Week 1 ncaaf discussion

navyblue81 · 08-28-18, 06:09 AM

Like ND a lot at home. Don’t think they’ll be as good on road this year, but will be dangerous on home turf with that speed. Also think OU giving way too many points. FAU should keep that within a couple TDS.

survive · 08-28-18, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by navyblue81

Like ND a lot at home. Don’t think they’ll be as good on road this year, but will be dangerous on home turf with that speed. Also think OU giving way too many points. FAU should keep that within a couple TDS.

Seems like a lot of people are on FAU but id agree that 21 feels high- I made it around 17. I dont have a good feel for UM/ND but lean under there.

Im looking at san diego state +14.5. Revenge spot for Stanford but the aztecs should be really solid this year and im not particularly high on the stanford defense

Ralphie Halves · 08-28-18, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by survive

Seems like a lot of people are on FAU but id agree that 21 feels high- I made it around 17. I dont have a good feel for UM/ND but lean under there.

Im looking at san diego state +14.5. Revenge spot for Stanford but the aztecs should be really solid this year and im not particularly high on the stanford defense

SDSU is the only dog I have this week. People have lost a lot of money underestimating Rocky Long and his ability to have his teams ready.

survive · 08-28-18, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

SDSU is the only dog I have this week. People have lost a lot of money underestimating Rocky Long and his ability to have his teams ready.

Yep, and the farm isnt exactly the toughest place to play. Locked in the +14.5. What else are you liking?

gojetsgomoxies · 08-28-18, 06:30 PM

i'm on the SDSU too..... i'd go so far as to say that line is wrong........... did defenses eventually slow down bryce love alot? (albeit from a 12 ypc average)?... how do players/teams do when a huge heisman candidate comes back. my sense is it often turns out to be a bit of a letdown i.e. expectations too high.

what about Auburn as small fave in atlanta vs. washington?... i am huskies fan but i think upper echelon SEC is miles ahead of top pac 12. both teams have veteran QB's....

some of the other pac 12 games look interesting. unlv and oregon state as huge UD's. sorry, unlv to USC. ucla as nice fave at home vs.cincy..... i lean unlv, cincy and ostate (at ohio state)

not pac 12.. but everyone seems to be on duke vs. army. generally i like army. esp if spread grows.

gojetsgomoxies · 08-28-18, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

SDSU is the only dog I have this week. People have lost a lot of money underestimating Rocky Long and his ability to have his teams ready.

agree totally

survive · 08-29-18, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i'm on the SDSU too..... i'd go so far as to say that line is wrong........... did defenses eventually slow down bryce love alot? (albeit from a 12 ypc average)?... how do players/teams do when a huge heisman candidate comes back. my sense is it often turns out to be a bit of a letdown i.e. expectations too high.

what about Auburn as small fave in atlanta vs. washington?... i am huskies fan but i think upper echelon SEC is miles ahead of top pac 12. both teams have veteran QB's....

some of the other pac 12 games look interesting. unlv and oregon state as huge UD's. sorry, unlv to USC. ucla as nice fave at home vs.cincy..... i lean unlv, cincy and ostate (at ohio state)

not pac 12.. but everyone seems to be on duke vs. army. generally i like army. esp if spread grows.

I’m wondering why the auburn washington line has gone down. I give auburn 1.5 points for the game being in Atlanta. Both defenses should be top 15, but im leaning auburn as well. Side note- If Auburn loses this game, their win total wont go over 9/9.5.

A Quant · 08-29-18, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by navyblue81

Like ND a lot at home. Don’t think they’ll be as good on road this year, but will be dangerous on home turf with that speed. Also think OU giving way too many points. FAU should keep that within a couple TDS.

I agree. Notre Dame is going to be a tough out for anyone. This will be one of their best front seven's they have had in recent memory. They also have the Julian Love kid at corner. They have some questions are safety, but they recruited the position really well.

Inside on the OL, they are great--Mustipher and Bars will be in the NFL.

The ND team you see play Michigan, may not be the same team come November. They'll grow, especially along the OL. If ND beats Michigan, they'll have a special season.

I got ND at -103, and played it.

Good luck to you guys.

thedude404 · 08-29-18, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by survive

I’m wondering why the auburn washington line has gone down. I give auburn 1.5 points for the game being in Atlanta. Both defenses should be top 15, but im leaning auburn as well. Side note- If Auburn loses this game, their win total wont go over 9/9.5.

I bet Washington because I believe that Auburn lost more in the personnel dept than did Washington. But you are right this is basically a home game for Auburn in a dome which has me somewhat concerned....but not enough where I would lay off Washington.

Ratpack · 08-29-18, 01:02 PM

like asu over utsa
wvu over tn
miami/lsu under
working on one more

Mike2332 · 08-29-18, 02:33 PM

I am on Oregon over Bowling Green -31...............Oregon has AVG over 60 PTS per games in their season opener over the last 5 years and I dont see that changing much this season vs that Bowling Green defense whose defense gave up on AVG 500+ YDS per game. And with the return of Oregon QB Justin Herbert this game could be 28-0 at the half.

gojetsgomoxies · 08-29-18, 06:21 PM

why has the arizona over BYU spread narrowed so much? and if memory is correct, it is big RLM............ makes me think it's actually news. and just to complete my earlier thought, i think the spread has gone from -15 to -11

gojetsgomoxies · 08-29-18, 06:22 PM

michigan-ND = UNDER? michigan will have an amazing defense and ND usually has a good one. new QB for michigan too

survive · 08-29-18, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

michigan-ND = UNDER? michigan will have an amazing defense and ND usually has a good one. new QB for michigan too

I feel like it’s a 24-21 type game but I don’t think I’ll bet it. As AQ pointed out ND has a loaded defense, while Michigan will have a top 5 defense.

Kind of intrigued by Louisville +24.5, anyone have a strong opinion on that game?

navyblue81 · 08-30-18, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by survive

I feel like it’s a 24-21 type game but I don’t think I’ll bet it. As AQ pointed out ND has a loaded defense, while Michigan will have a top 5 defense.

Kind of intrigued by Louisville +24.5, anyone have a strong opinion on that game?

I hate betting against Bama. Also hate betting on a team who is starting new QB. That definitely a stay away for me. Bama may ecplode or may come out slow. I just don’t know. First weeks are tough.

Bigshot711 · 08-30-18, 10:42 AM

First time poster long time lurker here. I am hammering the Texas Tech/Ole Miss Unders. I bet it at 68 a week ago now down to 67 at most places.

I don’t think this is going to be your typical TX Tech team this season. The new O coordinator is wanting to run the ball more(50/50) and an already improved defense will be that much better with 10 returning starters. The QB situation is iffy, and they don’t have a ton of weapons at WR like they have in the past. I expect this to be a slow moving(for Tech standards) 28-20 type game.

Rorro92 · 08-30-18, 12:28 PM

Take advantage of the overreaction with New Mexico State
Big tv game at the beginning of the season and New Mexico States gets blown by 22. As always, we see a big overreaction with the linemoving from -14.5 to -21.5 for the New Mexico vs Minnesota game. For the Aggies Romeros (QB) game should be better than on week one. On the other hand, the Golden Gophers ranked 117 last year in team plays per game; with that pace it’s hard to cover a 21 points spread. Hard to see pace going up with senior RB in Rodney Smith and a freshmen QB in Zack Annexstad.

Pick: New MexicoState Aggies +21.5

Rorro92 · 08-30-18, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Rorro92

Take advantage of the overreaction with New Mexico State
Big tv game at the beginning of the season and New Mexico States gets blown by 22. As always, we see a big overreaction with the linemoving from -14.5 to -21.5 for the New Mexico vs Minnesota game. For the Aggies Romeros (QB) game should be better than on week one. On the other hand, the Golden Gophers ranked 117 last year in team plays per game; with that pace it’s hard to cover a 21 points spread. Hard to see pace going up with senior RB in Rodney Smith and a freshmen QB in Zack Annexstad.

Pick: New MexicoState Aggies +21.5

+23.5 is available at Heritage

Ratpack · 08-30-18, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by Bigshot711

First time poster long time lurker here. I am hammering the Texas Tech/Ole Miss Unders. I bet it at 68 a week ago now down to 67 at most places.

I don’t think this is going to be your typical TX Tech team this season. The new O coordinator is wanting to run the ball more(50/50) and an already improved defense will be that much better with 10 returning starters. The QB situation is iffy, and they don’t have a ton of weapons at WR like they have in the past. I expect this to be a slow moving(for Tech standards) 28-20 type game.

But will they beable to stop ole miss who will have their senior qb and top wide out back if its i dont think tt will beable to hold ole miss to 28 and i definitely dont see ole miss holding tt to 20 could be a 35-30 but i see ole miss scoring at least 40

gojetsgomoxies · 08-30-18, 01:24 PM

i love the angles - either ATS or O/U - of teams simply playing differently (not better or worse) on offense than they have in the past.

i wasn't aware of TT but two other teams that come to mind are rice and illinois (i think they'll run the ball more and quite effectively)... i think for terrible teams - rice, illinois - this means they may eat up alot more clock time and i would think put the defense in much better positions. obviously rice was a big disappointment game 1.

no idea if this is partially new info/developments, but apparently arizona has HUGE issues with their offensive line right now. can't see that accounting for 4.5 points of spread movement and i would guess much of it was previously known

survive · 08-31-18, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Bigshot711

First time poster long time lurker here. I am hammering the Texas Tech/Ole Miss Unders. I bet it at 68 a week ago now down to 67 at most places.

I don’t think this is going to be your typical TX Tech team this season. The new O coordinator is wanting to run the ball more(50/50) and an already improved defense will be that much better with 10 returning starters. The QB situation is iffy, and they don’t have a ton of weapons at WR like they have in the past. I expect this to be a slow moving(for Tech standards) 28-20 type game.

I agree, although I definitely see them scoring more than 48 points. Im adding UNLV +26.5 to my card