I will lay -3 (-150) with Michigan this afternoon.

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  • Snowball
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 11-15-09
    • 30057

    #1
    I will lay -3 (-150) with Michigan this afternoon.
    angles:

    Starters:
    Much being made of Michigan's lack of returning starters, but that factor
    is likely overestimated, because Michigan is one of the best programs
    in the country. Truly elite programs like Michigan are always stacked
    with real football talent. They recruit and prepare depth at all positions.
    Florida has more serious personnel issues. 10 players suspended for
    misusing school funds include very important offensive weapons WR
    Callaway and RB Scarlett. Moreover, their injury sheet is a mile long.

    Florida is not going into this game with an organized and well-planned unit.
    Their moment where we see their best is likely a month+ away.

    Coaching:
    Jim Harbaugh. Truly inspirational and perceptive head coach.
    Compare with how the Florida coach McElwain is managing the problems.
    He kept the starting QB competition active until the last minute (Thursday).
    Most expected Malik Zaire, the Notre Dame graduate transfer to start.
    He's been working with the team since June. Instead, Redshirt Freshman
    Felipe Franks gets the nod, a totally unestablished player with the obvious eye
    on future development more than winning now, as in today.
    If this is where McElwain is going, it says something about the nature of this game.
    Being on a neutral field - and the first inter-conference opener for Florida, I suspect
    McElwain is more prepared to accept a loss than Harbaugh is.
    Harbaugh knows how to capitalize against a freshman QB.

    I would be ok with laying 5 but since the buy to -3, covering 3 for push and 4
    brings this line to a palatable (-150).
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