College Football Picks: Week 8

[maddog4040]

For those that have not followed me long, below is a bit more into my background.


This is my first time ever posting NCAAF or giving out NCAAF picks to the mass public. However, by no means am I a beginner. MY first time ever posting picks (of any kind) was this past NCAAB season (2015-16). I posted picks on the NCAAB SBR forum and my record 37 Wins / 27 Losses / 1 Ties / 65 Total Picks / 57.81 win percentage.

For those that have been following me closely, the below you have already heard lol.

I have developed a proprietary sports system based on strong statistical indicators that comb through all the Over/Under Bet Lines in a matter of seconds. I have been tracking my picks for couple years now. The system has shown great results (very profitable) for picking Over and Under Totals.

Each week I will post these picks that have a proven track record to win in the long run.


I will end the conversation here, as talk is cheap and I want my pick results to speak for themselves.

[maddog4040]

OVER Combined Totals Pick(s):
Thursday, October 20, 2016	Miami Florida	Virginia Tech	51.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Central Michigan	Toledo	63.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Hawaii	Air Force	62.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Buffalo U	Northern Illinois	58.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Memphis	Navy	56.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	UTEP	Texas San Antonio	47.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Arkansas	Auburn	55.50
UNDER Combined Totals Pick(s):
Thursday, October 20, 2016	Troy	South Alabama	49.00
Friday, October 21, 2016	South Florida	Temple	60.50
Friday, October 21, 2016	San Jose State	San Diego State	48.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Syracuse	Boston College	50.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	East Carolina	Cincinnati U	61.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Purdue	Nebraska	61.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Oklahoma State	Kansas U	62.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Wisconsin	Iowa	41.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Akron	Ball State	59.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	UL Lafayette	Texas State	61.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Houston U	SMU	63.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Tulane	Tulsa	53.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Miami Ohio	Bowling Green	55.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Mississippi State	Kentucky	54.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Ohio State	Penn State	59.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016	Texas A&M	Alabama	58.50

[maddog4040]

For those who think there are too many picks/plays.


Consider this:


I do hear you and understand however my system does not automatically cherry pick the top games (nor do I want it to). That would be more of a manual effort/add human element. To be honest, I designed this system to guard against human emotions etc.. I could take these picks and narrow them down to 10. Lets say I did this and I lose 50% (5/10) of these picks. Then the remaining picks (13) go (8/13). At this point all picks combined went 56.5% (13/23). Overall, cherry picking 10 leaves me with a loss BUT staying the course/playing all picks leaves me with a profit/money in the bank! NOTE this scenario is not absurd or unlikely...it's very very likely. In short, to maximize profit, taking action on all plays is the way to go.


Further, I would advise people to take action based on how much they put down each week, month, etc for NCAAF. So if somebody is putting down $200 each week and I have 50 picks each week, then play $100 amongst 50 picks ($2 a pick). With this approach, basically the number of picks doesn't matter and can still accomplish the goal of playing $200 (unless bookie doesn't accept wagers of $1 or $2...that's another problem and can be solved by finding another bookie) . Now I will say, playing $2 a pick IS NOT SEXY (I REALLY DO GET THAT) BUT WHO CARES/ignore it...the REALITY is you just threw down $200/your max for the week! That's SEXY!

[maddog4040]

I will also post individual over under line picks once they are available. For those who don't know, books usually post on game day. If I have any picks, would be posted Thursday.

NOTE - if anyone knows of books posting earlier than on game day...please let me know lol

[PackerBacker]

Maddog, thanks for posting. Looking forward to playing along and watching to see your results.

[Alright Alright]

祝你好运 - zhu ni hao yun - good luck maddog!

[maddog4040]

Looks like I got my wish…early individual lines.


OVER Individual Totals Picks(s):
Thursday, October 20, 2016 Troy 28.00

UNDER Individual Totals Picks(s):
Thursday, October 20, 2016 Virginia Tech 29.00

[maddog4040]

ONE MORE PICK

UNDER Combined Totals Pick(s):
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Utah UCLA 46

[JTrain]

What is your past CFB record with this?

[JTrain]

Does your table in post two show the system's predictions or the actual lines?

[maddog4040]

ONE MORE PICK:


UNDER Combined Totals Pick(s):


Saturday, October 22, 2016 Ohio Kent State 46.00

[maddog4040]

This week is my first time to ever go public with NCAAF picks. I emphasize this, as all picks or records I have without you all knowing is IRRELEVANT. Note this is my opinion buy I feel strongly about this. I've been scouring the web for years now for TRUE transparency amongst the ELITE handicappers/pickers/whatever you want to call them. Many are not fully transparent. I HATE THIS and DESPISE THEM. If you are as good as you say you are...show me your ENTIRE RECORD. The record should be public and independently verified. Sad part is many also charge people and THEY LOSE! Crazy...they pump you up with all this fluffy language and then then turn around and LOSE!

This being said, if I tell you ANYTHING...I was 240/400 (60% win) or 160/400 (40% win)...I would ignore this...COMPLETELY. If somebody told me this and I could not independently verify this information...I'm instantly thinking they are lying or not being truthful. Why should I believe anything different?

I fundamentally believe in transparency to the UTMOST.

Apologize for the ramble lol.

In short, NOTHING MATTERS but the results you see with your own eyes. What I have done in the comfort and privacy offline/with no public to see, judge, verify or confirm is IRRELEVANT.

[maddog4040]

Jtrain - All picks/posts use actual lines. I will not say what bookie/source as I'm not in the business of promoting that. I also think may be against forum rules....not really sure but rather not say...don't want to be banned

Note if you feel they are not actual lines...please let me know your thoughts and I can try to bridge the gap. I know they are bc I literally pull straight from the bookie website. But I can see somebody being skeptical...especially if I post under 60 and 3 to 5 minutes after posting it is now Under 57 or Under 58...huge movement in short period of time but can really occur. Most times this won't happen but it can.

[maddog4040]

Today's Individual Line Picks:




OVER Individual Totals Picks(s):
Friday, October 21, 2016 South Florida 33.00

UNDER Individual Totals Picks(s):
Friday, October 21, 2016 Temple 26.50
Friday, October 21, 2016 California 45.50
Friday, October 21, 2016 San Diego State 35.50

[maddog4040]

OVER Individual Totals Picks(s):
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Eastern Michigan 18.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Syracuse 23.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Purdue 18.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Louisiana Tech 41.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Hawaii 22.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Idaho 16.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Washington State 35.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Texas 27.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Colorado 24.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Middle Tennessee State 33.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Mississippi 26.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Arkansas 22.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Texas A&M 21.00

[maddog4040]

UNDER Individual Totals Picks(s):

Saturday, October 22, 2016 North Carolina 39.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 UL Lafayette 35.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Charlotte 24.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Oklahoma 49.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Houston U 42.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Miami Ohio 24.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Mississippi State 28.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 UTEP 18.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Georgia Southern 39.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Colorado State 27.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Rutgers 14.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Army 33.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Boston College 27.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Cincinnati U 33.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Iowa 19.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Virginia 28.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Ball State 32.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Florida International 24.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Texas State 30.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Appalachian State 37.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 South Carolina 33.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 New Mexico 39.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Kent State 21.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Arizona State 28.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Michigan 46.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 SMU 20.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Tulsa 32.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Washington U 44.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Bowling Green 27.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Kansas State 26.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Missouri 40.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Penn State 18.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Alabama 39.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Utah State 34.00
Saturday, October 22, 2016 Minnesota U 31.50
Saturday, October 22, 2016 UCLA 26.00

[maddog4040]

Alrighty! My inaugural first week is in the books. Sooooo glad lol. Jitter bugs have gone away. From week to week you just never know what will happen. Will you fall flat on your face or will you hit it out of the park?
Below is a recap of the NCAAF week 8 picks by category. You will notice some picks did good/profitable. Overall, there was a small net loss (win% of 50.65%, break even for standard -110 line is 52.38%). Nothing here that will get me too low or too high. But I'll be honest, I wanted the first ever week of posting to be profitable more than anything, even if just slightly! There’s just something about starting on a high note! I will say I did get lucky with my first time ever posting picks (NCAAB as previously mentioned) and within the first week, was profitable and never lost a dime!
But that was months ago lol and the time is NOW! Didn’t get as lucky with NCAAF but I guess it's fitting, as I can't win every week. I can promise you…I’ve tried! With random crap happening in games, it’s just flat out impossible. Those that say otherwise…you should run/not follow because they are telling bold face lies!
I do look forward to next week, and the next, all the way to the end of the regular season! The beauty of all my plays will be time itself. Those seasoned individuals who have been taking action for a while know the real test is how well you can do over the long haul! I personally think if you can’t be profitable each season, by sport then it’s just not good. Simple as that. Profitable by season will be the expectation here!
Hope you all continue to monitor and independently verify these results yourselves. Once they meet your definition of success, do with these picks as you please!
Note the pick categories below (Over Combined, Over Individual, Under Combined, and Under Individual) are designed to stand on their own! What does this mean? By the end of each season, each category should be profitable. Of course time will tell but for those who are curious now, this is how I designed the system. With this being said, if you only care to look at or take action on one or just two of the categories (as opposed to all four), that should be profitable as well.
One more note, I do have a system for spreads and money lines but these systems are still in the infant stages and I need bigger sample sizes to validate the data. I got a late start (initially focused on over and under only).

[maddog4040]

	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Total Picks
OVER - COMBINED TOTALS:	4	3	0	57.14%	7
OVER - INDIVIDUAL TOTALS:	7	7	1	50.00%	15
OVER - CUMULATIVE RESULTS:	11	10	1	52.38%	22
UNDER - COMBINED TOTALS:	10	7	1	58.82%	18
UNDER - INDIVIDUAL TOTALS:	18	21	1	46.15%	40
UNDER - CUMULATIVE RESULTS:	28	28	2	50.00%	58
OVERALL RESULTS FOR ALL PICKS:	39	38	3	50.65%	80