players we can possibly play who gives us the best chance to win. If Alex gets to the point that we feel that way, then he will be the first one to run out there on Friday or we will sub him in and play him. He is getting close".
Linemaker making this a close game now, No Thanks

Utah St, liked it when it opened, but line has stayed stable, BYU still the fave, big game for state and IMHO they have the team that can beat BYU. I've seen other posters, that like the play and can't fault them if they play it, but will pass this game.

Sorry, if you came into the thread looking for action tonight, I ain't got nothing for ya.

Still looking at few more for tomorrow....

[ELNATURAL]

I thought you like middle tenn tonight .. said wrong team favoured

[L8night]

I thought you like middle tenn tonight .. said wrong team favoured

Hey ELNATURAL,

good question, In my leans I did say in my opinion I believed the wrong team favored and I apoligize, if I made you think I was playing it.
I have done research during the week and my opinion has changed and I will give you my reasons, the Marshall coach (Doc Holliday, love the name), started practice on Sunday after the WKU game on Saturday, because of the short week, Coach Holliday has made Mid Tenn QB Stockstill a focal point,at these practices, stop him and you win, it's also "Military Appreciation Night" at the game, so a lot of emotion.
MTS could win this game, but with what I have read Marshall is coming into his game focused.

If this game was on a neutral field and I was getting 6 points, I would probably play MTS and the ML because IMO MTS is the better team.Hope this helps

GL with your plays this weekend

[L8night]

Well, here we are, it's Saturday, game day.

Have you ever over thought something??, well if you have read through this thread, I started with giving my leans in the 1st post on Monday, the leans are games that first catch my attention, now if you read down, you will see my explanation for a yea or ney on the leans, well as my research progressed through the week, my opinion changed (see post 18), for the first 2 games, my 1st instincts were right and I would have had a 4-0 night,, is there such a thing as too much information???

On the Post 1 leans:

Maryland at Michigan, no play for me, Michigan good defense , offense leaves a little to be desired, line at 17 1/2 down from open 18, I see a 28-10 type game.

Nebraska at Wisconsin, no play for me , line has dropped from 21 1/2 to 17 , 17 is what I have Wisky winning by, I see a 34-17 type game.

Miami, Ohio at Akron, no play for me , line opened 4 1/2 went to 3 1/2 and is now up to 6, I like Akron, but crazy line movements have me leary, shades of last night, I see a crazy MAC game 33-26, total is 48 1/2, hmmm......

E Carolina at Temple over, no play for me, as the total has gone down

So this means, I am not playing any of the leans, we'll see if I need to hit my head against the brick wall after the games are over

[L8night]

1 more game I am playing today:

East Carolina +10 1/2 @ Temple, Should be a good game, see the pirates keeping this close.

Final plays for today:

Hawaii -3 vs Wyoming
Alabama -35 vs Arkansas
East Carolina +10 1/2 vs Temple

I wish everyone good luck today and have fun