They seem harder than regular season games because you have no idea if a team will show up mentally. Historically how well have people been with bowl games?
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I wager on very few of them for the exact reason you just stated. Remember last year, there were three 5-7 teams that made it in and all three won. What does that tell you? I am anxious to see the match ups.Comment -
The only way I have found success is to bet in game live. Watch a little of the game and you can tell which team shows up to play. This works great if you are leaning to play underdogs.Comment -
haven't done them recently.........
but my experience years ago is that they were much much easier than regular games.........
i think there were good threads on this in general and on a bowl game system (something to do with rushing yards)..
should try to find them.
some of the things i used to look at................
PLAY ON: teams from more athletic region (i.e. ACC, SEC, Sun Belt)
FADE: big conference teams who are very disappointed and flat...... teams that overachieved like mad on momentum and adrenalene i.e. iowa last year or Cinncy or hawaii a number of seasons ago. layoff kills momentum and other teams have tons of time to prepareComment -
they mention the rushing game as being extremely important ex-post........... of course, the winning team tends to eat clock with the run............ but this mentions 1) yards per carry predicting 75% winners - again ex-post; 2) passing game not predicting anything.
so someone should be able - and i think people have in prior seasons - cobble together an ex-ante system that picks ATS winners, but of course not at 75% clip.Comment -
regarding the upstart teams being "figured out"..... i tend to see bowl games as a "brand new season" and would probably handicap more in line with how teams were supposed to do in the past season.
i realize some rules are somewhat contradictory.................... but except for big teams that had very disappointing season i would tend to go with the more athletic teams as they get a "reset" for the bowl games.Comment -
That article would appear to have been written some time ago (December 1999 I believe). It would be interesting to see if the rushing game approach still holds with how pass-happy offenses have evolved over the past decade.
Nonetheless, this discussion is a great starting point. Looking forward to see the matchups and lines.Comment -
people were still on the rushing system the last few years. and i think it was still working........... surprised i can't google the threads but they exist.
nice catch, i didn't realize the article was so old but i do think much of the underlying theory would still hold......... i guess the question would be whether the market has fully adjusted.Comment -
not the thread i was thinking of but interesting nonethelessComment -
Another solid angle is play on DD dogs pre new years dayComment -
best part of the seasonComment -
Let's figure out what the heck we're doing.Comment -
I play them all. Im going to watch them, so why not bet themComment -
i did a comment in a thread but no one cared..
in past 11 or 13 seasons or something....... SEC has had 1 losing bowl season 40% and Big 12 has had 1 winning ATS bowl season..... those records are as per the conferences at the time. so TAM/Missouri/Colorado would mostly reflect Big 12 and they aren't there any longer. so beware.Comment -
somewhat surprisingly CUSA was a good conference. but again, i think it's changed alot in recent years.Comment -
See the recently bumped Black Haze thread and try to figure out where he got that info because we need it againComment -
My best time of the year, usually. When I was a kid, I came in third nationally in a contest. I was a better gambler back then.
Hoping for a good season.Comment -
Glancing at them now but I love the names
Vegas Bowl w/ cougars??
Celebration Bowl
Cure Bowl
Gonna get serious this weekend! Hope to win one or two.Comment
