Betting against public opinion - revisited

[QuantumLeap]

Well that WMU didn't turn out like I had hoped. I keep saying I'm not going to bet these shit conferences because not enough money is bet to make a difference. Then I see they are on a Thursday or Friday night.

With that being said, going with:

SJSU +31 1/2 over Boise St

Line moved all week the way it should. BSU is the public favorite.

[QuantumLeap]

Boise has been living off of their reputation the past couple of years. They are still good but not nearly as good as when Peterson was the coach.

Especially at home, as strange as that may seem.

[readytowinem]

Damn i was bored and tried that cmu with...ughhh. it was like watching the bad news bears.

Should of did the san jose state. At leaat i would of had a chance lol

[QuantumLeap]

Damn i was bored and tried that cmu with...ughhh. it was like watching the bad news bears.

Should of did the san jose state. At leaat i would of had a chance lol

Yeah, sorry about that one. The rule for these smaller conferences is for me to not bet them unless they're solo games late at night. The reasoning behind it is if they are early like this (and Ball State) and share a time spot with another game there just isn't enough money bet on them to make a difference. The lines can be moved with less money, whereas when there is a lot of money on games like Okla/Iowa St and the late game tonight, it's harder to move the line with dumb money. Instead, line movements like the ones I follow are because of a lot of square money and the books play into it.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm pretty impressed with the SJSU rush defense. That was what did them in during previous games where they were blown out. But then again, Boise isn't known as a great rushing team.

I'm pretty happy with the calls of some of the games: Buffalo from last week, Iowa State, UCLA and now SJSU. If I can fine-tune these games I think I might have something.

I'm going to take credit for the Iowa State call even though it was in-game. Here's the tally so far:

Ball State - Loss
Iowa State - Win
UCLA - Win
WMU - Loss
SJSU - Win

3-2 so far this week.

Saturdays games will be major conferences except maybe the late games when money comes in from people chasing from earlier games.

[QuantumLeap]

OK, not many of you know I have OCD which means I can't stop crunching numbers and looking at games. I thought I would use this as a placeholder to keep track of games I liked tonight.

Looking at the following for Saturday:
Navy
Northwestern
Rutgers
Vandy?
Oregon St
Oregon
Nebraska
Cal

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I like northwestern out of that group, they have been playing well and I think they might win outright

not sure I'd fade Washington right now...I think they might try and make a statement after getting snubbed in the initial playoff rankings

[QuantumLeap]

I like northwestern out of that group, they have been playing well and I think they might win outright

not sure I'd fade Washington right now...I think they might try and make a statement after getting snubbed in the initial playoff rankings

Thanks for the input Jake. As far as trying to make sense out of these, I just look for line movement and what I think is a public favorite and fade the favorite. Like Boise last night. People were thinking Boise would come out motivated after their first loss so they could get a higher ranking. They won the game but didn't put in the effort.

[QuantumLeap]

Navy +7 1/2

[QuantumLeap]

Illinois +9 1/2 over MSU

Previously I said I wasn't going to provide an explanation but this one is a little out of the ordinary with Michigan St having such a poor record 2-6) and being the public favorite. I'm thinking it's their recent good performance against Michigan that has the public all over MSU.

[shadymcgrady]

Rutgers could be decent with the benching of the garbage qb 3 weeks ago they've been moving the ball. The new qb however turns it over

[QuantumLeap]

Rutgers could be decent with the benching of the garbage qb 3 weeks ago they've been moving the ball. The new qb however turns it over

Yeah, I was looking at them especially after they did so well last week. The line was just too much back-and-forth for me to take. They are looking good so far.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Check out Arizona line against Washington st

[QuantumLeap]

Check out Arizona line against Washington st

Thanks Obama. Seems to be going opposite of what I'm tracking. Any ideas?

[QuantumLeap]

The first 2 games looking good. Plenty of time left to play in the Illinois game though.

Syracuse +28 over Clemson
Oregon St +17 over Stanfor
Purdue +18 1/2 over Minnesota (this is a classic fit)

I'm tempted to take Fresno St +17 but I think I'll pass because I don't believe there's a lot of money going to be bet on that game.

[gojetsgomoxies]

cal has shown no ability to stop anything.......... and washington is completely on fire both rush and pass. only counter-argument is washington may start tightening up at some point here but i think that would be against better team - like next 2 weeks at home vs. USC and ASU.

[QuantumLeap]

Rutgers could be decent with the benching of the garbage qb 3 weeks ago they've been moving the ball. The new qb however turns it over

Nice call on the Rutgers cover.

[QuantumLeap]

OK, not many of you know I have OCD which means I can't stop crunching numbers and looking at games. I thought I would use this as a placeholder to keep track of games I liked tonight.

Looking at the following for Saturday:
Navy
Northwestern
Rutgers
Vandy?
Oregon St
Oregon
Nebraska
Cal

NOT going with Oregon. Most probably going with Nebraska and Cal. Will post those picks closer to game time.

[QuantumLeap]

4-1 so far today.

Going with:

Nebraska +17 1/2 over Ohio St

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

Cal +19 1/2 over Washington

I almost went with Nevada +15 because it's a late game so I thought more money would be bet on it but I just decided to pass. We'll see how that turns out.

[QuantumLeap]

OK, not many of you know I have OCD which means I can't stop crunching numbers and looking at games. I thought I would use this as a placeholder to keep track of games I liked tonight.

Looking at the following for Saturday:
Navy
Northwestern
Rutgers
Vandy?
Oregon St
Oregon
Nebraska
Cal

Just wanted to make a note on the Vandy game. The line went from 24 1/2 to 25 1/2 up to 26 1/2 but 2 hours before the game started it reversed to 25 so I laid off. Just 2 minutes before the game started it dropped to 22 1/2. Game ended 23-16 Auburn.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

Cal +19 1/2 over Washington

I almost went with Nevada +15 because it's a late game so I thought more money would be bet on it but I just decided to pass. We'll see how that turns out.

Nevada still hanging it at 7-7 in the 2nd.

[QuantumLeap]

Ball State - Loss
Iowa State - Win
UCLA - Win
WMU - Loss
SJSU - Win

Navy - Win

Illinois - Win

Syracuse - Loss

Oregon St - Win

Purdue - Win

Nebraska - Loss

Cal - Loss

This week: 7-5

Weird week. I was able to identify some great underdog covers but others just fell flat. I may need to put more emphasis on late Saturday games as Nevada is looking to cover as well even though I didn't pick them. It's fun to pick teams that go against big public favorites and cover.

[gojetsgomoxies]

in the spirit of slice/dice,

you lost on 1) MAC conference - many say it's strangest results of any conference, not sure that's true; 2) non-saturday games - see #1 as they are MAC games; 3) fading dominant teams - i lost on this too, michigan/alabama/washington/ohio state/louisville/clemson all covered, all of them easily but alabama.

[gojetsgomoxies]

you won on mediocre big 5 teams.

i'm thinking you won on teams the public "went against" and lost fading teams the public "tailed hard"

[gojetsgomoxies]

i was wrong on #2... you didn't lose on non-saturday games.