Hawaii at Colorado State

[Waterstpub87]

Started looking at college football, this game really sticks out to me.

I have relatively similar numbers of strength between these two teams, mostly because Colorado State has very little returning production.

14 points seems way to high too.

Is there anything I am missing?

[gojetsgomoxies]

hawaii lost a ton of players including a bunch unexpectedly incl. QB, #2 receiver and best player in D backfield. they all transferred. so a team that i think took a step back last year from a mini-rebound the year before lost a whole bunch of players. hawaii will be really really bad.

FWIW, i think CSU is starting to be seen as a mid-major "program". very enthusiastic about carta-samuel (samuels?), transfer QB from washington.

[Waterstpub87]

Moxies,

Thanks for this. That makes alot of sense.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/1/31/16950222/2018-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience

From here:
Hawaii has 58% returning offensive production

https://philsteele.com/2018/07/08/complete-breakdown-of-every-cfb-teams-returning-starters/

From here:

only 4 returning offense players without a quarterback.

Makes more sense now.

[TheToffer]

Hawaii with a long road trip to start the season as well...

That may have something to do with the perceived inflated line.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i am curious about CSU and my own comment about it sort of becoming a perennially decent mid-major program. that's my feel/take but i'm not sure it's correct. i too did notice they have very few starters back.

[Waterstpub87]

i am curious about CSU and my own comment about it sort of becoming a perennially decent mid-major program. that's my feel/take but i'm not sure it's correct. i too did notice they have very few starters back.

When I ran the numbers, I had both Hawaii and Colorado against them in week 1. The Hawaii thing makes sense, but they were giving a significant number of points against colorado at home

[gojetsgomoxies]

i did some more digging. not sure i was right about CSU becoming a minor mid-major power.... i think it's much much more hard FADE on hawaii........ not sure if you remember a few years ago but hawaii had some real basic competitiveness issues (i.e. lack of size -----> couldn't stop anyone) but i read they have decent DL size these days which was their big problem when they were completely horrible.

[Snake Plissken]

It will be interesting to see how much Mike Bobo’s medical leave will affect Colorado State

[fudy213]

I like Carta-samuels and I like the direction CSU is going. Hawaii looks on paper like a shitshow. They never travel very well and going from sea-level to 5000 ft elevation on the first game is going to be tough. CSU might not be in line to be the next Boise St, but they arent bad and will be a tough out for the top teams like Boise. 14 pts seems like about right or maybe even under valued IMHO. The money line at -550 is definite parlay-able. I see a 40-14 type result. The ML will be on my card for sure, maybe the -14 also.

[Waterstpub87]

After adjusting my code, and adjusting Hawaii to a more realistic returning production figure, I end up with CS covering 53% of the time. Glad the responses set me in the right direction. Thanks everyone.