Tommy Karate/TK CFB Plays 2017-2018

Tommy Karate · 09-07-17, 09:28 PM

Fri 9.8

(2u) Over Memphis/UCF 69

Tommy Karate · 09-09-17, 12:07 PM

Sat 9.9

(2u) Over Syracuse/MT 73.5
(2u) Over Ducks/Nebraska 68.5
(2u) Over Mizzou/SC 71
(4u) Over New Mexico/NM St 72.5
(4u) Over Cougars/Arizona 67.5
(1u) Ball St -14
(1u) Virginia +4.5
(1u) Texas -25
(1u) Villanova +15
(1u) Middle Tenn +9
(1u) Penn St -21
(1u) Tulane +10
(2u) TCU -2.5
(1u) Tulsa -14
(2u) Ducks -11
(4u) Bruins -23.5/-120

Tommy Karate · 09-10-17, 06:04 PM

CFB Week 1: 9-7 (-3.6u)

Tommy Karate · 09-13-17, 10:08 PM

Thur 9.14

(2u) New Mexico +15

NostraDanUS · 09-14-17, 03:40 AM

road team: New Mexico : current rating = 35.01, last_4_delta = 0.00, ATS record: 0- 2, O/U: 0/ 2
home team: Boise State : current rating = 56.11, last_4_delta = 0.00, ATS record: 2- 0, O/U: 1/ 1

Boise State is favored by 14.5
over/under: 58.5

***

New Mexico road ATS record: 0- 0
Boise State home ATS record: 1- 0

New Mexico home sched rating: 26.03, ave MoV: 11.00
New Mexico road sched rating: 52.09, ave MoV: -3.60 *

Boise State home sched rating: 44.18, ave MoV: 11.00
Boise State road sched rating: 59.01, ave MoV: -3.00

* - last season's values

New Mexico home/road ratings: 34.63 / 0.00
Boise State home/road ratings: 53.18 / 59.22

New Mexico ave points for/against/combined: 33.00 / 22.00 / 55.00
Boise State ave points for/against/combined: 27.50 / 22.00 / 49.50

New Mexico home points for/against/combined: 33.00 / 22.00 / 55.00
New Mexico road points for/against/combined: 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00
Boise State home points for/against/combined: 24.00 / 13.00 / 37.00
Boise State road points for/against/combined: 31.00 / 31.00 / 62.00

----------------------------------------------------------------------

head-to-head history (lined games):

10/ 7/2016 Boise State 49 -19.0 at New Mexico 21
11/14/2015 New Mexico 31 +30.5 at Boise State 24
11/ 8/2014 Boise State 60 -19.0 at New Mexico 49
11/30/2013 New Mexico 17 +37.0 at Boise State 45
9/29/2012 Boise State 32 -25.5 at New Mexico 29
12/ 3/2011 New Mexico 0 +48.5 at Boise State 45
9/ 2/2000 Boise State 31 - 1.5 at New Mexico 14
9/25/1999 New Mexico 9 - 3.0 at Boise State 20

average outcome:
New Mexico 21.3 Boise State 38.3
margin = 17.00

time-weighted average outcome:
New Mexico 26.3 Boise State 42.6
margin = 16.30

average result when the home team is Boise State
New Mexico 14.3 Boise State 33.5
margin = 19.25

average result when the home team is New Mexico
Boise State 43.0 New Mexico 28.3
margin = -14.75

50.00 % of games went Over
0.00 % went Over at Boise State
(since 2011 )

average total points per game = 59.50
time-weighted average total = 68.81

the home team covered 37.50 % of the time
the road team covered 62.50 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -3.75

the favorite covered 25.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 75.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -8.75

the favorite won SU 75.00 % of the time

New Mexico covered 62.50 % of the time
Boise State covered 37.50 % of the time

Boise State covered 25.00 % of the time at home
Boise State covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites

fly fisher · 09-14-17, 08:46 AM

TK, I don't think UNM can cover on this one. Boise has a pretty good D and can score. UNM couldn't stop NMSt at home and who is a much lesser opponent than Boise. UNM traveling to Boise seems to me like a recipe to get blown out. I watched Boise play WASt and they almost won that game on the road. I don't know the criteria you used to take UNM but I see them losing by 17+. If you see UNM being able to score, then maybe the over is a good call. Boise 38-20 is my guess. Maybe Boise scores 42

BigdaddyQH · 09-14-17, 10:35 AM

Not a lot to choose from here, but New Mexico is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 efforts against Boise St. and Boise State is 0-7 ATS as a Weekday HF of 7 or more points. Remember that Boise State's points from last week included two OT's. Still, I do not believe in wagering on 20 games a week, so this is a pass.

fly fisher · 09-15-17, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

Thur 9.14

(2u) New Mexico +15

Good call, I shouldn't doubt you

Tommy Karate · 09-15-17, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by fly fisher

Good call, I shouldn't doubt you

ha - im no expert in college ball.

Tommy Karate · 09-15-17, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Not a lot to choose from here, but New Mexico is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 efforts against Boise St. and Boise State is 0-7 ATS as a Weekday HF of 7 or more points. Remember that Boise State's points from last week included two OT's. Still, I do not believe in wagering on 20 games a week, so this is a pass.

BigD - good to see you. good luck this season.

Tommy Karate · 09-15-17, 08:19 PM

Friday 9.15

(2u) Over Arizona/UTEP 58.5
(2u) Arizona -25

Tommy Karate · 09-15-17, 10:41 PM

Sat 9.16

(6u) Over UCLA/Memphis 72
(6u) Over T. Tech/Arz St 76
(6u) Over Ole Miss/Cal 71.5

Tommy Karate · 09-16-17, 07:22 PM

(4u) Washington -33
(2u) USC -16.5
(1u) SD St +9
(2u) Cal +6

Tommy Karate · 09-17-17, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

CFB Week 1: 9-7 (-3.6u)

CFB Week 2: 6-4 (+6u)
YTD: 16-11 (+2u)

Tommy Karate · 09-21-17, 09:30 PM

Fri 9.22

(2u) Arizona +3.5
(1u) Under Boise St/Virginia 52

Tommy Karate · 09-23-17, 04:35 PM

Sat 9.23

(4u) Wash St -28
(2u) Over Wash St/Nevada 66
(10u) Over Ducks/Arizona St 76.5/-120
(2u) Arizona St +14.5

Tommy Karate · 09-27-17, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

CFB Week 2: 6-4 (+6u)
YTD: 16-11 (+2u)

CFB Week 3: 2-4 (-12u)
YTD: 18-15 (-10u)

StackinGreen · 09-28-17, 12:22 PM

Play Vandy this week, TK

BigdaddyQH · 09-28-17, 03:07 PM

Oregon is averaging 42 ppg against FBS opposition and is giving up over 28 points. Cal is scoring an average of over 27 ppg against FBS teams and is giving up over 25 ppg. One of those games was against USC. The total for the Cal-Oregon game is 68. I think the over is a great play.Oregon will not be happy campers after losing to Arizona State last week and will want to run up the score.

StackinGreen · 09-29-17, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Oregon is averaging 42 ppg against FBS opposition and is giving up over 28 points. Cal is scoring an average of over 27 ppg against FBS teams and is giving up over 25 ppg. One of those games was against USC. The total for the Cal-Oregon game is 68. I think the over is a great play.Oregon will not be happy campers after losing to Arizona State last week and will want to run up the score.

College over? I'll jump on board, BigD

Tommy Karate · 09-29-17, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Oregon is averaging 42 ppg against FBS opposition and is giving up over 28 points. Cal is scoring an average of over 27 ppg against FBS teams and is giving up over 25 ppg. One of those games was against USC. The total for the Cal-Oregon game is 68. I think the over is a great play.Oregon will not be happy campers after losing to Arizona State last week and will want to run up the score.

love it

Tommy Karate · 09-29-17, 08:58 PM

Fri 9/29

(2u) Wash St +4.5

Tommy Karate · 09-29-17, 10:20 PM

Sat 9.30

(1u) Penn St -18
(2u) Miss St +8
(2u) LSU -20.5
(4u) Ducks -18
(4u) Over Ducks/Cal 67
(4u) Over S. Fla/EC 72.5
(4u) Over Navy/Tulsa 70
(4u) Over S. Methodist/UConn 75
(2u) Over Memphis/UCF 68.5
(10u) Over Okl St/Red Raiders 84
(2u) Red Raiders +10.5

RavensFan2k3 · 09-30-17, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Play Vandy this week, TK

You like Vandy vs Florida?

DLucky1 · 09-30-17, 10:55 AM

wondering same thing???

StackinGreen · 09-30-17, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

You like Vandy vs Florida?

Yeah, I like Indiana even more +18.5, I also posted the others on the Steele thread

I'm rocking with BigDaddy on the Oregon over, my number is 67

Tommy Karate · 10-01-17, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Oregon is averaging 42 ppg against FBS opposition and is giving up over 28 points. Cal is scoring an average of over 27 ppg against FBS teams and is giving up over 25 ppg. One of those games was against USC. The total for the Cal-Oregon game is 68. I think the over is a great play.Oregon will not be happy campers after losing to Arizona State last week and will want to run up the score.

nice call

StackinGreen · 10-01-17, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

College over? I'll jump on board, BigD

Tommy Karate · 10-03-17, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

CFB Week 3: 2-4 (-12u)
YTD: 18-15 (-10u)

CFB Week 4: 7-5 (push)
CFB YTD: 25-20 (-10u)

Tommy Karate · 10-04-17, 09:48 PM

Thur 10.5

(2u) NC State +3.5
(4u) Over NCS/LVille 65.5

Tommy Karate · 10-06-17, 09:09 PM

Fri 10.6

(2u) Under Boise/BYU 47
(1u) BYU +7.5

Tommy Karate · 10-07-17, 09:17 AM

Sat 10.7

(2u) Auburn -22.5
(6u) Over T.Tech/KU 79
(1u) Kansas +14.5
(2u) Sooners -31
(2u) Over Sooners/Cyclones 60.5
(1u) N. Illinois -22.5
(2u) TCU -13
(4u) Over TCU/WV 67
(1u) Gators -2
(4u) Florida St +3.5
(1u) Under Purdue/Minn 46.5
(1u) N. Carolina +14.5
(1u) S. Carolina +3
(4u) Over La. Tech/UAB 65.5
(2u) USC -33
(2u) Over Lafayette/Idaho 62

Tommy Karate · 10-07-17, 11:32 AM

(2u) Michigan St +11
(2u) K. State +7
(4u) Wash St -110
(2u) W. Kentucky -16.5
(4u) Under Stanford/Utah 52
(4u) Over Arz/Colorado 59
(2u) UCF -15
(2u) Utah +3.5
(10u) Washington -28
(4u) Over Hawaii/Nevada 63
(1u) Nevada +4
(1u) UNLV +9.5

Tommy Karate · 10-10-17, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

CFB Week 4: 7-5 (push)
CFB YTD: 25-20 (-10u)

CFB Week 5: 14-18 (+1u)
CFB YTD: 39-38 (-9u)