NCAA week 5 (sept 29-oct 1)

phil_abuster · 09-26-16, 04:27 PM

i do not see the badgers being a 2 score underdog on the road after having just whacked sparty 30-6 ON THE ROAD!
real chance of another upset here too, not likely, but wouldnt surprise me. certainly possible.
i will not underestimate the badgers anymore.
they appear to b the best team which nobody is talking about.
michigan is very good. but untested this yr vs a good team.
the highest rated team michigan has played so far r the game but mediocre buffaloes, who they only beat by 17
now they face a MUCH STRONGER opponent than the buffaloes and they are still laying 11 pts??
what huge factor am i completely missing?
whereas the badgers have played and beat 2 highly rated teams, the latter by 24 pts on the road!
injuries dont appear to b a big concern at this time
i stated here on saturday that i believe this line should only be -6!
good line value on the underdog here!
a close game either way seems to me to b the most likely scenario here between 2 bigten powers

if u r also on this pick i wish u success

phil_abuster · 09-26-16, 05:15 PM

i took the nittany-lions becuz i believe they r the better team and playing on home field.
they have some injury concerns on D but the gophers have even more injury concerns!
they lost narrowly on the road at pitt, as a result of net -2 turnovers.
so, bad luck there, cuz that could have just as easily been a road win against an opponent rated about the same as minnesota!
their 7 point win over temple at home should have been greater but for net -2 turnovers
again, bad luck, cuz we must NOT expect the same bad luck every game. if anything they r due for a turnaround in the turnover department. even if the turnovers were even in those two games then they win both handily imo
gophers likely overrated due to 3-0 record. look closely. all 3 games on home turf. all 3 games were vs weak opponents. 2 of the 3 were won by only a single possesion difference - which we might expect to flip the other way when played on the road!
and in this case they will be facing a much, MUCH stronger opponent than colorado state!
line should be nittany-lions -6.5 or -7 imo, so this has line value as well!
compare the injury reports on donbest . c

if u r also on this pick i wish u success

phil_abuster · 09-26-16, 05:50 PM

mountaineers -3 looks to b good value imo
good home team! and laying only 3 against an opponent who is rated lower!
they were 6-1 at home last yr and won those by at least 5 pts,
aside from an OT loss to a ranked team.
tough at home!
and....this is a revenge game for the mountaineers who lost by only a single point in december last yr at ksu!!
ksu is hanging their hat on 2 blowout wins AT HOME vs cupcakes and a 13 pt road loss at stanford.
wva defeated byu by 3 at a neutral site. byu about the same as ksu.

if u r also on this pick i wish u success

phil_abuster · 09-26-16, 06:35 PM

demon-deacons look to b very good value here for my money imo

wake: 4-0, returning 16 starters and their junior qb, ranked #7 in "returning production"
nc st: 2-1, returning 14 starters not the qb, ranked a lowly #91 in "returning production"

injuries reports not expect to b an issue
wolfpack beatup 2 cupcakes, and lost by 3 on the road to mediocre 2-2 pirates.
that effort likely to be a 7-10 pt loss against a better team like wake is this yr.

decons have defeated 2 teams rated about the same as wolfpack: duke and indiana (2-1) - and both wins were on the road by 10 and 5 pts respectively!
decons have the "extra game-played" experience this yr, though wolfpack do have the extra prep time for this match.
this is a payback game for wake after losing at home by an embarrassing 18 pts last yr and they r a much better team this yr!

i and many others have wake rated higher than wolfpack in acc.
i think nc state at home, facing a better team, should be laying no more than 4.
i expect a cover and see a win as a toss-up.
of course anything can happen in any game. turnovers. fluke plays. like the oklahoma state-chippewas fiasco.
the probable outcome doesnt always occcur, but i place my prob to cover at 2 to 1 here
so i put a little more on this one at +10.5

if u r also on this pick i wish U success

phil_abuster · 09-26-16, 07:06 PM

fresno bulldogs getting good line value!
they travel to unlv. both teams 1-3 and they suck.
but fresno may not suck as bad as unlv.
they both beatup on a cupcake.
but bulldogs lost to 2 undefeated squads, toledo and nebraska, and lost in ot to mediocre tulsa last game. fresno suck but r improving.
unlv was blown by ucla, lost to mediocre cmu, and then lost in ot AT HOME to another bad team (idaho)
so just in their previous game, fresno lost in ot to a better opponent,
while unlv lost in ot at home to a weaker opponent!
many have fresno rated higher than unlv
yet weakass unlv is laying 10 pts against arguably a slightly better opp ???

i always find it really tough laying double-digits on a weak team (like unlv)
the opponent is usually better value getting 2 scores!

injury reports dont appear to b any concern
i think the line should b no more than -4 here!
ultimately the result could go against me but i like my chances, maybe 2 to 1!

if u r also on this pick i wish U success

phil_abuster · 09-27-16, 02:35 PM

adding:
midshipmen +7.5 *

i like their chances AT a slightly lesser-rated opponent and getting more than 7 pts!
they r both 3-0 and this will b the toughest opponent either has faced thus far
but i think navy played a very slightly tougher sched, hence a slightly higher rating

falcons won their last game by 7 on the road but it was even play and falcons were fortunate to gain +2 net turnovers , which proved to be the difference, as that game could easily have been a AF loser
midshipmen won their last game also by 7 also on the road despite -2 net turnovers against them!!
midshipmen outplayed tulane and should have won by 14 .

falcons could b hurting on D - particularly secondary

yes this is a revenge game for the falcons
otoh midshipmen have had an extra week to prepare for this game and i have to figure playing other academies r their rivalry games which they put everything into. so having that extra week to heal bruises and prepare is probably a stronger advantage than usual

this game is likely a coin tosser imo so getting +7.5 is very good line value
i may even play navy on the ml later

if u r also on this pick i wish U success

phil_abuster · 09-28-16, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by phil_abuster

i took the nittany-lions becuz i believe they r the better team and playing on home field.
they have some injury concerns on D but the gophers have even more injury concerns!
they lost narrowly on the road at pitt, as a result of net -2 turnovers.
so, bad luck there, cuz that could have just as easily been a road win against an opponent rated about the same as minnesota!
their 7 point win over temple at home should have been greater but for net -2 turnovers
again, bad luck, cuz we must NOT expect the same bad luck every game. if anything they r due for a turnaround in the turnover department. even if the turnovers were even in those two games then they win both handily imo
gophers likely overrated due to 3-0 record. look closely. all 3 games on home turf. all 3 games were vs weak opponents. 2 of the 3 were won by only a single possesion difference - which we might expect to flip the other way when played on the road!
and in this case they will be facing a much, MUCH stronger opponent than colorado state!
line should be nittany-lions -6.5 or -7 imo, so this has line value as well!
compare the injury reports on donbest . c

if u r also on this pick i wish u success

this is definitely a best bet for me!
u may also wanna take a closer look
look at the gophers injury report! holy effing sh*t, batman!
unless i am totally missing something, their defense may b on life-support!
recent occurances mean they will roll into university park without the following mix of starters and backups - mostly on defense!:
2 cb suspended
1 db suspended
1 DL suspended
2 LBs out due to injury
1 DE out due to injury
1 cb out due to injury
1 db out due to injury
1 s out due to injury
so, 10 on defense who r ruled OUT -- 6 in the secondary.
and on offense they will b missing a TE and possibly 2 OLs!
"linebacker U" meanwhile has just a few on d listed as "questionable"
im not one to look a gift-horse in the mouth
a better team, playing on home turf, facing a beatup & depleted defense, and only laying -3 ??
sure i could still lose. upsets do occur every weekend
but my money says this bet has a 3 to 1 chance of covering 3

phil_abuster · 09-29-16, 07:03 PM

adding:
uconn-hou ovr 49

phil_abuster · 09-30-16, 08:55 PM

adding:
byu cougars -3
i have this rated as close to even w/ byu rated slightly higher despite a 1-3 record
3 of their 4 games were on the road and 3 of their 4 games were against good opps and even then they were all extremely close losses! that 1-3 start could just as easily have been 4-0!
rockets 3-0 start against cupcakes would b expected. but the w-l records cause a slight overrating on toledo and an UNDESERVED underrating on byu! this team is worth about 6 at home anyway imo, so i feel they should be -6.5 favs. i bet the cougars to turn it around. rockets r not facing a 4th consecutive cupcake this time and they r on the road.
if u r also on this pick i wish U success

i won last night and am pulling for my huskies tonite!

SBRMAN23 · 10-01-16, 03:16 AM

Good luck man I like your insights into the games your picking

WolverineFan · 10-01-16, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by phil_abuster

i do not see the badgers being a 2 score underdog on the road after having just whacked sparty 30-6 ON THE ROAD!
real chance of another upset here too, not likely, but wouldnt surprise me. certainly possible.
i will not underestimate the badgers anymore.
they appear to b the best team which nobody is talking about.
michigan is very good. but untested this yr vs a good team.
the highest rated team michigan has played so far r the game but mediocre buffaloes, who they only beat by 17
now they face a MUCH STRONGER opponent than the buffaloes and they are still laying 11 pts??
what huge factor am i completely missing?
whereas the badgers have played and beat 2 highly rated teams, the latter by 24 pts on the road!
injuries dont appear to b a big concern at this time
i stated here on saturday that i believe this line should only be -6!
good line value on the underdog here!
a close game either way seems to me to b the most likely scenario here between 2 bigten powers

if u r also on this pick i wish u success

Colorado is a very underrated team jus beat oregon on rd with there backup qb and will make some noise n pac12. Jus seems to me after wisky beat 2 good teams on rd y n the world r they getting 11 pts?? I tend believe their begging ya take wisky.. They lost there best player on Defense and their qb is starting just his 2nd game and Michigan DC blitzs almost everyplay..michigan has best 3rd down defense n country and dont think wisky has atheltes to consistently make 10/12 play drives on this team..i think only way wisky covers if they get lucky like they did against mich st and get 3 or 4 turnovers ..goodluck and im jus gonna b sitting bk and enjoying this one..BOL

phil_abuster · 10-01-16, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by SBRMAN23

Good luck man I like your insights into the games your picking

thanks!

adding:
2half pirates -3.5

phil_abuster · 10-01-16, 12:53 PM

adding:
2half owls -4

MikeyD323 · 10-01-16, 12:57 PM

Saw your writeups after i took PSU and WVU this morning. Same type of analysis as you. Lines too low to pass up when both of these teams are excellent at performing better at home. Think they win handily. Appreciate your writeups. Lets goooo!

phil_abuster · 10-01-16, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by MikeyD323

Saw your writeups after i took PSU and WVU this morning. Same type of analysis as you. Lines too low to pass up when both of these teams are excellent at performing better at home. Think they win handily. Appreciate your writeups. Lets goooo!

well in that case i really hope U win your psu and wvu bets!

adding:
2half bluedevils -3 +100
down 10 pts at half at home to a weaker team.
play is about even but the real diff is duke gave up 4 net Ts !!!
i wouldnt expect that to continue. if anything, duke is due a couple breaks vs a weaker team