Picks

Notorious_Donk · 08-29-17, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Gamblinmann

My intent here was to discuss CFB plays in a forum with knowledgeable people. I have been searching for over a year now. I did not want to distract from the purpose of a forum which is to gather perspectives and try to make a few bucks but most of all, have some fun. All I want to say is this, (and I hope my feelings can be respected), I do have a solid history and track record, but I am honest enough to admit, I cracked under the pressure of always having to be right because so many were counting on me. That is on me and something I have to find a way to live with.

My gambling history can be summed up in 2 old sayings:

1- Be kind to the people you meet on the way up cause you meet them again on the way down.

2-Be careful what you wish for.

I pick games for myself now, not a recommendation to anyone else.

Need to have thick skin in this industry if you ever want to sustain a successful run. Seems like you have the picks, now you just gotta ignore the 'haters' who can't decide if they wanna use the only bill in their wallet on a live bet or a pack of cigarettes.

BOL this season

Gamblinmann · 08-29-17, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by Notorious_Donk

Need to have thick skin in this industry if you ever want to sustain a successful run. Seems like you have the picks, now you just gotta ignore the 'haters' who can't decide if they wanna use the only bill in their wallet on a live bet or a pack of cigarettes.

BOL this season

You're right but sometimes I forget. I can remember going 7-1 back in the day and have several people rip me apart cause I lost one. Just the nature of the beast.

I hope you have an outstanding season!

Gamblinmann · 08-29-17, 02:11 PM

USC-27 vs Western Michigan $55 to win $50

Not much to say on this one. Just buying into the hype that is USC. WM lost most of their stud guys and I see USC pitching the ole shut out here.

Gamblinmann · 08-29-17, 11:49 PM

Love the 2 team parlay and I won some baseball money tonight (Thank you Cubbies& Minny, although laying a run and a half is nerve wrecking) so what the hell.

Michigan St-17.5 vs Bowling Green & Arizona St- 22.5 vs New Mexico St $50 to win $130

I believe both MSU & ASU are a bit under rated. Neither played up to their talent level last season. Sun Devil coach is on the hot seat so he has every reason to run up the score. I'm hoping the Spartans learned their lesson last season against Furman.

Gamblinmann · 08-30-17, 10:00 AM

Indiana +12.5 vs Ohio St first half $75 to win $68

This one is based purely on what I expect to be a high emotional level of the fans and players in regards to ex coach Kevin Wilson. It's no secret he ridiculed players who were hurt for not playing. I figure I need 10 points from the IU offense in the first half to cover this which is doable.

Gamblinmann · 08-30-17, 10:03 AM

Adding another $100 to win $90 on Oklahoma St-18 vs Tulsa making this my biggest play for this week along with CSU.

BigdaddyQH · 08-30-17, 11:32 AM

You play too many games to be a consistent winner, but I hope you do well. As far as these picks are concerned, you have overlooked several problems. First, it will be nearly 100 degrees when USC kicks off against Western Michigan. There will be no shut out and USC will pull their starters as soon as the game is safely put away. This is the very definition of a "pass" game.

The heat will not help Arizona State either. They may have the worst team in the Pac 12 South. There is a big question at QB for them and the talent level on this team is questionable. New Mexico State does not have much of a defense, but they can score, making a back door cover a very realistic possibility. Michigan State returns few, if any players. Giving that many points in a game which Dantonio will be wanting to see a lot of players perform.

I like the Indiana wager. They should be able to keep that game relatively close in the first half before Ohio State blows them out in the 2nd half.

I like your overall attitude, but disagree with what you stated here: "1- Be kind to the people you meet on the way up cause you meet them again on the way down." I do not believe that I will go down. My success level will vary, but I have been playing this game starting back in the late 60's. I learned from the very best. In the past 25 years, I have had only ONE losing season, back in the 90's. My average winning season is about 58%. On a seasonal basis, some will do better. Many will do worse. Overall, very few will do better and over 90% of you people who actually wager will do worse. I also never "wish" for anything. If I am not sure, I do not play it. I also never play on a USC game, on or fade. USC is my alma mater. In this game, you wager with your head, NOT your heart. By making a rule not to wager on USC, I just get rid of a temptation,which kills most of you guys in here.

One other thing. In this business, it is always nice to have a few individuals that you can chat with and respect their opinions, but the bottom line is this. You are either a cut-throat winner or a nice guy loser. While I would like to see certain guys win, I really could care less if they do or not. I've got too many problems of my own to worry about theirs. I will always answer questions, but when the occasional "bait and switch" game appears, do not expect me to tip you off about it. I won't.

Gamblinmann · 08-30-17, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

You play too many games to be a consistent winner, but I hope you do well. As far as these picks are concerned, you have overlooked several problems. First, it will be nearly 100 degrees when USC kicks off against Western Michigan. There will be no shut out and USC will pull their starters as soon as the game is safely put away. This is the very definition of a "pass" game.

The heat will not help Arizona State either. They may have the worst team in the Pac 12 South. There is a big question at QB for them and the talent level on this team is questionable. New Mexico State does not have much of a defense, but they can score, making a back door cover a very realistic possibility. Michigan State returns few, if any players. Giving that many points in a game which Dantonio will be wanting to see a lot of players perform.

I like the Indiana wager. They should be able to keep that game relatively close in the first half before Ohio State blows them out in the 2nd half.

I like your overall attitude, but disagree with what you stated here: "1- Be kind to the people you meet on the way up cause you meet them again on the way down." I do not believe that I will go down. My success level will vary, but I have been playing this game starting back in the late 60's. I learned from the very best. In the past 25 years, I have had only ONE losing season, back in the 90's. My average winning season is about 58%. On a seasonal basis, some will do better. Many will do worse. Overall, very few will do better and over 90% of you people who actually wager will do worse. I also never "wish" for anything. If I am not sure, I do not play it. I also never play on a USC game, on or fade. USC is my alma mater. In this game, you wager with your head, NOT your heart. By making a rule not to wager on USC, I just get rid of a temptation,which kills most of you guys in here.

One other thing. In this business, it is always nice to have a few individuals that you can chat with and respect their opinions, but the bottom line is this. You are either a cut-throat winner or a nice guy loser. While I would like to see certain guys win, I really could care less if they do or not. I've got too many problems of my own to worry about theirs. I will always answer questions, but when the occasional "bait and switch" game appears, do not expect me to tip you off about it. I won't.

I appreciate the advice and while I do not agree with anything you stated, you have a right to your opinion. It is a sad state of the world we live in when reading comprehension is a struggle for so many. I've been to the top of the mountain, I know what it's like to walk into a vegas casino and have all the people working at the craps table know who I was. I have had a few name their children after me. I had one guy place 5 grand on an LSU bet that I guaranteed back in the Matty Flynn days and he bought an engagement ring for his girl and they are still married today.

I stated clearly, I do this for me now. When yoiu grow older and you can no longer compete on the court, field or ice, you miss that competitiveness. Now, I compete against myself. As for playing to many? It's the first freaking week ok? I've been jonseing all summer for this.

As for your record, well mine was out there for all to see, nothing hidden. EVERY play I made was posted in a forum and on later, on my site.

You are a condescending individual. You give advice to someone you do not know. You talk to me like I'm new to this.

As for USC, it is a SMALL play, just so I do not kick myself for not buying the hype. As for weather? Perhaps you forgot what being 20 yrs old was like.

I have no problem with anyone critiquing my picks, as I do that before I make a wager. Last, but not least, if I end up one lousy dollar ahead after this week, than it was a success for me cause I am gonna have one helluva 3 days, win or lose.

I sincerely wish you the best of luck this season and hope you have great success again.

Gamblinmann · 08-30-17, 08:48 PM

Michigan-5.5 vs Florida $60 to win $53

Might add more to this under 7 depending on tomorrow and Friday. I'm wondering just who Florida suits up for this game. Harbaugh is the better coach and Michigan recruits well so despite the fact they lost so much, they have enough to take on a severely depleted Gator team.

JayDr3am · 08-31-17, 03:16 AM

subscribed this month huh.. sheesh.. get ready for the cucks man. the hate will be nonstop. just keep your down and work. ignore the bullshit. let your #'s do the talking for ya. BOL this season

i like this michigan play. might be on that side also.

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

subscribed this month huh.. sheesh.. get ready for the cucks man. the hate will be nonstop. just keep your down and work. ignore the bullshit. let your #'s do the talking for ya. BOL this season

i like this michigan play. might be on that side also.

Actually, it's not much different from the forum I started on way back when, except I sense a tad more anger here. Thanks for the advice and hope you have a profitable season.

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 09:27 AM

Toledo-42 vs Elon $107 to win $97

Yep, HUGE chalk. Toledo might cover this by half time. Last season, Elon had a total of 4 td passes-for the season! Toledo is loaded on offense and 70+ would not surprise me. Their 2's and 3's will score more points than Elon does for their entire season. The Toledo D will pitch the shutout against a team that avg'd 12 pg last year. Final score: Toledo 72-0

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 10:29 AM

Looks like I am not alone in eating some heavy chalk. Rockets line getting pounded.

HeeluvaGuy · 08-31-17, 10:48 AM

Just skimmed through your thread and just wanted to say best of luck this season.

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Just skimmed through your thread and just wanted to say best of luck this season.

Same to you, hope your season is profitable and more importantly, enjoyable.

teecee · 08-31-17, 12:34 PM

Nice number on B.C. I picked them up, but at -3.5. I think they should handle No. Illinois.

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by teecee

Nice number on B.C. I picked them up, but at -3.5. I think they should handle No. Illinois.

Yep, got it on the 27th at oddsmaker. Good luck

Play Time:	2017-09-01 21:30
Selection:	Boston College to win
Odds:	Point Spread (-2.5) -115
Bet Odds:	-115
Bet Amount:	$116.00
Bet Payout:	$216.86
Won Amount:	Wager Pending
Time Placed:	2017-08-27 01:14:41

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 01:29 PM

I know the Ram line was bouncing around so just in case any questions this is the +7 and I got the +6.5 at Betonline at same time.

Play Time:	2017-09-01 20:00
Selection:	Colorado State to win
Odds:	Point Spread (+7.0) -120
Bet Odds:	-120
Bet Amount:	$120.00
Bet Payout:	$220.00
Won Amount:	Wager Pending
Time Placed:	2017-08-26 18:32:47

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 02:04 PM

Damn!!!!! Could have gotten that Indiana first half bet at +13.5 now. Stupid, stupid STUPID!

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 09:05 PM

Well, so far a good night. Got the IU first half cover. Okie St looking good but Freaking Toledo inside the red zone 3 times in the first half and kicked fgs and then fumbled a punt. I was looking for the perfect night but if the Cowboys cover, it's a good night.

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 09:44 PM

Okie St Baby!!!!!!!!!! HUGE night!

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 09:45 PM

Play Time:	2017-08-31 19:37
Selection:	Oklahoma State to win
Odds:	Point Spread (-18.0) -110
Bet Odds:	-110
Bet Amount:	$100.00
Bet Payout:	$190.90
Won Amount:	Wager Pending
Time Placed:	2017-08-30 10:53:12

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 09:46 PM

Play Time:	2017-08-31 19:37
Selection:	Oklahoma State to win
Odds:	Point Spread (-18.0) -110
Bet Odds:	-110
Bet Amount:	$150.00
Bet Payout:	$286.36
Won Amount:	Wager Pending
Time Placed:	2017-08-27 15:28:17

muscleville7 · 08-31-17, 09:57 PM

Keep up the work! Tailed the plays. Thanks.

Gamblinmann · 08-31-17, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by muscleville7

Keep up the work! Tailed the plays. Thanks.

Seriously brother, if you made cash off my picks, that's a better feeling for me than seeing the money in my account. It's us against the books, and sometimes a blind squirrel finds an acorn.

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 01:01 AM

Washington-27.5 vs Rutgers $220 to win $200

Washington is a highly under the radar team. No one mentions them as a national championship contender. They have a stud QB, a high octane offense and a very solid D. The Scarlet knights suck. I'll lay the chalk and follow the trend of explosive offenses coming out of the gate smoking.

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 01:04 AM

Navy-10 vs Florida Atlantic $55 to win $50

I've won some good coin betting on Navy over the years so I'm going back to the well for a small play.

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 09:47 AM

Eastern Michigan-14 vs Charlotte $146 to win $132

Roback returns at QB for EM and he put up some solid numbers in 10 games last season. He has 3 RBs who can all carry the rock so we should see some big play action quick strike plays. The Charlotte D had the 122nd ranked pass D in the country last season and they lost several guys so it's possible they are even worse right now. The allowed 34.6 ppg so EA should score a boatload of points tonight.

Charlotte:
1-5 ATS in last 6 in September
1-5 ATS non conference last 6

Eastern Michigan:
9-2 ATS last 11 games
4-0 ATS last 4 vs CUSA
5-1 last 6 vs non conference

MayneJB · 09-01-17, 09:52 AM

Tailed your pics as well! Keep it up bro!

BigdaddyQH · 09-01-17, 10:00 AM

Beware of the Michigan-Florida game. While FLorida lost a lot of players, they were mostly bench sitters anyway. Remember, you are wagering on a game that features two teams that are wanna-be's as far as challenging for their Divisional Championships are concerned.

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Beware of the Michigan-Florida game. While FLorida lost a lot of players, they were mostly bench sitters anyway. Remember, you are wagering on a game that features two teams that are wanna-be's as far as challenging for their Divisional Championships are concerned.

Small play for me just betting on Harbaugh and his recruiting acumen. Florida has no QB so points will tough to get even against a new Michigan D. Factor in the Gators WR corp leaves much to be desired.

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by MayneJB

Tailed your pics as well! Keep it up bro!

Thanks. I'm working my rear off spending countless hrs analyzing everything. It's actually starting to cut into my beer drinking time!

Notorious_Donk · 09-01-17, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by Gamblinmann

Thanks. I'm working my rear off spending countless hrs analyzing everything. It's actually starting to cut into my beer drinking time!

Never turn your back on the liquor!

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Notorious_Donk

Never turn your back on the liquor!

You are correct sir. Just picked up some Sam Adams Octoberfest and gonna finish looking at games for a couple of hrs and then head outside to the back yard and start consuming the nectar of the gods..........

Gamblinmann · 09-01-17, 12:38 PM

Last one for today, just a gut pick. I don't care how long you practice defending it, the option can be a motherfraker.

Navy-6.5 first half bet $50 to win $43

Play Time:	2017-09-01 20:00
Selection:	Navy (1H) to win
Odds:	Point Spread (-6.5) -115
Bet Odds:	-115
Bet Amount:	$50.00
Bet Payout:	$93.47
Won Amount:	Wager Pending
Time Placed:	2017-09-01 13:34:54