****** College Totals ******

[doubledime]

Nice weekend DD. I'm not sure how I overlooked this game when I was looking over the board for my own plays. By the time you asked me about it yesterday it was too late for me to look at it (out of the house + drinking). But I just went back through my numbers and this is definitely one I should have looked into closer, but didn't. Very nice call.

Much more continued success!

There are so many games on a Saturday it's hard to handicap them all. You probably do as I do, and that's to isolate certain games and dig down further to see if there is any value in that game. I will be bouncing more games off of you throughout the season if you don't mind.

[doubledime]

My NFL thread is up for those of you interested.

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

There are so many games on a Saturday it's hard to handicap them all. You probably do as I do, and that's to isolate certain games and dig down further to see if there is any value in that game. I will be bouncing more games off of you throughout the season if you don't mind.

In 2 weeks I should start posting the simulated results from my computer model. I use those to help identify potential plays and narrow down the card. I look forward to discussing more games throughout the season. Those kinds of things make us all better.

[doubledime]

In 2 weeks I should start posting the simulated results from my computer model. I use those to help identify potential plays and narrow down the card. I look forward to discussing more games throughout the season. Those kinds of things make us all better.

Will that simulate totals also?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Will that simulate totals also?

Yes sir.

[doubledime]

Yes sir.

If I may ask, is it a program that runs all the games and predicts a scores? Or do you pick and choose which games to run?

Not prying, just curious.

[HeeluvaGuy]

If I may ask, is it a program that runs all the games and predicts a scores? Or do you pick and choose which games to run?

Not prying, just curious.

I run all but the added games (may have some of those this year too, but they can be a pain in the ass). It's not super complicated. It's a model based on opponent power rankings. I've added some things over the years such as home/away and recency components. I actually end up with 9 lines from each game that I then mix in with some eye of newt to come up with a composite line. Most of it is science, but there's some art to it still.

I should also point out that I don't use it exclusively. It's one tool that I use along with a host of other factors.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Any thoughts for this week yet?

[doubledime]

Any thoughts for this week yet?

Giving a good look to PS/Mich over.... thoughts?

[reigle9]

Played Nev-Pur o58'

PSU should get torched, all 3 starting LB's out. Walk-on starting in the middle, although he looked better than the 4*'s beside him last week. Should be able to put some points on the board too. I'm not playing it, but over makes sense.

[BigdaddyQH]

Penn State-Michigan looks like a solid Over play. Penn State can score, and that crazy Jim Harbaugh will score 100 on a team if he can. He loves to rub it in, no matter who it is or where they may play that team next season. The line is down to 57 all over Vegas (56 1/2 at Westgate), so now is a good time to play the game, if you are going to play it at all.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

No play on Thursday's game.

good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

I kinda like the u58.5 tonight but not enough to play it. I'll take a look at your PSU/Mich game. I have about 8 games circled at home, and I can't remember if that's one of them. I'll probably end up with 2 or 3 plays by Friday night/Saturday morning.

[doubledime]

I kinda like the u58.5 tonight but not enough to play it. I'll take a look at your PSU/Mich game. I have about 8 games circled at home, and I can't remember if that's one of them. I'll probably end up with 2 or 3 plays by Friday night/Saturday morning.

You were right on with the under last night, I hope you played it.

[HeeluvaGuy]

You were right on with the under last night, I hope you played it.

Wish I had. There was a flukey 9 points scored at the end of the first half, or this one would have been even lower.

I like the under tonight in Salt Lake too. A lot like GT last night, Utah should try to shorten the game and keep the ball away from SC's offense. Both of the defenses allow fewer ppg than their opponents average, and both offenses are in the bottom half of the NCAA in plays per game. Plus you've got turmoil and a new QB with SC to go along with rainy conditions. Haven't decided if I'll play it, but thought I'd share my thoughts.

The under was also 6-1 last season at Rice-Eccles and is 2-0 there so far this season.

[doubledime]

Good evening,

Friday's Play:

USC/Utah under 46

Good luck

[doubledime]

Wish I had. There was a flukey 9 points scored at the end of the first half, or this one would have been even lower.

I like the under tonight in Salt Lake too. A lot like GT last night, Utah should try to shorten the game and keep the ball away from SC's offense. Both of the defenses allow fewer ppg than their opponents average, and both offenses are in the bottom half of the NCAA in plays per game. Plus you've got turmoil and a new QB with SC to go along with rainy conditions. Haven't decided if I'll play it, but thought I'd share my thoughts.

The under was also 6-1 last season at Rice-Eccles and is 2-0 there so far this season.

Glad you like it also. I see quite a few trends and the weather should be crap, plus the things you mentioned.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I ended up grabbing it at 47 for something to watch while I work through Saturday's games. Good luck this weekend!

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday: 0-1
YTD: 3-1

Back later with Saturday's card

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Saturday afternoon plays:

PS #323/Mich #324 over 56
Iowa #325/Rut #326 under 56

Back later with tonight's plays

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

DD - Do you have any thoughts on the Pitt/UNC total? I like the over here, but not sure if I will pull the trigger.

[doubledime]

DD - Do you have any thoughts on the Pitt/UNC total? I like the over here, but not sure if I will pull the trigger.

I have not looked at that one earlier, but I do know in conference games both teams are each 4-1 to the over and both have many more trends to the over than the under. Heading out for a couple of hours and will be back to work on the night card.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks. After digging a little more I decided on the over and am adding it to my thread. Have a good day!

[mohye1980]

Dd what's your lean on the Arizona state total? Over seems tempting in that game.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

The Saturday evening play:

Wash #371/AZ #372 over 58

Good luck

[doubledime]

Dd what's your lean on the Arizona state total? Over seems tempting in that game.

I was out most of the afternoon and just got back. No opinion. Lots of points but they could score 100. Sorry can't help you out.

Good luck if you play it.

[Capybara]

Good morning,

Saturday afternoon plays:

PS #323/Mich #324 over 56
Iowa #325/Rut #326 under 56

Back later with tonight's plays

Good luck

Great job on these, Mr. Dime!!

[hit_me90]

2 great heart attack winners and 1 easyyyyyyyyyyy one thanks so much

[mohye1980]

You are money dd!!! Thanks for sharing man.

[doubledime]

Great job on these, Mr. Dime!!

Thanks capy

[doubledime]

2 great heart attack winners and 1 easyyyyyyyyyyy one thanks so much

I have said this before, I post them and check the scores, I almost never watch them, but thanks for the recap.

[doubledime]

You are money dd!!! Thanks for sharing man.

You're welcome

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday: 3-0
YTD: 6-1

Back later with Sunday's card on my NFL thread

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

We are passing on Thursday

There is a good chance we will have a position on one of the games on Friday

Good luck

[mohye1980]

Good afternoon,

We are passing on Thursday

There is a good chance we will have a position on one of the games on Friday

Good luck

Mover 52 byu looks good tomorrow