ncaa week 13 (nov24-26)

[phil_abuster]

turkey day bet
lsu tigers -6.5 __ qb trevor knight is one good hit to his injured shoulder away from leaving the aggies in a deep sinkhole and the tigers defense must surely b aware of that. pressure (or lack thereof) on the aggie qb may b the key here. tigers r more than capable of that. of course the aggies offense knows this too. backup hubenak will b available but hurting too. knights effectiveness includes his running ability but they cant afford to lose him so i dont expect him taking off much. they may b w/o star rb williams too, as well as an ailing secondary. meanwhile tigers being w/o fournette is no biggie since guise is putting up terrific numbers in his place!
of course anything can happen

[phil_abuster]

1-0 this week so far

black friday bets
daabears -5.5 __redraiders suffered an embarrassing 10-66 beat down last week against lowly iowa state. humiliating! bowl eligibility now gonzo! very depressing! but still must drag themselves to the bus for a 4.5 hr drive away to arlington for a neutral site match vs a bowl eligible opp. of course tech will have some diehard loyal fans make the 4.5 hr trip to watch their 4-7 team finish their LOSING season. but i would expect baylor fans - only 1.5 hr drive away - will outnumber the tech fans, ohh, maybe 20 to 1. so there's that. then the fact baylor (6-4) is a better team and still w/ a shot to finish 8-4 and possibly 9-4 after a bowl win! there is reason for motivation for baylor despite losing their mobile starting QB 2 games ago. yes, they lost by 21 pts last week. but it was excusable, as 3 turnovers hurt badly and to a quality opp (ksu), unlike tech's demoralizing faceplant to a 2-8 team. and baylors groundgame was hampered by the absence of their top RB and best backup RB - both of whom return for this one! plus it was freshman qb zack smith's first start - following russell's departure in the game before. while we cant expect a freshman to set the world on fire here, clearly he should be better prepared for this one and he's facing a weaker defense than ksu - now even more questionable w/ injuries to their front 7! tech's offense will b w/o their top RB!
i expect both teams to put up quite a few passing yards and points as the line total of 85 seems accurate - but tech has nothing to play for. blowing bowl eligibility is a HUGE let down. while baylor is motivated and has a better D. i expect baylor to win, likely by a td, maybe cutting it close but i will make adjustments w/ live betting if need b.

[phil_abuster]

1-0 this week so far

black friday bets
daabears -5.5 __redraiders suffered an embarrassing 10-66 beat down last week against lowly iowa state. humiliating! bowl eligibility now gonzo! very depressing! but still must drag themselves to the bus for a 4.5 hr drive away to arlington for a neutral site match vs a bowl eligible opp. of course tech will have some diehard loyal fans make the 4.5 hr trip to watch their 4-7 team finish their LOSING season. but i would expect baylor fans - only 1.5 hr drive away - will outnumber the tech fans, ohh, maybe 20 to 1. so there's that. then the fact baylor (6-4) is a better team and still w/ a shot to finish 8-4 and possibly 9-4 after a bowl win! there is reason for motivation for baylor despite losing their mobile starting QB 2 games ago. yes, they lost by 21 pts last week. but it was excusable, as 3 turnovers hurt badly and to a quality opp (ksu), unlike tech's demoralizing faceplant to a 2-8 team. and baylors groundgame was hampered by the absence of their top RB and best backup RB - both of whom return for this one! plus it was freshman qb zack smith's first start - following russell's departure in the game before. while we cant expect a freshman to set the world on fire here, clearly he should be better prepared for this one and he's facing a weaker defense than ksu - now even more questionable w/ injuries to their front 7! tech's offense will b w/o their top RB!
i expect both teams to put up quite a few passing yards and points as the line total of 85 seems accurate - but tech has nothing to play for. blowing bowl eligibility is a HUGE let down. while baylor is motivated and has a better D. i expect baylor to win, likely by a td, maybe cutting it close but i will make adjustments w/ live betting if need b.

added black friday bets
hawkeyes -2.5 __ would b an even matchup but husker qb is limping and mobility is his game
mustangs -7
sundevils -1.5
razorbacks -7 __missouri has nothing to play for; not much pride in a 3 win season - one of which was against 0-11 delaware state and another win to east.mich. tigers have lost AT HOME to "mediocre opps" georgia, middle tenn, and ky- and the razorbacks r better than all of those! missou was beat down by 26 pts to tennessee last week and in the razorbacks they r facing an equivalent rated opp! razorbacks have had 3 true road games before this. an early win at tcu, a forgiveable beat down at a very strong opp (auburn) and then last week - a full-value 14 pt win at miss st - a much better squad than missouri. arkansas finished last regular season 7-5 - an improvement they have hoped for in their rebuilding - before winning a bowl game. this yr they sit at 7-4. a win over lowly missouri would make it 8-4 and another step forward in their march up the sec ladder. they NEED a win in columbia - and convincingly - and they know it!

[phil_abuster]

looks like hou/mem over 62 would have been a good bet. damn

[phil_abuster]

black friday bets
daabears -5.5 __redraiders suffered an embarrassing 10-66 beat down last week against lowly iowa state. humiliating! bowl eligibility now gonzo! very depressing! but still must drag themselves to the bus for a 4.5 hr drive away to arlington for a neutral site match vs a bowl eligible opp. of course tech will have some diehard loyal fans make the 4.5 hr trip to watch their 4-7 team finish their LOSING season. but i would expect baylor fans - only 1.5 hr drive away - will outnumber the tech fans, ohh, maybe 20 to 1. so there's that. then the fact baylor (6-4) is a better team and still w/ a shot to finish 8-4 and possibly 9-4 after a bowl win! there is reason for motivation for baylor despite losing their mobile starting QB 2 games ago. yes, they lost by 21 pts last week. but it was excusable, as 3 turnovers hurt badly and to a quality opp (ksu), unlike tech's demoralizing faceplant to a 2-8 team. and baylors groundgame was hampered by the absence of their top RB and best backup RB - both of whom return for this one! plus it was freshman qb zack smith's first start - following russell's departure in the game before. while we cant expect a freshman to set the world on fire here, clearly he should be better prepared for this one and he's facing a weaker defense than ksu - now even more questionable w/ injuries to their front 7! tech's offense will b w/o their top RB!
i expect both teams to put up quite a few passing yards and points as the line total of 85 seems accurate - but tech has nothing to play for. blowing bowl eligibility is a HUGE let down. while baylor is motivated and has a better D. i expect baylor to win, likely by a td, maybe cutting it close but i will make adjustments w/ live betting if need b. added black friday bets
hawkeyes -2.5 __ would b an even matchup but husker qb is limping and mobility is his game
mustangs -7
sundevils -1.5
razorbacks -7 __missouri has nothing to play for; not much pride in a 3 win season - one of which was against 0-11 delaware state and another win to east.mich. tigers have lost AT HOME to "mediocre opps" georgia, middle tenn, and ky- and the razorbacks r better than all of those! missou was beat down by 26 pts to tennessee last week and in the razorbacks they r facing an equivalent rated opp! razorbacks have had 3 true road games before this. an early win at tcu, a forgiveable beat down at a very strong opp (auburn) and then last week - a full-value 14 pt win at miss st - a much better squad than missouri. arkansas finished last regular season 7-5 - an improvement they have hoped for in their rebuilding - before winning a bowl game. this yr they sit at 7-4. a win over lowly missouri would make it 8-4 and another step forward in their march up the sec ladder. they NEED a win in columbia - and convincingly - and they know it!

added bets
i dont see the woeful missou tigers mounting any comeback from being outplayed badly in the first half. they arent competitive enough and lack motivation. arkansas wants to keep foot on gas pedal.
2ndHalf razorbacks -3 +100

[phil_abuster]

turkey day bet
lsu tigers -6.5 __ qb trevor knight is one good hit to his injured shoulder away from leaving the aggies in a deep sinkhole and the tigers defense must surely b aware of that. pressure (or lack thereof) on the aggie qb may b the key here. tigers r more than capable of that. of course the aggies offense knows this too. backup hubenak will b available but hurting too. knights effectiveness includes his running ability but they cant afford to lose him so i dont expect him taking off much. they may b w/o star rb williams too, as well as an ailing secondary. meanwhile tigers being w/o fournette is no biggie since guise is putting up terrific numbers in his place!
of course anything can happen


black friday bets
daabears -5.5 __redraiders suffered an embarrassing 10-66 beat down last week against lowly iowa state. humiliating! bowl eligibility now gonzo! very depressing! but still must drag themselves to the bus for a 4.5 hr drive away to arlington for a neutral site match vs a bowl eligible opp. of course tech will have some diehard loyal fans make the 4.5 hr trip to watch their 4-7 team finish their LOSING season. but i would expect baylor fans - only 1.5 hr drive away - will outnumber the tech fans, ohh, maybe 20 to 1. so there's that. then the fact baylor (6-4) is a better team and still w/ a shot to finish 8-4 and possibly 9-4 after a bowl win! there is reason for motivation for baylor despite losing their mobile starting QB 2 games ago. yes, they lost by 21 pts last week. but it was excusable, as 3 turnovers hurt badly and to a quality opp (ksu), unlike tech's demoralizing faceplant to a 2-8 team. and baylors groundgame was hampered by the absence of their top RB and best backup RB - both of whom return for this one! plus it was freshman qb zack smith's first start - following russell's departure in the game before. while we cant expect a freshman to set the world on fire here, clearly he should be better prepared for this one and he's facing a weaker defense than ksu - now even more questionable w/ injuries to their front 7! tech's offense will b w/o their top RB!
i expect both teams to put up quite a few passing yards and points as the line total of 85 seems accurate - but tech has nothing to play for. blowing bowl eligibility is a HUGE let down. while baylor is motivated and has a better D. i expect baylor to win, likely by a td, maybe cutting it close but i will make adjustments w/ live betting if need b. added black friday bets
hawkeyes -2.5 __ would b an even matchup but husker qb is limping and mobility is his game
mustangs -7
sundevils -1.5
razorbacks -7 __missouri has nothing to play for; not much pride in a 3 win season - one of which was against 0-11 delaware state and another win to east.mich. tigers have lost AT HOME to "mediocre opps" georgia, middle tenn, and ky- and the razorbacks r better than all of those! missou was beat down by 26 pts to tennessee last week and in the razorbacks they r facing an equivalent rated opp! razorbacks have had 3 true road games before this. an early win at tcu, a forgiveable beat down at a very strong opp (auburn) and then last week - a full-value 14 pt win at miss st - a much better squad than missouri. arkansas finished last regular season 7-5 - an improvement they have hoped for in their rebuilding - before winning a bowl game. this yr they sit at 7-4. a win over lowly missouri would make it 8-4 and another step forward in their march up the sec ladder. they NEED a win in columbia - and convincingly - and they know it!

added bets
i dont see the woeful missou tigers mounting any comeback from being outplayed badly in the first half. they arent competitive enough and lack motivation. arkansas wants to keep foot on gas pedal.
2ndHalf razorbacks -3 +100

added rivalry week bets:

msu bulldogs +10 __ Line rising on rivalry game fav!! a rebel team w/o their hiesman candidate QB; msu bulldogs were competitive this yr despite their deceptive 4-7 record....they did not lose to a loser team. they lost 3 games by 3 or less - 2 on the road - and another road game went into ot. ole miss is coming off a 21 pt LOSS to vandy - who is certainly no better than the bulldogs! rebels 10 pt victory at home to weakling georgia southern 3 wks ago was unimpressive. since the dogs r singing this week i like the bulldogs at least to cover +10 here in a revenge match

auburn +18 __ i dont see an upset here although lest we forget its happened before!! but a good case can be made for a competitive squad making a game of it and maybe putting a scare into a 3 score fav

buckeyes -5 __ beaten wolverines the past 4 yrs; qb speight will play hurt; michigan's LOSS at iowa and then a pedestrian 10 pt win at home over mediocre 5-6 Indiana is unimpressive for recent play! meanwhile buckeyes whacked nebraska 62-3, then repeated the same rout 62-3 on the road at mediocre 5-6 maryland before squeaking out a win - also on the road - at sparty. i have to give a solid edge in recent play to osu.

[phil_abuster]

added rivalry week matchup between bantamweights: monachs and the golden panthers,
monarchs -13.5

[phil_abuster]

hokies -18
yellow jackets +5

[phil_abuster]

ucf +12

[phil_abuster]

btw, for the first time in a very long time
the lines just seemed particularly tempting so
most of my bets were actually part of a parlay
to avoid losing a small fortune
i am relying on most of these heavy favs to win outright
as i selected several of them on the ML as part of the parlays
if any ONE of these 3 score favs fails to win i lose big $$ today

louisville -26.5 (-2400)
v.tech -17.5 (-850)
k. state -26 (-3300)
pitts -25 (-2400)
usc -17.5 (-800)
clemson -25 (-2100)

[phil_abuster]

wow.
extremely rare
a 4 score home fav loses outright just when they were getting set up for the game winning fg
u have no idea how many thousands that turnover just cost me
due to bet limits ill need multiple large bet wins to recover, starting w/trojans then clemson
oy vey, not a happy camper