2009 Big 12 North Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Well, it's time once again, time for me to put together all the info on FBS teams and conferences that I have accumulated since the end of the 2008 season. As with all preseason prognostications, my views are as I see things right now and could change in the time we have between now and the first game depending on injuries, suspensions, transfers and etc. Last year these predictions were pretty successful and I hope for the same this season. Feel free to comment in this thread whether you agree with the opinions or not.

Colorado

Let me just say this to start -- the Big 12 North is a "toss up" between three teams: Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas. But, only jelly-spined girly men sit on the sidelines and don't pick a champion in the preseason. I'm picking Colorado to win the Big 12 North. I think Colorado has the best offensive line coming back, they have the experience at QB with Cody Hawkins and possibly an emerging talent with Tyler Hansen if he ever gets healthy, they have what I am calling the best RB tandem in the North in Scott and Stewart, and they may have the best linebacking corps as well. Their weaknesses are a receiving corps that is only mediocre at best, their defensive line is inexperienced. Their defensive backfield, though void of the 3 out of 4 starters from last season, should be fine if not better than last year's unit. On the Special teams, the transfer (not yet complete) of Josh Smith will hurt the return team, but I look for Hawkins to implement the speed of Scott and Stewart in this role and they should do well. Their punter is adequate, but the kicking game sucks. Last season, before the season even began, Colorado was expected to go to a bowl game with 6 wins or more type of a season, BUT injuries devastated this team early on.

I picked Colorado to win the Big 12 North based on two main reasons -- scheduling and Hawkins. Colorado's schedule is tough again this season with OC games against Colorado State (improved), at Toledo (improved), Wyoming (?) and at West Virginia (down a bit, but on the road). I think these tougher schedules, if they don't devastate Colorado again with injuries, should make this team better by conference time. The conference schedule is tough with games at Texas and at Oklahoma State, but the key is they get the toughest two teams in the North at home -- Nebraska and Kansas. Hawkins has always been a coach that tells it like it is for the most part. I have been intrigued all offseason by a quote he made after the season ended last year. In the quote, Hawkins proclaimed they would go 10-2 this season. This is unusual for a plain spoken coach to utter which leads me to believe that Hawkins knows some things about this team this year that all the usual sports critics do not. Looking at just the facts, the potential is there, now it is up to Hawk to provide the motivation.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Colorado State: Last season I picked this very same game and the line came out at -11. I took it and sweated out the offensive line injuries that evolved in Fall camp. After a back and forth tight first half, the Buffaloes put it away in the second half with a 38-17 win. This game this year marks the first game has been played in Boulder. The games have been played on a neutral field until now. CSU is coming off a 7-6 year from last season and should be just as successful as last season, but they will be starting a new QB and RB for this game. My prediction: Colorado 42 and CSU 21

September 19th versus Wyoming: Colorado is 23-2-1 in this series and the last game was played in 1997. Wyoming will be a bit improved this season with a lot of experience coming back, but they also will have a new coaching staff and new offensive and defensive schemes to learn. Wyoming's passing game is atrocious with bad QBs and receivers. Maybe they will be better this year, maybe they will not. It will not matter. Wyoming has this down as their first road game and it is sandwiched between a home game against Texas the week before and their first conference game against UNLV the following week. Colorado has a long week here in preparation after playing against Toledo the week before and they have an off-week following this game. My prediction: Colorado 38 and Wyoming 7.

October 17th versus Kansas: Colorado knows what this game will mean to their chances of claiming a championship of the North division. Even though this follows a couple of tough back to back games at West Virginia and at Texas, I don't look for Colorado to have a down week here. Kansas has a homecoming game against Iowa State the week before which should be easy for them, but they have a home game against Oklahoma the week following this game. I do expect a bit of a "look ahead" for Kansas here in this one. I also think Colorado has more sound personnel than Kansas and should get the job done with a short line being issued for this game. My prediction: Colorado 32 and Kansas 24.

October 31st versus Missouri: This is Colorado's homecoming game. Last year, Missouri beat Colorado 58-0 in this game. Even though this is a conference game and I don't like to use the "revenge" word very much in conference play, with a thrashing like that, I think revenge is warranted. Again, I think Colorado catches another short line here. My prediction: Colorado 28 and Missouri 21.

November 7th versus Texas A&M: Here's another one of those "trend" games that just seems to work out. The home team in this series has won by 10 ppg or more. I didn't think it would happen last year as bad as A&M was, but it did. Unlike some, I don't think Texas A&M is going to be vastly improved this season. Their defense last year allowed 5.2 ypc and the strength of Colorado's offense this season is going to be their running game. My prediction: Colorado 31 and Texas A&M 14.

[SoonerBS]

Nebraska

I was excited to see the reemergence of the Huskers last season after the dismal years with Callahan. It is just "right" to have teams like Nebraska and Colorado challenging for top honors in the North division according to tradition. Like I said in my post on Colorado, Nebraska could very well win the Big 12 North division this year. They have a decent offensive line and a solid defensive line which usually rank pretty high in my handicapping factors. With Bo Pelini and his defensive coaches, I expect the improving numbers on defense between 2007 and 2008 to continue this season. And, this year's schedule is not as tough as in year's past with only one competitive OOC game against Virginia Tech on the road. I have to keep Nebraska out of my #1 spot though because of the QB and WR positions. I think it is going to be found out that Ganz had a lot more to do with Nebraska's success than he is being given credit for. Whoever Nebraska plugs in at QB will be vastly inexperienced at the position. It complicates the position even more whenever you consider the weakness of the WRs as only one returns this season. Nebraska needs some playmakers and they might be putting all their eggs in one basket with their running game. Helu and Castille are both back, but if Nebraska can't pass, teams will stack the box against them.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Florida Atlantic: I know that Nebraska is coming into the season with a lot of preseason hype due to their big 9-4 season last year, but i still like this game to cover in the opener. FAU boasts a senior starter at QB in Smith, but aside from him, FAU will not be very special this season. Most importantly for us here is the fact that they have to replace almost their entire defense -- most importantly their defensive line and linebackers! Whoever Nebraska starts at QB shouldn't have to do a lot here other than hand it off to their RBs and let Nebraska run all over them. I also don't look for FAU to do much offensively against Nebraska's stout defense. My prediction: Nebraska 49 and FAU 7.

* Well, that's it. I know most people are going to be surprised that I would not make more "play-on" games for a team that is expected to contend for the Big 12 North title, but I simply don't see any other good spots. I always play on the home team in every Thursday night matchup so Missouri is out. Some might point to Texas Tech being a revenge game for them after losing in OT to them last season, but I think Nebraska is going to be favored in this game and I think Tech is highly underrated this season. The game against Oklahoma will have them as "home dogs" and this MIGHT be a good spot for a play-on game, but if Nebraska's passing game doesn't prove to be decent this year, Oklahoma will have a field day on them defensively so I choose to be cautious here.*

[SoonerBS]

Kansas

Kansas COULD have the most proficient offense in the Big 12 North this season. They bring back what is probably the best QB in the North in Todd Reesing and he is surrounded by what is likely the best WR corp in the Big 12. Add these two factors with a RB that averaged over 4.5 ypc last season and the coaching staff is so confident in him that they moved their 2nd string RB to the linebacker position -- an RB that averaged 5.2 ypc last season! Defensively, Kansas had a down year last year as they allowed for 397 ypg. Now, we have to remember that this is the Big 12 and yards are aplenty because of the hi-powered offenses Kansas faced last season, but still, 397 ypg is not good. That looks to be better this season as they return 7 on defense and could go to a 4-2-5 scheme to compensate for their linebacker inexperience and to better help them cover the spread offenses they will face. So, with all this positivity coming back, why would I pick them to be 3rd in the Big 12 North? remember again, I originally said it was a toss up between Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas, but I have picked Kansas 3rd here because of their offensive line. The Offensive line brings back only 2 starters and is in a similar position to Oklahoma in having great personnel at the skill positions but too many questions on the offensive line. They have a very manageable OOC again for the 5th season in a row with their only two competitive games being at UTEP and home against Southern Mississippi. They play a very important North conference game against Colorado on the road. IF they win that game, it will set them up pretty good for the North division championship as they get Nebraska at home.

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Duke: From the looks of things, Duke will likely be . . . well, . . . . DUKE this year. While there were rays of hope of them winning games the last two seasons, they are likely going take a step back this year. I know some critics are still positive since they bring back most of their skill position players, but they have a green offensive line and return only 5 defensive starters. That defense is going to be tested like it has likely never been tested for the last two years whenever they come to Lawrence on this date. The line will likely be in the -28 range, but it will not matter. My prediction: Kansas 52 and Duke 14.

October 24th versus Oklahoma: Kansas proved last year that they could hang with Oklahoma offensively. Even though we could call for a "hangover" here for Kansas following the Colorado game, I think we can definitely call for an Oklahoma hangover following the Texas game and Oklahoma is the team playing on the road here. I expect Kansas to be a home dog of at least 17 points here and I think once again, IF Kansas' offensive line improves by this time, they can hang with Oklahoma offensively. My prediction: Oklahoma 42 and Kansas 30.

November 14th versus Nebraska: Nebraska comes into this game sandwiched between what is likely to be a loss the week before against Oklahoma and having to face what should be an improving K-State team the following week. This game has championship implications and Kansas has the defensive front to stop the Nebraska rushing attack. Line should be short either as a fav or a dog. My prediction: Kansas 35 and Nebraska 31.

[SoonerBS]

Kansas State

Phil Steel is very positive on this team's success for this season . . . I'm not. This program was on the way down and out the last two seasons of Bill Snyder's first time around and it dive bombed under Prince. Now, all because Snyder comes back, K-State is going to rise to 3rd place in the Big 12 North and go bowling at the end of the season? I don't buy it. I see 4, maybe 5 wins for K-State this season and one will not count toward bowl eligibility because he plays 2 FCS teams this season. K-State will not go bowling this season. Steele is wrong. You can't make a living on JUCO transfers anymore because all the teams are recruiting JUCOs now and there are not as many quality JUCOs available as there was whenever Snyder was winning at his peak. Add to this the fact that they will be breaking in a new QB, their RBs are not special, their offensive line is not special, and we don't know if the QB will be able to pass well enough to take advantage of his experienced WRs. And, what about the defense? They bring back 8 starters off last year's squad which would sound good except THEY ALLOWED 479 YPG!! Will they be improved? I should hope to shout they would, but I don't forsee any major improvements that would raise them to the upper echelon of the North. Let's also keep in mind that they are breaking in a new punter and kicker this year . . . . but after last year's dismal production, maybe that is a bright spot on this team.

Play-On Game:

October 17th versus Texas A&M: This might be the only team in the Big 12 conference that K-State will beat on their schedule other than the Iowa State game (and that is in question because it will be played on a neutral field). They catch A&M in a good spot here as A&M is sandwiched between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. As bad as K-State was last year, they won this game at College Station. I think they can do it again here at Manhattan with a predicted short line. My prediction: K-State 33 and Texas A&M 21.

[SoonerBS]

Missouri


Missouri loses all their major playmakers of last season on offense. Gone is Boogereater, Maclin and Coffman that equals 99% of their QB production and 68% of their WR production. Defensively, they lose only 45% of their defensive production which is peculiar whenever you consider the fact that they only bring back 4 starters on that side of the ball. The fact is, defensively, they are experienced, they just didn't get to start last year. Plus, they bring back their star linebacker, Weatherspoon. The bad news is this defense allowed 412 ypg last season, but I actually think they have a chance to be better with their experience.

Here's something interesting to me, I know Missouri has to start a new QB, but he's a 5* recruit that has some mobility and a stronger arm than Boogereater. They lose Coffman, but they have another highly recruited athlete in Andrew Jones who will be stepping in at TE as a Sophomore. They lose Maclin, but the cupboard is not bare whenever it comes to experienced and good receivers. This team is definitely young and less experienced than last year's ball club, but they are not bereft of talent as Pinkel managed to recruit several top recruits through his good years that litter the roster in starting positions and backups this season (notice this in Phil Steele's pages on Missouri). So, yes, they rebuilding this season, but it may not take these guys long to start showing some production. Being that we are interested in making money, Missouri might just be a nice ATS surprise this year as many people have already wrote them off and the lines are likely to be favorable towards them. It is definitely something to watch here.

Play-On Games:


September 12th versus Bowling Green: This game will be the first official "home" opener for Missouri and it will likely follow their first loss the week before to Illinois. They will play a team that looks to be in a similar mode to Missouri -- a rebuilding year. Bowling Green was decent on defense last year, but they lost 7 starters on this side of the ball and 54% of their defensive production. This is a Big 12 team vs. a MAC team and I'll take the Big 12 team in that matchup even though both teams are in a rebuilding year. This game will depend on the line, but I'm thinking maybe a line of around -10 to -14 for Missouri here. My prediction: Missouri 42 and Bowling Green 21.

October 8th versus Nebraska: I ALWAYS take the home team on a Thursday night game (especially if it is on ESPN.) I could kick myself for not saving the record on "the take the home team in an ESPN Thursday night game" last season but it cashed BIG! I also like this because I think Nebraska will probably be a favorite in this game and we get a rare "home dog" to play on in this angle. I'm thinking Nebraska may be a -7 favorite. My prediction: Nebraska 31 and Missouri 28.

October 24th versus Texas: This is the game following the Oklahoma game for Texas, so I'm predicting a Texas/Oklahoma hangover here. Usually in this game, texas covers, and they did so last year against Missouri. But, last year Missouri couldn't be overlooked, this year it's a different story. Texas travels to Missouri and by this time the young team will have 6 games under their belt and will be playing this game as their "homecoming" game. Big home dogs here. My prediction: Texas 49 and Missouri 38.

[SoonerBS]

Iowa State

I think Iowa State is going to be better. I like their new head coach, Paul Rhoads. He is a "realist" in the way he is going about improving this team. The Cyclones gave up 35.8 ppg last season and Rhoads is a defensive specialist. The one thing he pinpointed was the fact that the Iowa State players were not physically fast enough or strong enough to compete in the Big 12. That has been an emphasis so far in their conditional training. The players are having to learn new offensive and defensive schemes, but the cupboard was not bare whenever Chizik left this program to Rhoads. They are deep at QB with Jr., Austen Arnaud leading the way. Offensively they bring back 9 starters while on defense they bring back 6. Whenever talking about returning lettermen, any number over 45 is positive. Iowa State returns 50. This is not a program rich with talent and last season they lost every conference game, BUT they will be improved and with 5 ATS wins last season, they can be played on for some money.

Play-On Games:

October 17th against Baylor: This game is sandwiched between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for Baylor. It's also sandwiched between Kansas and Nebraska for Iowa State, but Iowa State can't afford to overlook anyone and they have picked this game for their homecoming matchup. Baylor will be looking to actually maneuver their position in the South this season with a much improved team and a hopeful outlook for Bowl season. This is a great situational game for Iowa State and they will have 6 games under their belts before this game is played. Iowa State will be dogs by at least a TD. My Prediction: Baylor 35 and Iowa State 32.

November 7th against Oklahoma State: Here is another "sandwich" spot for Iowa State to take advantage. Oklahoma State will be playing this game between Texas and Texas Tech. This is an easy game for the Cowboys to overlook, which is the wrong thing to do on the road this late in the season. Oklahoma State will likely come into this game as long favorites of -21 or more. My prediction: Oklahoma State 45 and Iowa State 35.

November 14th versus Colorado: Colorado has this one sandwiched between Texas A&M the previous week and a Thursday night game against Oklahoma State the next week. It would be easy to overlook this game and it just so happens it will be the last home game for Iowa State -- Senior Day. ISU has several seniors that will be playing hard to make their last impressions on the home crowd. Colorado will be favored here. My prediction: Colorado wins a close one 32-31.

[footballmoney]

Are you writing these up personally?

[Team Ramrod]

I'm with ya on Colorado.

[SoonerBS]

Are you writing these up personally?

Yes, I am. I research all the teams in FBS from the end of last season throughout offseason. This time of the year, I analyze all my info I have on the teams and conferences and I write up my own previews for the upcoming season. I will do the Big 12 South next and then I will move into write-ups for the other BCS and non-BCS conferences. I will have it all finished before the start of the season.