CFB – Week 8 Plays

Dr Nostron · 10-20-16, 10:24 AM

Man the Syracuse line stinks - laying 4.5 with a team that cant score (BC?)

Seems too easy

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Dr Nostron

Man the Syracuse line stinks - laying 4.5 with a team that cant score (BC?)

Seems too easy

Maybe books are banking on letdown after Va Tech win? Still seems like an over-adjustment though.

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 11:35 AM

1 CFB Addition THURSDAY

THURSDAY, 10/20
South Alabama +9 -103 (5 Dimes)

FRIDAY, 10/21
South Florida -6.5 -110 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 10/22
Syracuse +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

reigle9 · 10-20-16, 01:09 PM

BC t-9 in D ypp.

HeeluvaGuy · 10-20-16, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

BC t-9 in D ypp.

Not a flame, just a comment for discussion...

I believe that stat needs some context. You're right that BC's D YPP is quite good at 4.4. However, the offenses they have faced are averaging just 5.1 YPP. The teams averaging 5.1 YPP on offense are tied for 105th in the nation in that stat. So while on the one hand, it is quite good that BC is holding teams below their season average in YPP, the absolute number and ranking are a tad misleading.

Interestingly, BC is dead last in defensive YPPT.

reigle9 · 10-20-16, 05:25 PM

Your stat is better than mine. Good stuff.

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 05:46 PM

1 Last CFB Addition THURSDAY

THURSDAY, 10/20
South Alabama +9 -103 (5 Dimes)
BYU / Boise State UNDER 58 -101 (5 Dimes)

FRIDAY, 10/21
South Florida -6.5 -110 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 10/22
Syracuse +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

TPowell · 10-20-16, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Maybe books are banking on letdown after Va Tech win? Still seems like an over-adjustment though.

nope, Syracuse is just hot garbage that got a lucky win against a team with their head in the sky after getting ranked (VT). Cuse is easily the worst team in the ACC outside of Wake Forest (by just a touch)

JayDr3am · 10-21-16, 12:50 AM

now i know why you only make weekly threads lol

coitus_maximus · 10-21-16, 07:12 AM

On the exact opposite. Syracuse coming off a high with 25mph winds in Boston and off a Bye week. No way. Syracuse gets taken to the wood shed here. Temple should be close also vs. USF IMO. Home game and Temple should be on the run game. USF not that great of a run D. I see a TD or less for sure.

LT Profits · 10-21-16, 07:18 AM

Nice 2-0 start to the week.

LT Profits · 10-21-16, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

nope, Syracuse is just hot garbage that got a lucky win against a team with their head in the sky after getting ranked (VT). Cuse is easily the worst team in the ACC outside of Wake Forest (by just a touch)

With all of that being said, model only has Boston College -2.75. Simply cannot give 4.5 with BC offense.

LT Profits · 10-21-16, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

now i know why you only make weekly threads lol

What is your point? I have ALWAYS done NFL and CFB threads weekly since the inception of SBR. The only rime I do continuous threads in any sport is for Playoffs/Bowls. I simply cannot stand 40-page threads.

TPowell · 10-21-16, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

With all of that being said, model only has Boston College -2.75. Simply cannot give 4.5 with BC offense.

So you think Syracuse is the better team....?

LT Profits · 10-21-16, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

So you think Syracuse is the better team....?

Basically equal, Syracuse rated a smidgeon higher by +0.46 points

Snake24 · 10-21-16, 10:12 AM

LT, what do get for the Ducks/Bears game? Side and Total. Thanks.

LT Profits · 10-21-16, 10:13 AM

CFB Additions Friday & Saturday

FRIDAY, 10/21
South Florida -6.5 -110 (Heritage)
Oregon / California OVER 89 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 10/22
Syracuse +4.5 -105 (Heritage)
Colorado +2 -110 (Heritage)

YTD: 35-35-1, -1.32

I would have played Colorado ML at bare minimum of +106, but I saw no better than +105 so opted for the +2 at Heritage with everyone else at +1.5.

Also, Oregon/Cal game broke my model.

Translatiion: model predicts over 100 points (100.78 to be exact).

LT Profits · 10-21-16, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Snake24

LT, what do get for the Ducks/Bears game? Side and Total. Thanks.

Almost simultaneous post. For Side I get Cal -2.38, so not much to see there.

Snake24 · 10-21-16, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Almost simultaneous post. For Side I get Cal -2.38, so not much to see there.

haha. Thanks, LT.

HeeluvaGuy · 10-21-16, 11:06 AM

I have a lot of agreement with LT this week, including a 101.1 total for the Oregon/Cal game. Hope that's not a bad thing for you.

Good luck

RavensFan2k3 · 10-21-16, 08:45 PM

You should stop betting favorites LT

HeeluvaGuy · 10-22-16, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I have a lot of agreement with LT this week, including a 101.1 total for the Oregon/Cal game. Hope that's not a bad thing for you.

Good luck

That doesn't happen often, so I'll enjoy this one.

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 06:47 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

That doesn't happen often, so I'll enjoy this one.

I almost had the exact score, model had 51.58-49.20

(Let's not talk about the assist from Overtime

)

jimminn · 10-22-16, 06:57 AM

Yea all they had to do is hit that field goal at the end and I would have won. Such is football.

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by jimminn

Yea all they had to do is hit that field goal at the end and I would have won. Such is football.

Yeah I DEFINITELY got lucky, Under bettors got shafted.

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 10:22 AM

3 CFB Additions Saturday

SATURDAY, 10/22
Kansas +23.5 -105 (Heritage)
Massachusetts / South Carolina UNDER 46 -105 (5 Dimes)
Syracuse +4.5 -105 (Heritage)
Syracuse / Boston College UNDER 50 -103 (5 Dimes)
Colorado +2 -110 (Heritage)

YTD: 36-36-1, -1.42

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 12:26 PM

2 More CBB Additions

SATURDAY, 10/22
Kansas +23.5 -105 (Heritage)
Massachusetts / South Carolina UNDER 46 -105 (5 Dimes)
Syracuse +4.5 -105 (Heritage)
Syracuse / Boston College UNDER 50 -103 (5 Dimes)
Colorado +2 -110 (Heritage)
TCU / West Virginia UNDER 63.5 -105 (Heritage)
Utah +6.5 -105 (Heritage)

JayDr3am · 10-22-16, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

What is your point? I have ALWAYS done NFL and CFB threads weekly since the inception of SBR. The only rime I do continuous threads in any sport is for Playoffs/Bowls. I simply cannot stand 40-page threads.

my point is that im slowly starting to hate 40 page threads myself lol i may take a page out of your book

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 02:53 PM

Yet Another 2 CFB Additions

SATURDAY, 10/22
Kansas +23.5 -105 (Heritage)
Massachusetts / South Carolina UNDER 46 -105 (5 Dimes)
Syracuse +4.5 -105 (Heritage)
Syracuse / Boston College UNDER 50 -103 (5 Dimes)
Colorado +2 -110 (Heritage)
TCU / West Virginia UNDER 63.5 -105 (Heritage)
Utah +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
Utah / UCLA UNDER 43 -105 (Heritage)
Arkansas / Auburn UNDER 55 -110 (Heritage)