Marc Lawrence: Follow Falcons +17 at Frogs

[SBRforum Staff]

Follow Falcons +17 at Frogs

Game Time: 12/2/2006 3:30:00 PM

By: Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence's Playbook: Free and Guaranteed Picks

Take the points and Air Force when the Falcons travel to Amon Carter Stadium in Ft. Worth to play the TCU Horned Frogs.

The Falcons look to put a positive spin on a disappointing season in their season finale against the Horned Frogs.

While the Air Force Academy owns just four wins on the season, they still bring the nation's third ranked rushing offense into this tilt. Chad Hall has 757 yards rushing on the season, with five touchdowns and a 5.1 per carry average. Quarterback Shaun Carney has 634 yards on the ground and eight running scores, with Ryan Williams adding 427 yards rushing and four touchdowns.

With TCU looking ahead to the bowl season, and head coach Gary Patterson 0-11 ATS as a favorite in games in which his team allows 100+ rushing yards, we'll gladly take the big double-digit line with the Fly Boys here today.

Play: Air Force +17

[bigboydan]

Thats the only way I could play this game as well.

[freeneasy]

well that just doesnt make a whole lot of sense. to start with i dont know what the heck tcu is looking ahead to when the first bowl game starts on dec 19. after tcu beats air f they will be 10-2 and they wont be playing in the poinsettia bowl on the 19th so lets move a little further down the time line to where the more important bowls begin. starting on dec 28 you got 21 bowl games that need 42 teams to fill.
tcu is not in the top 25 but they are in the top 30, so a reasonable expectation can be that the earliest tcu will see a bowl game will be on dec 28 in the independence bowl. your not going to see tcu any earlier, so whatever game it is that tcu might be looking ahead to is a minimum 28 days away. you think usc is looking ahead some 38 days to ohio st with ucla up. tcu is not going to get caught looking ahead even tho their playing an air force team that lost their last game to a pitiful unlv team by 3 points when they were favored to win by 10.
but to be a little more realistic, yeah, why not, air force does have a shot to cover that 17 1/2 point spread against tcu and just as well tcu has, in my opinion, as good of a shot to if not a little better to cover that 17 1/2 point spread over air force.

overall my numbers give me
tcu 30.03
af 16.94
tcu -13.10 with air force getting a 4.40 point advantage to cover in this comparison

in the more recent games played my number comes up
tcu 39.84
af 16.25
tcu - 23.60. tcu getting a 6 point advantage to cover here

averaging out to
tcu 34.23
af 16.64
tcu -17.60 making this game in my prospective a 50/50 play, least wise as far as the/my numbers are concerned.

[BuddyBear]

I would lean AF myself....

[pags11]

I do wonder how TCU feels about drawing NIU for the bowl game...they can't be too fired up...

[nevadaside]

well that just doesnt make a whole lot of sense. to start with i dont know what the heck tcu is looking ahead to when the first bowl game starts on dec 19. after tcu beats air f they will be 10-2 and they wont be playing in the poinsettia bowl on the 19th so lets move a little further down the time line to where the more important bowls begin. starting on dec 28 you got 21 bowl games that need 42 teams to fill.
tcu is not in the top 25 but they are in the top 30, so a reasonable expectation can be that the earliest tcu will see a bowl game will be on dec 28 in the independence bowl. your not going to see tcu any earlier, so whatever game it is that tcu might be looking ahead to is a minimum 28 days away. you think usc is looking ahead some 38 days to ohio st with ucla up. tcu is not going to get caught looking ahead even tho their playing an air force team that lost their last game to a pitiful unlv team by 3 points when they were favored to win by 10.
but to be a little more realistic, yeah, why not, air force does have a shot to cover that 17 1/2 point spread against tcu and just as well tcu has, in my opinion, as good of a shot to if not a little better to cover that 17 1/2 point spread over air force.

overall my numbers give me
tcu 30.03
af 16.94
tcu -13.10 with air force getting a 4.40 point advantage to cover in this comparison

in the more recent games played my number comes up
tcu 39.84
af 16.25
tcu - 23.60. tcu getting a 6 point advantage to cover here

averaging out to
tcu 34.23
af 16.64
tcu -17.60 making this game in my prospective a 50/50 play, least wise as far as the/my numbers are concerned.

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Team Report

Posted: 4 days ago
It may not mean much outside Fort Worth, but TCU has a chance to be the winningest program among all the Division I-A programs in Texas this season. The Horned Frogs (9-2, 5-2 Mountain West Conference) play host to reeling Air Force on Saturday in their regular-season finale. The Falcons have lost three straight and five of six. Then, TCU is off to the Poinsettia Bowl, where it will face Northern Illinois and running back Garrett Wolfe, the nation's leading rusher with 1,900 yards. Full Story