Quant's 2018 College Football

[A Quant]

I am not the best, but I think I'm pretty damn good at this. It's a f'ing gambling board, if people can't take ball busting this is not the hobby for them. You hate my picks-works for me. Have at it.

How I do this. I create and manage my own set of numbers, if a game deviates from the Vegas line more than 4.5 points, that is a game I play. Some weeks I will have 9 games, others just 4-5. I don't bet for the action, I bet to earn money.

My bankroll to being college football is 12K. A unit is 200 bucks.

Good luck to each and every single person here.

WEEK ONE

All ATS games going off at -110. Wagering 2.2/2.

Money line games are for 1 unit each (200).

Arizona -11.5
Notre Dame Money line -103
Florida International +10.5
Northwestern Money line +145
Texas -11.5
San Diego State +14.5
Wake Forest -6.5
Syracuse -6

[survive]

Good luck man! I enjoy reading your insights

[A Quant]

Good luck man! I enjoy reading your insights

Thanks man, you too! Good luck this season!

[thedude404]

I already took Northwestern. Unfortunately, and you are not going to believe this, the online app for a Vegas sportsbook I use does not offer ML bets on college football, so I had to take NW +1 1/2 (I read your post about small spreads and ML's).

I was looking at the W Mich/Syracuse game. At first I was going to take W Mich, but then after doing more research it seems maybe that line has more to do with Syracuse's performance last year w/o their QB and just generally how bad Syracuse usually sucks. That line is down to -5 now. So now I'm thinking about going with Syracuse. Any thoughts specifically on that game?

[A Quant]

I already took Northwestern. Unfortunately, and you are not going to believe this, the online app for a Vegas sportsbook I use does not offer ML bets on college football, so I had to take NW +1 1/2 (I read your post about small spreads and ML's).

I was looking at the W Mich/Syracuse game. At first I was going to take W Mich, but then after doing more research it seems maybe that line has more to do with Syracuse's performance last year w/o their QB and just generally how bad Syracuse usually sucks. That line is down to -5 now. So now I'm thinking about going with Syracuse. Any thoughts specifically on that game?

You nailed it right there.

Eric Dungey returns, and when he's healthy, he is a very good college QB. Look what he did against Clemson last year-- 20-32, 278, and he ran for another 60 yards. Against LSU, he threw for another 265. And against Florida State, he threw for 278 and ran for 109.

As he goes, so goes Syracuse. But Dungey wears down, and is a different player at the end of the year.

Nonetheless, he is a 3 year starter. He has played well against good defenses.

WMU is not a good defense. This is the second year for Tim Daoust to be the DC. He plays more zone than when PJ Fleck coached them 2 years ago. WMU is a bottom 60ish defense, they lost 3 of their starting DL, and all 3 starting linebackers. They have some depth in the secondary, but if you can't generate any pass rush on Dungey, they're done.

My numbers give Syracuse a 58% win probability. But this is why numbers are just a starting point to handicapping. I think Syracuse wins this game by 14. Dungey is talented enough to take over, and will be tough for a young, thin front seven making their first start.

Good luck!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Quant, good luck. I think CollFB can be a good bet for guys who do the leg-work.

[A Quant]

WEEK ONE
All ATS games going off at -110. Wagering 2.2/2.
Money line games are for 1 unit each (200).
Arizona -11.5 LOSS -220
Notre Dame Money line -103 WIN +200
Florida International +10.5 WIN +200
Northwestern Money line +145 WIN +290
Texas -11.5 LOSS -220
San Diego State +14.5 LOSS -220
Wake Forest -6.5 LOSS -220
Syracuse -6 WIN +200

Winning weekend. Thanks to Northwestern's ML win.

4-4 +10. $10 bucks won better than $1 lost.

I love this weekend's card.

[BayArea888]

Good job! It’s a long grind so any non-negative week is a positive week in my book.

[A Quant]

I love the card this week boys. I am betting 4 ML dogs. Great value in Arizona, Fresno State, Buffalo, and Cal.

Good luck this weekend!


WEEK TWO

All ATS games going off at -110. Wagering 2.2/2.

Money line games are for 1 unit each (200).

Buffalo ML +170 200/340
Fresno State ML +110 200/220
Miami, Oh ML -105 210/200
Arizona ML +155 200/310
Army -8 220/200
Georgia Tech -3 220/200
California ML +130 200/260

EDITED: I listed wrong #. Fixed.

[A Quant]

WEEK TWO
All ATS games going off at -110. Wagering 2.2/2.
Money line games are for 1 unit each (200).
Buffalo ML +170 200/340 WIN +340
Fresno State ML +110 200/220 LOSS -200
Miami, Oh ML -105 210/200 LOSS -210
Arizona ML +155 200/310 LOSS -200
Army -8 220/200 WIN +200
Georgia Tech -3 220/200 LOSS -220
California ML +130 200/260 WIN +260

I went 3-5, but only lost 80 bucks thanks to hitting 2 dogs on the ML (Buffalo and Cal).

I always evaluate losses, and one thing is obvious. My power numbers for Arizona are f'd. Arizona is a bad football team.

I am confident in my numbers, eventually the worm will turn. I love the dogs again this weekend.

Here goes:

WEEK THREE

Note. I love South Florida. This is my highest rated play so far this year, which is why I added another .5 unit.

Ohio U ML +147 200/294
USC ML +145 200/290
Eastern Michigan ML +140 200/280
Kansas -3 206/200
Notre Dame -13.5 220/200
USF -10 330/300
Tulane -3.5 220/200Florida State -3 220/200

Good to luck to everyone.

[gojetsgomoxies]

don't we too hard on yourself on arizona.......... i didn't see one person predict them to be even mediocre. in fact, i think many people on here had them as a favorite ATS team... i don't think it was remotely foreseeable that they'd be this bad so far.

[A Quant]

don't we too hard on yourself on arizona.......... i didn't see one person predict them to be even mediocre. in fact, i think many people on here had them as a favorite ATS team... i don't think it was remotely foreseeable that they'd be this bad so far.

Good points. I really thought Tate would be able to score for them. He's been "KevinSumlined"

[gojetsgomoxies]

apparently huge OL problems (read that right before season started)..... i personally think that players who came out of nowhere to have huge seasons (tate, bryce love etc.) often have big letdowns the next season. so much pressure in the off-season.

of course, i never foresaw anything remotely like how bad they've been

[A Quant]

WEEK THREE
Ohio U ML +147 200/294 LOSS
USC ML +145 200/290 LOSS
Eastern Michigan ML +140 200/280 LOSS
Kansas -3 206/200 WIN
Notre Dame -13.5 220/200 LOSS
USF -10 330/300 LOSS
Tulane -3.5 220/200 LOSS
Florida State -3 220/200 LOSS

Good to luck to everyone.

I really can't cry about bad beats because I am getting my ass turned out. My losses are bad losses, not even close. And, honestly, it is just poor handicapping on my part. I always go back and review lost wagers, and now that we are 25% into the season, I am not going to make too many radical adjustments to my numbers just yet. I have not had a losing year in a minute.

Also, I am only playing games where my PS#s give me an advantage over the line. No more nuances. This is simply my model making the selections this week.

Iowa ML +135 200/270
Vanderbilt ML +120 200/240
Minnesota ML +120 200/240
Purdue +7 220/200
Buffalo -5.5 220/200
Stanford -2 220/200
Northern Illinois +11.5 220/200
Pittsburgh -3 330/300
Notre Dame -7 330/300

Good luck to all you guys.

[Louisvillekid1]

Good luck man

keep grinding

[A Quant]

Good luck man

keep grinding

Thanks Kid! You too!

[A Quant]

Iowa ML +135 200/270 LOSS
Vanderbilt ML +120 200/240 LOSS
Minnesota ML +120 200/240 LOSS
Purdue +7 220/200 WIN
Buffalo -5.5 220/200 WIN
Stanford -2 220/200 WIN
Northern Illinois +11.5 220/200 LOSS
Pittsburgh -3 330/300 LOSS
Notre Dame -7 330/300 WIN

Not going to push, or force anything. Staying the course, going to grind this back into the positive.

Three games my numbers love--- Washington State, LSU and Arkansas State. Throwing a Unit/Half at them.

Washington State ML +105 3/3.15
Temple +13 2.2/2
LSU -9.5 3.3/3
Arkansas State -3.5 3.3/3
Ohio State -3.5 2.2/2
Toledo +10 2.2/2
Duke -4 2.2/2
Michigan -14 2.2/2

Good luck to every one of you guys.

[Hman]

GL today Quant

[A Quant]

gl today quant

ty h!

[Getch13]

BOL today Q

[A Quant]

BOL today Q

Thanks Getch, you tou!

Cash those tickets.

[ddittie]

Whats the bankroll at now?

[A Quant]

Whats the bankroll at now?

I am getting my head kicked in. Let me rephrase that. I am getting my f'ing head kicked in.

I'll update after today. Today is re-evaluate weekend. I either win and stay the course, or I reduce # of games played and try and grind it back.

[A Quant]

Washington State ML +105 3/3.15 WIN
Temple +13 2.2/2 WIN
LSU -9.5 3.3/3 WIN
Arkansas State -3.5 3.3/3 LOSS
Ohio State -3.5 2.2/2 LOSS
Toledo +10 2.2/2 LOSS
Duke -4 2.2/2 LOSS
Michigan -14 2.2/2 LOSS

So, trying to find any positives at this point. I went 2-1 on 1.5 units plays, which suggests I may have to trim my board to just my very best plays, but the rest was an aborted mess.

Here goes.

NC State -5.4 3.3/3
Illinois -5 3.3/3
Iowa -7 3.3/3
LSU -2 2.2/2
Eastern Michigan 2.2/2
Colorado 2.5 2.2/2
New Mexico +10 2.2/2
Auburn -3.5 2.2/2

Hope you guys are winning.

[Hman]

GL today Quant

[A Quant]

NC State -5.5 3.3/3 LOSS
Illinois -5 3.3/3 WIN
Iowa -7 3.3/3 WIN
LSU -2 2.2/2 LOSS
Eastern Michigan +3.5 2.2/2 WIN
Colorado 2.5 2.2/2 WIN
New Mexico +10 2.2/2 WIN
Auburn -3.5 2.2/2 LOSS
Hope you guys are winning.

Got things moving finally. Went 5-3, won $430.
My highest rated plays are winning, and I am too stubborn to shorten my card because I am convinced the worm turns.

After this week, I will take a long look at what has worked, what hasn't and get a current-view-of-the-program update.

This week:

Northwestern -4 3.3/3
Iowa -5.5 3.3/3
Miami, Florida -6.5 3.3/3
Troy -9.5 2.2/2
Virginia Tech -5.5 2.2/2
Colorado State -105 2.1/2
LSU +8 2.2/2
UCF -4.5 2.2/2
UCLA +7 2.2/2

Good luck everyone.

[1to1000]

21-28? For the year?

[A Quant]

21-28? For the year?

And -$1625

I got my ass kicked weeks 3-4.

[A Quant]

Northwestern -4 3.3/3 LOSS
Iowa -5.5 3.3/3 WIN
Miami, Florida -6.5 3.3/3 LOSS
Troy -9.5 2.2/2 LOSS
Virginia Tech -5.5 2.2/2 LOSS
Colorado State -105 2.1/2 WIN
LSU +8 2.2/2 WIN
UCF -4.5 2.2/2 LOSS
UCLA +7 2.2/2 WIN

Tale of the tape. One step forward, One step backward.

Lost $420 last week.

Here goes...

North Texas -1.5 3.3/3
Michigan -7 3.3/3
USC +6.5 3.3/3
NC State +17 2.2/2
Old Dominion +5 2.2/2
Eastern Michigan -3 2.2/2
Buffalo -1.5 2.2/2
LSU -6.5 2.2/2

Good luck you guys.

[A Quant]

North Texas -1.5 3.3/3 LOSS
Michigan -7 3.3/3 WIN
USC +6.5 3.3/3 LOSS
NC State +17 2.2/2 LOSS
Old Dominion +5 2.2/2 WIN
Eastern Michigan -3 2.2/2 WIN
Buffalo -1.5 2.2/2 WIN
LSU -6.5 2.2/2 WIN

Decent week. 5-3, +$220.

Still have not had the one killer weekend.

Here goes.

Boston College +150 3/4.5
Indiana -2 3.3/3
Army Pick 2.2/2
Washington State 3/3.75
Iowa +6.5 2.2/2
San Diego State -2.5 2.2/2
Northern Illinois +7 2.2/2
Coastal Carolina -3 3.45/3

Good luck everyone.

[A Quant]

Boston College +150 3/4.5 WIN
Indiana -2 3.3/3 LOSS
Army Pick 2.2/2 WIN
Washington State 3/3.75 WIN
Iowa +6.5 2.2/2 WIN
San Diego State -2.5 2.2/2 LOSS
Northern Illinois +7 2.2/2 WIN
Coastal Carolina -3 3.45/3 PUSH

Worm is turning.

Had a good weekend, 5-2-1, won $875. Last 2 weeks 10-5, +$1095.

[MasterPmasterP]

Good work A Quant

[A Quant]

Good work A Quant

Thanks buddy! GL this weekend!

[A Quant]

Here goes.

Going to punch into positive ground...

Syracuse -5.5 3.3/3
Boston College -2 3.3/3
West Virginia +110 2/2.2
Louisiana Tech +23.5 2.2/2
Kansas State +9.5 2.2/2
LSU +14.5 2.16/2
Rice +102 2/2.04

Good luck!

[A Quant]

Syracuse -5.5 3.3/3 WIN
Boston College -2 3.3/3 WIN
West Virginia +110 2/2.2 WIN
Louisiana Tech +23.5 2.2/2 LOSS
Kansas State +9.5 2.2/2 WIN
LSU +14.5 2.16/2 LOSS
Rice +102 2/2.04 LOSS

Another winning weekend, went 4-3, winning $384.

Short card this week, and all late.

Pitt -3 3.3/3
Temple +3.5 2.2/2
Georgia Tech -2.5 2.2/2
Auburn +13 2.2/2
Boston College +18 2.2/2
East Carolina +11 2.2/2

Good luck to everyone