Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State (October 5th, 2016)

[AJisKewl]

For our first Wednesday college football game of the year, we have Georgia Southern (3-1) @ Arkansas State (0-4). In recent years, these two teams have consistently been some of the more competitive teams in the Sun Belt Conference. It appears that trend may be changing this year, as Arkansas State has started off 0-4.

This season, Arkansas State has been relying solely on big plays to score. They have yet to record a scoring drive exceeding 6 plays. On the defensive side, Arkansas State has shown a major weakness in their run defense. This team allows 239 rushing yards/game, ranking them at 117th in FBS. Last week Arkansas State lost at home to Central Arkansas (an FCS team!).

Georgia Southern comes into this game averaging 318 yards/game on the ground (4th in FBS). Clearly, this team wants to pound the run and take control of time of possession. Defensively, they allow a total of 306 yards/game (16th in FBS), making them a relatively stout defense . Georgia Southern lost @ W. Michigan last week in a hard fought battle where they committed 4 turnovers and couldn't play their standard run game.

Bottom Line: Georgia Southern should run through this Ark St. defense like butter. If Ark St can't sustain a drive and they allow Georgia Southern to score early, Georgia Southern will dominate the time of possession and win this game by double digits.

The Pick: Georgia Southern -7 (Many books now posting at -7.5, buy the hook if you need to)

[BigdaddyQH]

If Georgia Southern will win by double digits, why bother buying the hook, which anyone who knows anything about football wagering knows is a sucker wager.

[ChiTownTeaBagger]

For our first Wednesday college football game of the year, we have Georgia Southern (3-1) @ Arkansas State (0-4). In recent years, these two teams have consistently been some of the more competitive teams in the Sun Belt Conference. It appears that trend may be changing this year, as Arkansas State has started off 0-4.

This season, Arkansas State has been relying solely on big plays to score. They have yet to record a scoring drive exceeding 6 plays. On the defensive side, Arkansas State has shown a major weakness in their run defense. This team allows 239 rushing yards/game, ranking them at 117th in FBS. Last week Arkansas State lost at home to Central Arkansas (an FCS team!).

Georgia Southern comes into this game averaging 318 yards/game on the ground (4th in FBS). Clearly, this team wants to pound the run and take control of time of possession. Defensively, they allow a total of 306 yards/game (16th in FBS), making them a relatively stout defense . Georgia Southern lost @ W. Michigan last week in a hard fought battle where they committed 4 turnovers and couldn't play their standard run game.

Bottom Line: Georgia Southern should run through this Ark St. defense like butter. If Ark St can't sustain a drive and they allow Georgia Southern to score early, Georgia Southern will dominate the time of possession and win this game by double digits.

The Pick: Georgia Southern -7 (Many books now posting at -7.5, buy the hook if you need to)

Reminds me of what Saban had to say about Georgia Southern a year ago

[mohye1980]

If Georgia Southern will win by double digits, why bother buying the hook, which anyone who knows anything about football wagering knows is a sucker wager.

Wait. Are you calling someone a sucker cuz he's buying half a point for 10 bucks?

Are you not the idiot that bets -750 ml bets ?

[Codyodom]

Wednesday football

With u on Georgia St

[JayDr3am]

Wait. Are you calling someone a sucker cuz he's buying half a point for 10 bucks?

Are you not the idiot that bets -750 ml bets ?

mohye im glad you said it so i didnt have to

[jaydiz21]

I'm on it too at -7 guess I'm a sucker for the hook too oh well

[Ralphie Halves]

which anyone who knows anything about football wagering knows

If you would just stop doing this part right here...

[ChiTownTeaBagger]

With u on Georgia St

So.*

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Wait. Are you calling someone a sucker cuz he's buying half a point for 10 bucks?

Are you not the idiot that bets -750 ml bets ?

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

I like Ark. St. to keep this one close. 31-27

[RGG]

Georgia Southern by 20

[LT Profits]

Georgia Southern actually looks good here, they would be a good bet even if this wasn't a weeknight isolated game. I bet GASO -7.5, no need to buy anything.

[jeffchitown]

I made this my biggest bet so far in college football this year with about $300 riding on this game.

[blap10]

I took Georgia Southern -8. BOL

[TPowell]

Arkansas State +8 here. Last 2 games ARK State should have won more than likely SU and didn't. My pre-season numbers had Arkansas State -5 in this spot and yes they've struggled this season to a degree but NO WAY they are this big of a dog at home.

[LT Profits]

Arkansas State +8 here. Last 2 games ARK State should have won more than likely SU and didn't. My pre-season numbers had Arkansas State -5 in this spot and yes they've struggled this season to a degree but NO WAY they are this big of a dog at home.

I disagree, Arkansas State is simply not a good team this season, they cannot run (atypical of them) and cannot stop the run. I actually think GaSo is undervalued with this line being in single-digits, I rate them about 13 points better than ASU on a neutral field, which should make them -10 on road.

[TPowell]

I disagree, Arkansas State is simply not a good team this season, they cannot run (atypical of them) and cannot stop the run. I actually think GaSo is undervalued with this line being in single-digits, I rate them about 13 points better than ASU on a neutral field, which should make them -10 on road.

So I'm curious how many points better you have GaSo than Utah State. Arky State was only +9.5 on the road in that game and
had that game covered until a TD from Utah State in the last minute of the game. At home, Arky State would be around a 1.5 point dog in that same spot and I'd argue that the line was off a couple points at least. Unless you have GaSo 10+ points better than Utah State, I don't see how you come up with that number.

[AJisKewl]

Arkansas State +8 here. Last 2 games ARK State should have won more than likely SU and didn't. My pre-season numbers had Arkansas State -5 in this spot and yes they've struggled this season to a degree but NO WAY they are this big of a dog at home.

The matchup is what's important here. Arky St hasn't stopped anything on the ground all season. GaSo's strength is pounding the ground game all day and eating up clock.

I've seen people talking about strength of schedule...GaSo just lost to a VERY good W. Michigan team on the road where they committed 4 turnovers and gave up 2 D/ST touchdowns. Contrast that with Arky St's recent outing - they couldn't put away an FCS team at home and got beat with time of possession. In fact, every game they've lost the war for time of possession. Arky St can't run the ball for shit either....ran the ball 34 times for a total of 45 yards when playing Central Arkansas. GaSo's run defense > Arky St rushing offense.

I was very surprised to see the opening line at -7. I think we're gearing up for GaSo rushing for over 300 yards...

[TPowell]

The matchup is what's important here. Arky St hasn't stopped anything on the ground all season. GaSo's strength is pounding the ground game all day and eating up clock.

I've seen people talking about strength of schedule...GaSo just lost to a VERY good W. Michigan team on the road where they committed 4 turnovers and gave up 2 D/ST touchdowns. Contrast that with Arky St's recent outing - they couldn't put away an FCS team at home and got beat with time of possession. In fact, every game they've lost the war for time of possession. Arky St can't run the ball for shit either....ran the ball 34 times for a total of 45 yards when playing Central Arkansas. GaSo's run defense > Arky St rushing offense.

I was very surprised to see the opening line at -7. I think we're gearing up for GaSo rushing for over 300 yards...

you just cherry picked VERY BADLY there. I'll leave it at that

[AJisKewl]

you just cherry picked VERY BADLY there. I'll leave it at that

Cherry pick any stats you want man - all the signs will still point to GaSo cruising tonight.


There's still time to change or hedge your bet.

[TPowell]

Cherry pick any stats you want man - all the signs will still point to GaSo cruising tonight.


There's still time to change or hedge your bet.

All the signs outside of the fact that unless this is the worst Arky State team in 10+ years, this line is WAY off. Hard to believe people can't see both sides to every game on the board. That's a bad sign IMO

[jtoler]

Imma wait a little never know, tards might push it to 10. Ark. St. cant run which is what is scary, also time of possession, they can pass a little though, Ga. Southern can run but not like past years. Ark. St. coach better and more experienced, havent won a game yet this season and is hungry for 1st win to open up conference play. Theyve played much better competition also. Yards/pt also favors Ga. So. but Im banking on Arky. St. to keep this closer than expected, I want 10 though.

[JayDr3am]

Imma wait a little never know, tards might push it to 10. Ark. St. cant run which is what is scary, also time of possession, they can pass a little though, Ga. Southern can run but not like past years. Ark. St. coach better and more experienced, havent won a game yet this season and is hungry for 1st win to open up conference play. Theyve played much better competition also. Yards/pt also favors Ga. So. but Im banking on Arky. St. to keep this closer than expected, I want 10 though.

exactly what i was thinking.. i would need atleast 10 or more to even think about ark state at this point.. they are inept in every aspect currently

[TPowell]

Must admit I jumped too soon at 7.5 but I'll def add more if it hits 9.5 and I can buy to 10 potentially.

[jeffchitown]

you just cherry picked VERY BADLY there. I'll leave it at that

Is he wrong go look up all the rankings. I did and see a team that out ranks in all offensive categories over ark state and then on the flip side an defense from ark state that is one of the worst in the country. Also, Inference doesn't exist in sports betting I'm told so using the argument so and so team almost beat this team because they are better must mean they will do well against this other team. Where as we should consider the strength of that team schedule only but more importantly stats. You can also look up and see that Georgia So is higher rank then ark. I think you need to look at stat matchup here and georgia is the winner. The only way ark state wins is cause its at home and they are dying for their first win. It is possible they will just have more heart in the game although..... Ark state does have these injuries to deal with which if you notice Weh Weh is why they probably have been bad in their rushing offense this year. Also if christian booker is out again he is averaging 11.7 yards per catch.

Christian Booker	WR	10/3	Knee	QUESTIONABLE	Booker missed the last game with a knee injury and is uncertain to play Wednesday against Georgia Southern.
Johnston White	RB	10/2	Hamstring	QUESTIONABLE	White is nursing an injured hamstring and it is unknown if he will play Wednesday against Georgia Southern.
Griffin Riggs	DE	9/20	Groin	OUT	Riggs has a groin injury and is without a timetable for return.
Armond Weh-Weh	RB	9/12	Knee	OUT	Weh-Weh sustained an ACL injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

[TPowell]

Is he wrong go look up all the rankings. I did and see a team that out ranks in all offensive categories over ark state and then on the flip side an defense from ark state that is one of the worst in the country. Also, Inference doesn't exist in sports betting I'm told so using the argument so and so team almost beat this team because they are better must mean they will do well against this other team. Where as we should consider the strength of that team schedule only but more importantly stats. You can also look up and see that Georgia So is higher rank then ark. I think you need to look at stat matchup here and georgia is the winner. The only way ark state wins is cause its at home and they are dying for their first win. It is possible they will just have more heart in the game although..... Ark state does have these injuries to deal with which if you notice Weh Weh is why they probably have been bad in their rushing offense this year. Also if christian booker is out again he is averaging 11.7 yards per catch.

Christian Booker	WR	10/3	Knee	QUESTIONABLE	Booker missed the last game with a knee injury and is uncertain to play Wednesday against Georgia Southern.
Johnston White	RB	10/2	Hamstring	QUESTIONABLE	White is nursing an injured hamstring and it is unknown if he will play Wednesday against Georgia Southern.
Griffin Riggs	DE	9/20	Groin	OUT	Riggs has a groin injury and is without a timetable for return.
Armond Weh-Weh	RB	9/12	Knee	OUT	Weh-Weh sustained an ACL injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

You guys look at all these numbers and have no clue how to correlate them with SOS or anything else

[JayDr3am]

Must admit I jumped too soon at 7.5 but I'll def add more if it hits 9.5 and I can buy to 10 potentially.

i wouldnt add more.. i would hedge out or just leave it. its the middle of the week.very early. too early to be putting down serious dough on this game

[jeffchitown]

You guys look at all these numbers and have no clue how to correlate them with SOS or anything else

Well anyhow I wish you best of luck tonight. I'd prefer people on this board were thinking the same about this game but that is why there is a line. A line is meant to divide people in what side they think will win.

[TPowell]

Interesting, line climbed to 9 at some shops and back down to 7 flat in less than an hour. Some sharp action on ASU if I had to guess

[jtoler]

Dang its nosediving.

[jtoler]

Well anyhow I wish you best of luck tonight. I'd prefer people on this board were thinking the same about this game but that is why there is a line. A line is meant to divide people in what side they think will win.

I hate when everyone is thinking the same, I like some discussion I like being the contrarian. If power ratings correct this number is off when you factor in home field and way off in you factor in SOS.

[JayDr3am]

Interesting, line climbed to 9 at some shops and back down to 7 flat in less than an hour. Some sharp action on ASU if I had to guess

[jeffchitown]

Wow that was a crazy line movement. I'll admit I'm worried now unless it was artificial to create late movement on ark st.

[Goatboy]

If you are smart you will look who Ark. State has played, they have played WAY better teams . Top notch teams toledo, Auburn, Utah State, its no wonder they are 0-4...big pay checks for getting their asses beat might be a closer game then you think