UCF -14, talk me off of it

[Ralphie Halves]

Cons: Temple not getting annihilated like they were earlier in the season. Weather will not be great in Philly (but not extreme winds, which is the major factor for things like unders). And that's about it.

Pros: HUGE disparity between the two programs right now. More than 2 TDs worth of it IMO. UCF's only game that went under 2 TDs was against SMU, who is suprisingly strong this year, and Navy who usually plays everyone close. Temple is a few tiers down from those programs.

This is a "square bet" on the surface simply because it's a short road favorite and everyone wants to yell "TRAP". You shouldn't be able to see a trap -- if everyone under the sun can see it, then....

I do well with games like this, but I wanna make sure there's not something I'm just not seeing before I go and get it at -14. Habla conmigo.

[Renegades]

Temple offense playing much much better since new qb took over. Ucf should be able to put up pts with ease though

[Shark]

undefeated teams have historically performed poorly ATS in the CFP era in the last few weeks of the season. The pressure of staying perfect and putting together their best effort week after week seems to prevent these teams from covering much. I don't have the win/loss number but its pretty poor.

[Ralphie Halves]

Liking it, keep it coming.

[luckyutah]

UCF is in a big look ahead spot with USF up next Friday. ABC 3:30 game.

Temple needs a W to get to a bowl game.

Temple is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

There's not much of a home field advantage, but Temple does play better at home.

I'll take Temple. Mostly because of the look ahead. But good luck.

[asiagambler]

UCF defense is not that good

I think backdoor cover

[BigdaddyQH]

Liking it, keep it coming.

Ralphie. After the crappy way USF played last night against Tulsa, I would not take any Group of 5 team and lay those kind of points. This may be a "let's score enough to win and get out of here" type of game. GL.

[Ralphie Halves]

Ralphie. After the crappy way USF played last night against Tulsa, I would not take any Group of 5 team and lay those kind of points. This may be a "let's score enough to win and get out of here" type of game. GL.

Yeah, that game surprised me. USF is 4-5 ATS however, compared to 5-3 for UCF which is a bit more respectable. Quentin Flowers is super unpredictable, and I stayed away from USF for most of the year because of this.

Tough weeks ahead, no doubt.

[BigdaddyQH]

Yeah, that game surprised me. USF is 4-5 ATS however, compared to 5-3 for UCF which is a bit more respectable. Quentin Flowers is super unpredictable, and I stayed away from USF for most of the year because of this.

Tough weeks ahead, no doubt.

Last night did not surprise me. I KNEW that Charlie would find a way to screw up that offense and he did. Now a very good QB in Flowers has absolutely NO confidence at all in his offensive scheme. This was the best shot USF had of getting to a New Years 6 Bowl game and it appears to be just about gone now.

[Husker36]

The OVER looks nice

[Toples]

undefeated teams have historically performed poorly ATS in the CFP era in the last few weeks of the season. The pressure of staying perfect and putting together their best effort week after week seems to prevent these teams from covering much. I don't have the win/loss number but its pretty poor.

not really. undefeated teams cover 48% in weeks 11+, just checked the numbers.

BUT you are right in this situation
Being 10+points away favorite, they probably dont think about covering some ATS spread so you could win your bet, but only winning and staying undefeated and might be cautious and play more conservative on road (they dont have to please home crowd), thus not covering big spreads.


numbers:
although 91% win the game only 38% cover

So i think you should bet Temple if you bet this game at all

[Ralphie Halves]

UCF more than 14 pts better than Temple, nuff said.

Do appreciate the feedback though.

[GameDayz]

Coach leaving concerns seemed to take a toll on UofH last year...
But I've been loving UCF and MEM ats all year.

[Ralphie Halves]

Coach leaving concerns seemed to take a toll on UofH last year...
But I've been loving UCF and MEM ats all year.

Yeah, but not that one big surprise team this year you can just ride for weeks and weeks on end like Idaho was last year, or Buffalo in years past. UCF has done me well though.

UAB has really been that team this year, but it took so long for anyone to believe they could just come back into FBS play the way they did.

Or fading Hawaii, but a lot of people, including me thought they were ready for a much better year.